Inflation Data Sparks Rush For Gold, Real Estate, Treasuries, Yen: Traders See September Rate Cut As Done Deal
Inflation Data Sparks Rush For Gold, Real Estate, Treasuries, Yen: Traders See September Rate Cut As Done Deal
The stars seem to be aligned for a reduction in U.S. interest rates in about two months, as the June inflation report released Thursday may provide policymakers with the confidence that annual consumer price changes are finally trending toward the Fed's 2% target.
六月发布的通胀报告可能使政策制定者相信，年度消费者物价变化正朝着美联储的2%目标趋势，因此美国的利率可能在大约两个月内出现降低。
The inflation rate fell from 3.3% in May 2024 to 3% year-over-year in June 2024, the lowest since April 2021, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The outcome fell short of the estimated 3.1%. On a month-over-month basis, the consumer basket contracted by 0.1%, marking the first negative reading since May 2020.
根据劳工统计局的数据，2024年5月的通货膨胀率从3.3%降至2024年6月的3%，为2021年4月以来的最低点。结果低于预计的3.1%。从月初至月末，消费品篮的收缩率为0.1%，标志着自2020年5月以来的首次负增长。
The data sparked a surge in rate cut bets, triggering a rally in interest-rate-sensitive assets.
数据引发了降息赌注的激增，触发了利率敏感性资产的大涨。
Market-implied odds for a September rate cut increased from 71% to 91% following the inflation report, according to the CME Group's FedWatch tool. Additionally, the implied cuts by year-end rose to 65 basis points, suggesting between two and three rate cuts.
芝加哥商品交易所的FedWatch工具显示，通胀报告发布后，9月份降息的市场隐含概率从71%上升至91%。此外，到年底的隐含降息也上涨了65个基点，表明可能会有两到三次降息。
Investors Flock To Bonds, Low-Yield Currencies, Real Estate Stocks As Rate Cut Bets Rise
随着降息赌注的升级，投资者涌向债券、低收益货币、房地产股票。
Yields on two-year Treasury notes tumbled 10 basis points to 4.51% at 11 a.m. ET, on track to hit the lowest since March. 11. Yields on long-dated Treasuries also fell markedly, sending the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:TLT) up by 1.2%.
两年期国债收益率下跌了10个基点，至11:00am Et的4.51%，有望创下3月以来的最低点。长期国债的收益率也大幅下跌，导致纳指100etf-invesco qqq trust(etf代码NASDAQ:TLT)上涨了1.2%。
The U.S. dollar index (DXY), as tracked by the Invesco DB USD Index Bullish Fund ETF (NYSE:UUP), fell 0.6%, on track for the worst session since mid-May.
纽交所上的景顺Db美元指数看涨基金etf股票代码为(NYSE:UUP)的美元指数下跌了0.6%，创下自5月中旬以来最糟糕的交易日。
The low-yielding Japanese yen, tracked through the Invesco CurrencyShares Japanese Yen Trust (NYSE:FXY), rose 1.8%. The dollar-yen pair dropped to 158.73, marking the second-worst session year-to-date, as traders speculated that a potential Bank of Japan intervention accelerated the move, although authorities did not officially confirm it.
低利率的日元交易在纽约交易所上市的日元etf-currencyshares金融信托(NYSE:FXY)上涨了1.8%。美元兑日元汇率下跌到158.73，是今年迄今为止的第二个最糟糕的交易日。交易商们推测日本央行可能会进行干预，加速了此次波动，尽管有关当局并没有正式证实这一点。
Gold prices, as monitored through the SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:GLD), rallied 1.9% to $2,415 per ounce, marking the best-performing session since mid-December 2023 and nearing all-time highs.
通过SPDR黄金信托的黄金价格上涨了1.9%，至每盎司2415美元，创下了自2023年年底以来最佳业绩，接近历史最高水平。
The broader stock market fell, with the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY), falling 0.4%, and the tech-heavy Invesco QQQ Trust (NASDAQ:QQQ) tumbled 1.4%. Rate-sensitive equity sectors and industries reacted differently Thursday, with real estate stocks outperforming.
股市整体下跌，SPDR标普500etf信托(NYSE:SPY)下跌了0.4%，科技重组的纳指100etf-invesco qqq trust(NASDAQ:QQQ)暴跌1.4%。随着降息预期的提高，利率敏感性股票板块反应不同，房地产股票表现最好。
The Real Estate Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE:XLRE) rose 2.5% by 11 a.m. ET, outperforming all other S&P 500 sectors.
房地产选择性板块SPDR基金(NYSE:XLRE)于11:00am Et上涨2.5%，在所有标普500板块中表现最好。
Among industries, homebuilders, as tracked by the SPDR Homebuilders ETF (NYSE:XHB) soared 5.4%, on track for their best day since mid-December 2023.
房屋建筑板块，由SPDR房屋建筑etf基金(NYSE:XHB)跟踪，于12月中旬以来第一次大涨5.4%。
Chart: Rate-Sensitive Assets Rally After Cooler-Than-Expected June Inflation Report
图表：通胀报告后敏感资产的反弹
Image: Benzinga Pro
图片：Benzinga Pro
Read Now:
立即阅读：
- Biden Cheers Inflation Progress, Rate Cut Chorus Grows Louder Among 5 Economists: 'This Is Just What The JayMan Needed'
- 拜登欢呼通胀进展，经济学家中越来越多的呼声要求降息：这正是杰伊·鲍威尔所需要的。
Photo via Shutterstock.
图片来自shutterstock。