Could June Producer Inflation Data Dampen Market Enthusiasm For Rate-Cut Winners? 5 ETFs To Watch
Could June Producer Inflation Data Dampen Market Enthusiasm For Rate-Cut Winners? 5 ETFs To Watch
The larger-than-expected drop in the June Consumer Price Index inflation rate has fueled market expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.
六月消费者物价指数通胀率大幅低于预期，引发市场对美联储降息的预期。
Investors no longer seem to have doubts and are assigning a 91% implied probability that rate cuts will begin as early as September 2024.
投资者不再怀疑，已经给未来降息的概率90%以上的概率，认为最早将在2024年9月开始降息。
The upcoming Producer Price Index (PPI) inflation report, scheduled for release on Friday at 8:30 a.m. ET, will be crucial in determining whether producer price trends can continue to support rate-cut expectations or temper the optimism.
即将发布的生产者物价指数(PPI)通胀报告，将决定未来生产价格趋势是否支持降息预期或打消市场的乐观情绪，此数据发布时间为周五上午8:30美国东部时间。
June PPI Preview: What Economists Expect
6月PPI预览: 经济学家期望值
- Producer prices in June are expected to rise 0.1% on the month versus an unexpected 0.2% decline in May, according to economist consensus estimates, as tracked by TradingEconomics.
- On an annual basis, the PPI inflation is expected to accelerate from 2.2% to 2.3%.
- Excluding food and energy, core PPI is expected to advance by 0.2% month-over-month, accelerating from the previous flat reading.
- Annually, core producer prices are set to rise by 2.5%, up from 2.3% in May. That would mark the highest annual core producer inflation rate since August 2023.
- 根据TradingEconomics跟踪的经济学家共识预测，6月份生产者价格预计按月上涨0.1%，而5月份预期为下降0.2%，年化的PPI通胀预期从2.2%上升到2.3%。
- 从年份上看，PPI通胀预计从2.2%加速到2.3%。
- 除食品和能源外，核心PPI预计按月增长0.2%，超过之前的平盘水平。
- 从年化角度来看，核心生产者价格预计将上涨2.5%，高于5月份的2.3％，这将标志着自2023年8月以来最高的核心生产者通货膨胀率。
5 ETFs To Watch Friday
观察5种ETF周五的表现
On Thursday, traders favored markets poised to gain from future rate cuts, investing in sectors that could benefit from reduced borrowing costs, while penalizing assets that had already heavily discounted expectations of monetary policy shifts.
在周四，交易员青睐预期未来降息的市场，投资于可能从降低借款成本中获益的部门，同时惩罚已经充分折扣的货币政策转变预期的资产。
The producer inflation data will be pivotal in evaluating if this market momentum will persist.
生产者通货膨胀数据将是评估市场势头持续性的关键。
Among Thursday's top-performing exchange-traded funds, we can definitely mention:
在周四表现最佳的ETF中，我们可以提到:
- SPDR Homebuilders ETF (NYSE:XHB) rallying 6.1%
- Invesco Solar ETF (NYSE:TAN) rising 4.4%
- SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF (NYSE:KRE) up 4.2%
- iShares Russell 2000 ETF (NYSE:IWM) up 3.6%
- VanEck Gold Miners ETF (NYSE:GDX) up 2.9%
- SPDR 房屋建筑商ETF（NYSE：XHB）上涨6.1％
- 太阳能ETF-Invesco（NYSE：TAN）上涨4.4％
- SPDR S&P区域银行ETF（NYSE：KRE）上涨4.2％
- iShares罗素2000指数ETF（NYSE：IWM）上涨3.6％
- VanEck 黄金矿业ETF（NYSE：GDX）上涨2.9%
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图像由Midjourney通过人工智能创建。