Spotify's Long-Term Growth and Pricing Power Set to Boost Revenue: Analyst
Spotify's Long-Term Growth and Pricing Power Set to Boost Revenue: Analyst
KeyBanc analyst Justin Patterson reiterated an Overweight rating on Spotify Technology SA (NYSE:SPOT) with a price target of 410, up from $400.
KeyBanc分析师Justin Patterson重申对Spotify Technology SA（纽交所：SPOT）的超配（Overweight）评级，目标价410美元，较之前的400美元有所升高。
Patterson updated his model and framed vital factors to watch ahead of the print.
Patterson更新了他的模型，并概述了印刷前要注意的关键因素。
Given recent pricing changes, the analyst noted that the consensus may be too aggressive on third-quarter Premium Subscriber net adds.
鉴于近期定价变化，分析师指出，对于第三季度的高级订阅用户底线的共识可能过于激进。
While Patterson is mindful that near-term net add guidance can weigh on the stock, he noted that this misses the bigger picture.
虽然Patterson注意到近期增加用户数的指引会对股票造成压力，但他指出这掩盖了更大的问题。
The consensus appears too conservative on 2025 – 2026 revenue growth, gross margin, and operating margin, and valuation remains favorable for a consumer staple with pricing power, as per the analyst.
根据分析师的说法，共识对于2025至2026年营业收入增长、毛利率和营业利润率显得过于保守，而价格实力强劲的消费类稳定股票的估值仍相对有利。
The analyst raised his 2024, 2025, and 2026 revenue by ~1% annually.
分析师将他的2024年、2025年和2026年营业收入分别年均提高了约1%。
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Patterson now expects 15.6 billion euros, 18.3 billion euros, and 20.9 billion euros, reflecting higher Premium revenue from pricing and plan mix.
Patterson现在预计，由于定价和计划混合的原因，2024年至2026年共计为156亿欧元、183亿欧元和209亿欧元的高级收入将更高。
While the analyst's 2024 operating profit forecast declines by ~4% to 1.0 billion euros (margin of 6.5%) on higher social charges, his 2025 and 2026 operating profit forecasts increase by 2% and greater than 1% to reflect higher gross margin and operating leverage.
虽然该分析师的2024年营业利润预测因社会负担增加而下降了约4%，降至1亿欧元（利润率为6.5%），但他的2025年和2026年营业利润预测分别提高了2%和大于1%，以反映更高的毛利率和营业杠杆。
Patterson expects second-quarter MAUs to be in line at 631 million and an upward bias to his and Street Premium Subscribers of 245 million, equating to net adds of 16 million and 6 million, respectively.
Patterson预计第二季度的活跃用户数将达到6310万，并上升2450万用户，即分别增加了1600万和600万用户。
The analyst expects second-quarter revenue to be likely in line at ~3.8 billion euros—he expects Premium and Ad-Supported growth of +20% and +17% year-on-year, respectively.
分析师预计，第二季度的收入可能在38亿欧元左右，他预计高级和广告支持增长分别为+20%和+17%。
Patterson projects a gross margin of 28.3% versus a consensus of 28.1%. The analyst expects an operating margin below consensus due to social charges.
Patterson预计毛利率为28.3%，高于共识的28.1%。由于社会负担的原因，分析师预计营业利润率高于共识。
Patterson expects third-quarter revenue of 3.95 billion euros—4.0 billion euros, compared to his and the Street's forecasts of 3.97 billion euros and 4.0 billion euros. The lower forecast vs. consensus reflects more modest Ad-Supported revenue.
Patterson预计，第三季度的营业收入为39.5亿欧元至40亿欧元，而他和街坊的预测分别为39.7亿欧元和40亿欧元。相对共识的较低预测反映了更谨慎的广告收入。
Patterson projects softer MAU and Premium Subscriber net adds, given price increases.
Patterson预计，由于价格的上涨，月活跃用户数和高级订阅用户数的增长可能较为缓慢。
He is skeptical that Spotify guides to Visible Alpha consensus for 20 million MAU net adds and 6 million Premium Subscriber net adds. He noted that 16 million and 4 million, respectively, are more likely.
他对Spotify指导了Visible Alpha共识的2000万月活跃用户净增和600万高级订阅用户净增持怀疑态度。他指出，分别为1600万和400万才更有可能。
Patterson projects a gross margin of 28.9%.
Patterson预计毛利率为28.9%。
The analyst projects an operating profit of over 300 million euros. Given margin improvement, he noted that operating profit could exceed 300 million euros by 5-10%.
该分析师预计运营利润将超过30000万欧元。由于利润率的提高，他指出营业利润可能超过30000万欧元，增长5-10%。
Patterson noted that the degree of upside will be dictated by whether Spotify chooses to reinvest in marketing and whether there are any legal costs related to industry disputes.
Patterson指出，盈利增长的程度将由Spotify选择是否重新投资营销和是否涉及行业争端的法律费用来决定。
SPOT price action: Spotify shares traded lower by 0.38% at $310.38 at the last check on Wednesday.
SPOt的价格走势：周三最后一次检查时Spotify的股价下跌了0.38％至310.38美元。
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- Spotify Unveils New Basic Plan After Recent Premium Price Hike
- Spotify在最近的Premium价格上涨后推出了新的基本计划。
Photo courtesy of Spotify
照片来自Spotify