Mohamed El-Erian Sees Jerome Powell's 'Less Reassuring' Remarks On Inflation Due To Shift In Audience
Mohamed El-Erian Sees Jerome Powell's 'Less Reassuring' Remarks On Inflation Due To Shift In Audience
The testimony of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell to the Senate Banking Committee on Tuesday was less optimistic about inflation than his previous statements to central bankers, according to Mohamed El-Erian, the Chief Economic Advisor at Allianz.
根据安联公司首席经济顾问Mohamed El-Erian的说法,美联储主席鲍威尔周二在向参议院银行委员会作证时对通货膨胀的看法比他向其他中央银行家表述的要少乐观些。
What Happened: El-Erian took to social media platform X, to share his insights on Powell's remarks. He noted that Powell's written statement to the Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs characterized inflationary developments as "hav[ing] shown some modest further progress."
发生了什么:El-Erian在社交媒体平台X上分享了他对鲍威尔讲话的见解。他指出,鲍威尔在提交给参议院银行、住房和城市事务委员会的书面声明中,将通胀发展描述为“取得了一些温和的进展。”这比鲍威尔在一周前向其他中央银行家表达的更令人不太放心。
This was "less reassuring" than what Powell had conveyed to other central bankers a week earlier, where he had mentioned, "the disinflation trend shows signs of resuming."
这与Powell对其他中央银行家的讲话存在不同,他在那里提到,“通缩趋势呈现重新恢复的迹象。”El-Erian认为,这种语气变化可能是因为面向不同的受众,而不是Powell观点的重大转变。
El-Erian suggested that the change in tone could be attributed to the different audiences rather than a significant shift in Powell's view.
El-Erian建议,语气上的变化可能是由于不同的听众,而不是Powell观点的显著转变。
In his written statement to the US Senate's Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs (link below), #FederalReserve Chair Powell characterized inflationary developments as "hav[ing] shown some modest further progress."
— Mohamed A. El-Erian (@elerianm) July 9, 2024
While this is less reassuring than what Powell said a... pic.twitter.com/21zdDkQcFz
亲爱的读者,我们正在从试图获得提交到参议院银行、住房和城市事务委员会的美国联邦储备委员会主席鲍威尔书面证词的重要方面中退出。您可以在此处阅读官方版本。
— Mohamed A. El-Erian (@elerianm) 2024年7月9日
虽然这比Powell之前说的少令人放心... pic.twitter.com/21zdDkQcFz
Why It Matters: Former U.S. Treasury Secretary Larry Summers recently criticized the Federal Reserve's optimistic stance on inflation, warning that the central bank is underestimating the long-term interest rates necessary to curb inflation. Summers dismissed the recent data indicating a slowdown in inflation as a temporary effect of post-pandemic price normalization.
为什么重要:前美国财政部长拉里·萨默斯最近批评了美联储对通货膨胀的乐观态度,警告中央银行低估了遏制通胀所需的长期利率。萨默斯对表明通胀放缓的最新数据不屑一顾,认为这是疫情后价格正常化的暂时影响。
Additionally, during his semiannual testimony before the Senate Banking Committee, Powell reiterated that a policy rate cut would not be "appropriate" until the Fed gains greater confidence that inflation is heading sustainably toward 2%. He stressed that reducing policy restraint too soon could stall or even reverse the progress made on inflation. Powell's cautious stance aligns with his previous statements that an unexpected weakening in the labor market could lead to lower interest rates.
此外,在向参议院银行委员会发表半年度证言期间,鲍威尔重申,在美联储获得更高的信心,通胀正朝着可持续达到2%的目标行进之前,降息政策不会“合适”。他强调,过早地减少政策限制可能会停滞或甚至逆转通货膨胀取得的进展。鲍威尔的谨慎立场与他之前的声明相一致,即劳动力市场意外走弱可能导致利率下降。
In a recent interview, El-Erian suggested that the Federal Reserve should consider a rate cut in July if the PCE inflation data is favorable. However, he expressed skepticism about the likelihood of this happening, pointing to disagreements regarding inflation dynamics.
在最近的一次采访中,El-Erian建议,如果PCE通胀数据是有利的,美联储应该考虑在7月份降息。然而,他对此的可能性持怀疑态度,指出对于通胀动态存在分歧。
El-Erian noted that the economy is slowing down more rapidly than anticipated, suggesting that the central bank should consider earlier and faster rate cuts.
El-Erian指出,经济正在比预期更快地放缓,表明中央银行应考虑更早和更快的降息。
Investors are eagerly awaiting the June Consumer Price Index report to strengthen their expectations of interest rate cuts. Despite Powell's reiteration that it won't be appropriate to cut the federal funds rate until policymakers obtain "greater confidence" inflation is heading unequivocally toward the 2% target, market expectations currently place a high conviction on a September rate cut.
投资者正在热切地等待6月份的消费者价格指数报告,以加强他们对降息的预期。尽管鲍威尔重申,在决策者获得“更大信心”通胀正明确地行进朝着2%的目标时,降低联邦基金利率将不合适,但市场预期目前高度看好9月的降息。
Fed futures indicate a 71% chance of a rate cut at the Sept. 18 Fed meeting and factor in 50 basis points of rate reductions by year-end.
联邦基金期货预示着在9月18日的联邦公开市场委员会会议上降息的概率为71%,到年底将考虑降息50个基点。
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Image Via Shutterstock
图片来自Shutterstock。
This story was generated using Benzinga Neuro and edited by Kaustubh Bagalkote
本报道使用Benzinga Neuro生成,并由Kaustubh Bagalkote