GenAI Must Generate $600B A Year To Justify Hardware Costs, Sequoia Estimates: How Much Does Google Search Make?
GenAI Must Generate $600B A Year To Justify Hardware Costs, Sequoia Estimates: How Much Does Google Search Make?
Artificial intelligence (AI) has taken the markets by storm, catapulting several AI-related stocks to all-time highs.
人工智能已经风靡市场，推高了几只与人工智能有关的股票到历史高点。
Amid concerns that AI's rally is a "bubble," a new report from Sequoia Capital cast doubt on whether firms will ever be able to recoup hardware costs.
有人担心人工智能的涨势是“泡沫”，Sequoia Capital的一份新报告质疑公司是否能够收回硬体成本。
Sequoia's Report: A report from Sequoia Capital written by David Cahn estimated that AI needs to generate $600 billion a year to justify its immense hardware costs.
Sequoia Capital的一份由David Cahn撰写的报告估计，人工智能需要每年产生六千亿美元的收益来证明它巨大的硬体成本是值得的。
Cahn arrived at the $600 billion number by taking NVIDIA Corp's (NASDAQ:NVDA) fourth-quarter GPU revenue of $150 billion and doubling it to account for the cost of AI data centers. Cahn doubled the resulting $300 billion to account for a 50% gross margin for the end-user of the GPU.
Cahn通过将NVIDIA公司（纳斯达克上市公司NVDA）在第四季度GPU芯片的收益1500亿美元翻番来计算出6000亿美元的这个数字。Cahn将结果的3000亿美元翻番，以考虑GPU最终用户的50%毛利率。
GPU stockpiles have steadily increased as supply shortages have diminished.
由于供应短缺得到缓解，GPU（图像处理器）的库存稳步增加。
Cahn assumes that Alphabet Inc, Microsoft Corp, Apple Inc, Meta Platforms Inc, Oracle Corp, ByteDance, Alibaba Group, Tencent Holdings, X and Tesla Inc will generate a combined $100 billion from new AI-related revenue each year. The estimate creates a $500 billion gap between revenue and cost.
Cahn认为，Alphabet公司、微软公司、苹果公司、Meta Platforms Inc、Oracle公司、字节跳动、阿里巴巴集团、腾讯控股、X和特斯拉公司将每年产生1000亿美元的新的与人工智能相关的收益。这个估计产生了5000亿美元的营收和成本差距。
What About Google Search?: Alphabet Inc's flagship Google Search made $175 billion in 2023, according to company filings. Google is the world's preeminent search engine and captures a gigantic market share.
那么搜索引擎呢？：据公司文件显示，Alphabet公司的旗舰Google搜索在2023年的收益为1750亿美元。Google是全球最重要的搜索引擎，占据了巨大的市场份额。
Therefore, generative AI must generate nearly 3.5 times the annual revenue of Google Search to turn a profit, a tall task indeed.
因此，生成式人工智能必须产生将近谷歌搜索年收入的3.5倍，才能盈利，这无疑是一项艰巨的任务。
Market Implications: While some signs are encouraging that AI will eventually prove valuable to consumers, it is no sure thing that it will ever turn a profit over GPU stockpile costs.
虽然有一些迹象表明人工智能最终将对消费者产生价值，但并不确定它是否能够盈利，因为要消耗大量GPU库存的成本。
In determining the industry's prospects, experts (such as Forbes' Peter Cohan) have noted the importance of an "AI killer," a use case that is a clear, highly desirable value-add for consumers. A historical example is spreadsheets during the personal computing revolution.
在确定该行业前景时，专家们（如福布斯的彼得·科汉）注意到“AI killer”的重要性，这是对消费者来说具有明确、高度可取且附加价值的使用情况。个人计算机革命期间的电子表格就是一个历史性的例子。
No such feature exists yet, as customers currently seem reluctant to spend money on AI. It may be months or years before a killer use case exists, if ever. The release of OpenAI's long-awaited GPT-5 could serve as a potential catalyst if the release lives up to lofty expectations. Alternatively, AI's future use case may be far from our current expectations.
目前没有这样的功能，因为客户目前似乎不愿意在人工智能上花费金钱。如果OpenAI长期期望的GPt-5发布符合预期，可能会成为一个潜在的催化剂。或者，人工智能未来的使用情况可能与我们目前的预期有很大不同。
Now Read:
现在就阅读吧:
- Despite The Market Hype, Only 5% Of US Firms Use Generative AI In Production
- 尽管市场炒作，但只有5%的美国企业在生产中使用人工智能生成技术。
Image: Pixabay
图片：Pixabay