Bank Earnings Preview: Analyst Reveals 3 Favorites, But Downgrades JPMorgan And 2 Others
Bank Earnings Preview: Analyst Reveals 3 Favorites, But Downgrades JPMorgan And 2 Others
As Wall Street gears up for the Q2 earnings season, all eyes are on three major banks set to report their results on Friday, July 12: JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE:JPM), Citigroup Inc. (NYSE:C), and Wells Fargo & Co. (NYSE:WFC).
随着华尔街进入Q2季度盈利季，所有目光都聚焦于7月12日星期五公布其成果的三家主要银行：摩根大通（NYSE：JPM），花旗集团（NYSE：C）和富国银行（NYSE：WFC）。
Wolfe Research recently released a comprehensive analysis of the upcoming bank earnings, highlighting potential winners and underperformers in the sector.
Wolfe Research最近发布了一份关于未来银行业盈利的全面分析，重点分析了板块中的潜在赢家和表现不佳者。
Steven Chubak, analyst at Wolfe Research, shared updated preferences on bank stocks in a detailed note this past Sunday.
Wolfe Research的分析师Steven Chubak在上周日的详细论文中分享了有关银行股票的更新偏好。
At the start of the year, Wolfe Research was bullish on banks benefiting from a prolonged period of high-interest rates, particularly JPMorgan. However, with the Federal Reserve likely to begin easing rates, the outlook has shifted.
在年初，Wolfe Research看好银行股从长期高利率受益，特别是看好摩根大通。然而，随着联邦储备委员会可能开始降息，前景已经发生了变化。
Wolfe Research's Top Picks
Wolfe Research的首选股票
Chubak's revised strategy now emphasizes banks and brokers with unique Net Interest Income (NII) advantages and attractive valuations relative to growth. His top picks include Bank of America (NYSE:BAC), Charles Schwab Corp. (NYSE:SCHW), and LPL Financial Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ:LPLA).
Chubak的修订策略现在强调具有独特净利息收入（NII）优势和有吸引力估值相对于增长的银行和券商。他的首选股包括美国银行（NYSE：BAC），嘉信理财股份有限公司（NYSE：SCHW）和LPL财务控股公司（NASDAQ：LPLA）。
- Bank of America: Expected to benefit from asset repricing and liability optimization, with a projected 13% upside to 2026 earnings estimates.
- Charles Schwab: Favored for its strong seasonality in the second half of the year and significant upside potential of approximately 35% to 2026 consensus estimates.
- LPL Financial: Highlighted for its widening organic growth gap compared to peers and benefits from a steeper yield curve.
- 美国银行：预计受到资产重新定价和负债优化的惠及，预计2026年盈利预测将增长13％。
- 嘉信理财：因其下半年强劲的季节性和约35％的2026年共识估值潜力而备受青睐。
- LPL财务控股公司：因与同行相比扩大的有机增长差距和利益于更陡峭的收益率曲线而受到关注。
Chubak emphasizes that retail brokers remain a preferred sub-sector within the rate-sensitive coverage due to better fundamentals and seasonally stronger performance in the second half of the year. However, he remains cautious on certain names due to evolving market dynamics and competitive pressures.
Chubak强调，由于更好的基本面和下半年季节性表现更强，零售经纪商仍然是利率敏感类别中的首选子部门。但是，由于市场动态和竞争压力的不断演变，他对某些名称仍然持谨慎态度。
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阅读也可参考：分析师称英伟达可能在2025年赚取5美元每股，供应检查较两个月前显著增加
Here's a breakdown of Wolfe Research's top picks and their potential upside:
以下是Wolfe Research的首选股票及其潜在上涨空间：
| Bank | Previous Rating | New Rating | Old PT | New PT | Current Price | Upside/Downside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bank of America | Outperform | Outperform | $42 | $49 | $40.41 | 21% |
| Charles Schwab Corp. | Outperform | Outperform | $82 | $90 | $73.20 | 23% |
| LPL Financial Holdings Inc. | Outperform | Outperform | $326 | $347 | $276.01 | 26% |
| 银行 | 上一个评级 | 新评级 | 旧价格目标 | 新价格目标 | 现价 | 上行/下行空间 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 美国银行 | 跑赢大盘 | 跑赢大盘 | $42 | $49 | $40.41 | 21% |
| 嘉信理财 | 跑赢大盘 | 跑赢大盘 | $82 | $90 | $73.20 | 23% |
| LPL财务控股公司 | 跑赢大盘 | 跑赢大盘 | $326 | $347 | $276.01 | 26% |
Wolfe Research's Downgrades
沃尔夫研究的下调评级
The report also includes some notable downgrades:
该报告还包括一些值得注意的下调评级：
- JPMorgan Chase (JPM): Downgraded to Peer Perform from Outperform due to concerns over its exposure to rate cuts and its stretched valuation following a significant rally. Chubak notes that while JPMorgan has outperformed significantly, the stock's valuation now appears stretched, and potential rate cuts could impact its NII.
- Raymond James Financial (NYSE:RJF): Downgraded to Peer Perform due to emerging risks affecting its growth, including net new asset headwinds and compensation pressures.
- State Street Corp. (NYSE:STT): Downgraded to Underperform as it faces significant downside risk to 2026 consensus estimates, despite positive EPS revisions.
- 摩根大通（JPM）：由于对降息的暴露和显著上涨后的估值被拉伸的担忧，从跑赢大盘下调至与大盘持平。 Chubak指出，尽管摩根大通表现显著，但股票估值现在似乎被拉伸，潜在的降息可能会影响其NII。
- 瑞杰金融（纽交所：RJF）：由于新兴风险影响其成长，包括净新资产不足和薪酬压力，从跑赢大盘下调至与大盘持平。
- 道富银行（纽交所：STT）：尽管EPS呈现积极修正，但仍面临着2026年共识预测的重大下行风险，因此从卖出评级下调。
Here's a detailed table summarizing the downgrades:
以下是总结下调评级的详细表格：
| Bank | Previous Rating | New Rating | Old PT | New PT | Current Price | Upside/Downside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JPMorgan Chase | Outperform | Peer Perform | $216 | $226 | $204.79 | 10% |
| Raymond James Financial | Outperform | Peer Perform | $140 | $135 | $119.51 | 13% |
| State Street | Peer Perform | Underperform | $81 | $73 | $73.72 | -1% |
| 银行 | 上一个评级 | 新评级 | 旧价格目标 | 新价格目标 | 现价 | 上行/下行空间 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 摩根大通 | 跑赢大盘 | 同业表现 | $216 | $226 | $204.79 | 10% |
| 瑞杰金融 | 跑赢大盘 | 同业表现 | 140美元 | $135 | $119.51 | 13% |
| 道富银行 | 同业表现 | 弱于市场表现 | $81 | $73 | $73.72 | -1% |
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图像由Midjourney通过人工智能创建。