Verra Mobility's estimated fair value is US$46.30 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity
Current share price of US$27.59 suggests Verra Mobility is potentially 40% undervalued
The US$26.83 analyst price target for VRRM is 42% less than our estimate of fair value
How far off is Verra Mobility Corporation (NASDAQ:VRRM) from its intrinsic value? Using the most recent financial data, we'll take a look at whether the stock is fairly priced by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. This will be done using the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. Models like these may appear beyond the comprehension of a lay person, but they're fairly easy to follow.
We generally believe that a company's value is the present value of all of the cash it will generate in the future. However, a DCF is just one valuation metric among many, and it is not without flaws. For those who are keen learners of equity analysis, the Simply Wall St analysis model here may be something of interest to you.
The Model
We're using the 2-stage growth model, which simply means we take in account two stages of company's growth. In the initial period the company may have a higher growth rate and the second stage is usually assumed to have a stable growth rate. In the first stage we need to estimate the cash flows to the business over the next ten years. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.
Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, and so the sum of these future cash flows is then discounted to today's value:
10-year free cash flow (FCF) estimate
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
Levered FCF ($, Millions)
US$209.1m
US$259.0m
US$296.4m
US$328.5m
US$355.8m
US$379.0m
US$399.0m
US$416.6m
US$432.4m
US$447.0m
Growth Rate Estimate Source
Analyst x3
Analyst x1
Est @ 14.45%
Est @ 10.83%
Est @ 8.30%
Est @ 6.52%
Est @ 5.28%
Est @ 4.41%
Est @ 3.80%
Est @ 3.37%
Present Value ($, Millions) Discounted @ 6.8%
US$196
US$227
US$243
US$252
US$256
US$255
US$251
US$246
US$239
US$231
("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St) Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = US$2.4b
The second stage is also known as Terminal Value, this is the business's cash flow after the first stage. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country's GDP growth. In this case we have used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (2.4%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year 'growth' period, we discount future cash flows to today's value, using a cost of equity of 6.8%.
Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= US$10b÷ ( 1 + 6.8%)10= US$5.3b
The total value is the sum of cash flows for the next ten years plus the discounted terminal value, which results in the Total Equity Value, which in this case is US$7.7b. To get the intrinsic value per share, we divide this by the total number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of US$27.6, the company appears quite undervalued at a 40% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Remember though, that this is just an approximate valuation, and like any complex formula - garbage in, garbage out.
NasdaqCM:VRRM Discounted Cash Flow July 6th 2024
Important Assumptions
Now the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate, and of course, the actual cash flows. If you don't agree with these result, have a go at the calculation yourself and play with the assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Verra Mobility as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 6.8%, which is based on a levered beta of 0.967. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.
SWOT Analysis for Verra Mobility
Strength
No major strengths identified for VRRM.
Weakness
Earnings declined over the past year.
Interest payments on debt are not well covered.
Shareholders have been diluted in the past year.
Opportunity
Annual earnings are forecast to grow faster than the American market.
Trading below our estimate of fair value by more than 20%.
Have VRRM insiders been buying lately?
Threat
Debt is not well covered by operating cash flow.
Annual revenue is forecast to grow slower than the American market.
Is VRRM well equipped to handle threats?
Next Steps:
Although the valuation of a company is important, it is only one of many factors that you need to assess for a company. It's not possible to obtain a foolproof valuation with a DCF model. Instead the best use for a DCF model is to test certain assumptions and theories to see if they would lead to the company being undervalued or overvalued. If a company grows at a different rate, or if its cost of equity or risk free rate changes sharply, the output can look very different. Why is the intrinsic value higher than the current share price? For Verra Mobility, there are three relevant items you should further research:
Risks: Take risks, for example - Verra Mobility has 4 warning signs (and 1 which is significant) we think you should know about.
Future Earnings: How does VRRM's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!
PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every American stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content?Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com
