Mixed Picture For Fed: June Payrolls Rise More Than Expected, Unemployment Rate Ticks Up, Wage Growth Slows
Mixed Picture For Fed: June Payrolls Rise More Than Expected, Unemployment Rate Ticks Up, Wage Growth Slows
The official June labor market report for the United States indicates mixed conditions, showing robust employment growth but a slowdown in wage increases, which may support expectations for upcoming interest rate cuts.
美国6月份官方劳工市场报告表明形势复杂，显示就业增长强劲但工资增长放缓，这可能支持未来降息的预期。
In June, the U.S. economy added 206,000 new jobs, a reduction from the downwardly revised 218,000 in May, according to data released Friday.
根据周五公布的数据，6月份美国经济新增了20.6万个就业岗位，比5月份下调后的21.8万个岗位减少，
June's Employment Situation: Key Highlights
6月份就业形势：重点亮点
- Nonfarm payrolls increased by 206,000 last month, slowing down by 12,000 from May, but above economist expectations of 189,000, with predictions ranging from 150,000 to 237,000.
- The unemployment rate ticked slightly higher from 4% to 4.1% against expectations of an unchanged reading.
- Wage growth showed signs of cooling. Average hourly earnings advanced by 0.3% on month-on-month basis, decelerating from May's 0.4%, in line with expectations.
- Annually, average hourly earnings were 3.9% higher compared to June 2023, declining from May's 4.1% and matching expectations.
- 上个月非农业人口就业岗位增加了20.6万个，比5月份减少了1.2万个，但高于经济学家预期的18.9万个，预计范围在15万到23.7万之间。
- 失业率从4%略微上升至4.1%，与预期的持平。
- 工资增长显示出放缓的迹象。平均每小时收入环比增长0.3%，与5月份0.4%的增长放缓持平，符合预期。
- 年平均每小时收入较2023年6月增长3.9%，较5月份的4.1%下降，符合预期。
| June 2024 | Consensus | May 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nonfarm payrolls | 206,000 | 189,000 | 218,000 (downwardly revised from 272,000) |
| Unemployment rate | 4.1% | 4% | 4% |
| Average hourly earnings (m/m) | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.4% |
| Average hourly earnings (y/y) | 3.9% | 3.9% | 4.1% |
| 2024年6月 | 共识 | 2024年5月 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 非农业就业岗位 | 206,000 | 189,000 | 218,000 （从272,000下调） |
| 失业率 | 4.1% | 4% | 4% |
| 平均每小时收入（环比） | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.4% |
| 平均每小时收入（同比） | 3.9% | 3.9% | 4.1% |
Market Reactions
市场反应
Before the June jobs report, traders had assigned a 73% chance of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September and factored in 52 basis points of cuts — implying two rate cuts — by the end of the year.
在6月份就业报告之前，交易员们认为，联邦储备委员会在9月份降息的可能性有73%，并将在今年年底的基础上削减52个基点，即意味着将降息两次。
The cooler-than-expected labor market data increases the likelihood the Federal Reserve will reduce borrowing costs if inflation trends remain benign, to avoid an undue economic hurdle.
超出预期的劳工市场数据增加了联邦储备委员会在通货膨胀趋势保持温和的情况下降低借贷成本的可能性，以避免不必要的经济障碍。
The market reacted positively to the June jobs report. The dollar and Treasury yields fell, indicating growing confidence in imminent interest rate cuts. Futures on major U.S. indices rose in Friday's premarket trading.
市场对6月就业报告做出了积极反应。美元和国债收益率下跌，表明对即将到来的降息充满信心。主要美国指数期货在周五的盘前交易中上涨。
On Tuesday, ahead of the Fourth of July market closure, major equity averages, as tracked by the Invesco QQQ Trust (NASDAQ:QQQ) and the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY), closed at record highs.
在7月4日市场关闭之前的周二，由Invesco QQQ Trust（NASDAQ：QQQ）和SPDR S＆P 500 ETF Trust（NYSE：SPY）跟踪的主要股票均价创下历史新高。
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图片来自Shutterstock。