Yardeni Raises S&P 500 Year-End Target To 5,800, Hints At Faster-Than-Expected Discounting Of 'Roaring 2020s Scenario'
Yardeni Raises S&P 500 Year-End Target To 5,800, Hints At Faster-Than-Expected Discounting Of 'Roaring 2020s Scenario'
Veteran Wall Street investor Ed Yardeni has adjusted his outlook for the S&P 500, raising the year-end target to 5,800 from 5,400, and maintaining a target of 8,000 by the end of the decade.
资深华尔街投资者埃德·亚德尼调整了他对标普500的前景展望，将年底目标涨至5800点，而维持十年末8000点的目标。
"The stock market seems to be discounting our Roaring 2020s scenario faster than we expected," Yardeni stated in his latest Quicknote.
亚德尼在他最新的快记中表示，“股市似乎比我们预期的更快地重视了我们的2020年代繁荣场景。”
Yardeni's bullish stance, held since November 2022, has proven to be somewhat conservative as the bull market continues to surpass expectations.
自从2022年11月以来，亚德尼的看涨立场被证明有些保守，因为牛市持续超越预期。
Yardeni Cites European Economic Troubles, Reinforces 'Stay Home' Bias
亚德尼提到欧洲经济的问题，强调“待在家里”投资策略。
Yardeni expressed concerns about European economies, noting that they are losing post-pandemic momentum.
亚德尼对欧洲经济表示担忧，指出它们正在失去疫后的发展势头。
"Growth is sagging in core countries like Germany, while periphery nations are relying on tourism, which fuels inflation and social strife," he said.
他说，“像德国这样的核心国家的增长疲软，而周边国家则依靠旅游业支撑，这加剧了通货膨胀和社会冲突。”
Political headwinds are exacerbating the situation. The European Commission is preparing to penalize countries with unsustainable fiscal policies, such as France, which also grapples with far right- and left-wing parties now dominating the Parliament.
政治阻力加剧了形势的恶化。欧洲委员会正在准备处罚那些具有不可持续财政政策的国家，比如法国，在议会中右翼和左翼政党的垄断之下也在努力解决这个问题。
Yardeni highlighted a significant spread between 10-year German and French government bond yields, which remains at its highest levels since the 2017 French presidential election. Considering the dimmed outlook for the core Eurozone, he asserted, "We're not looking to pile into European stocks anytime soon."
亚德尼强调了10年期德国与法国政府债券收益率之间的显著差距，该差距仍处于2017年法国总统选举以来的最高水平。考虑到欧元区核心国家前景黯淡，他断言，“我们不打算很快投资欧洲股票。”
Instead, Yardeni stressed a preference for domestic investments. "A sea of troubles for European economies, reinforces our Stay Home (versus Go Global) equity investing bias."
相反，亚德尼强调对国内投资的偏好。“对欧洲经济的种种困难，加强了我们的“待在家中（与全球化相去甚远）的股票投资偏好。”
The Fed's Influence on Market Sentiment
美联储对市场情绪的影响。
Signs that the Federal Reserve might lower the federal funds rate soon have propelled stocks higher, despite the weak economic data driving these expectations.
尽管这些期望是由于经济疲软的数据推动的，但联邦储备委员会可能会很快降低联邦基金利率的迹象已经推动了股票的上涨。
Yardeni acknowledged, "The Fed Put is back."
亚德尼承认，“鲍威尔普特回来了。”
However, he warned against the Fed easing too soon, cautioning that shifting focus from inflation to unemployment could be a mistake.
但他警告说，美联储过早地放松政策，将关注重心从通胀转向失业可能是一个错误。
"Given the likelihood that the soft patch won't grow into a recession and that trade policies next year are bound to be inflationary," he said.
他说，“考虑到软弱的局势不会演变成经济衰退，而明年的贸易政策很可能具有通胀压力，”
Q2 Earnings: Positive Projections
第二季度盈利：积极的展望。
Yardeni offered an optimistic view on Q2 earnings growth for the S&P 500. The Q2-2024 EPS estimate of $59.22 remained unchanged from the start to the end of the quarter, a rare occurrence.
亚德尼对标普500第二季度盈利增长持乐观态度。第二季度2024年每股收益预计为59.22美元，自季度初到季度末未发生变化，这是一个罕见的现象。
Typically, there's a decline as the quarter progresses. Yardeni noted, "The quarter's 0% change is great news and implies yet another strong earnings surprise."
一般情况下随着季度的进行，会出现下降的趋势。亚德尼指出，“该季度0％的变化是一个好消息，意味着又会出现强劲的盈利惊喜。”
Sector Highlights
板块亮点。
Four sectors are projected to record double-digit percentage gains:
预计有四个板块将录得两位数百分点的增长：
- Communication Services: Expected to see a 21.7% increase.
- Health Care: Projected to grow by 20.2%.
- Information Technology: Anticipated to rise by 16.9%.
- Energy: Forecasted to increase by 11.4%.
- 通讯服务：预计增长21.7%。
- 医疗保健行业预计增长20.2%。
- 信息技术行业预计增长16.9%。
- 能源化工行业预计增长11.4%。
The MegaCap-7 group of stocks—Microsoft Corp. (NYSE:MSFT), Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL), NVIDIA Corp. (NASDAQ:NVDA), Alphabet Inc. (NASDAQ:GOOG) (NASDAQ:GOOGL), Amazon Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN), Meta Platforms Inc. (NASDAQ:META) and Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA)—is expected to post a year-over-year earnings growth of 28.3% in Q2-2024.
MegaCap-7股票组合——微软公司（纽交所：MSFT）、苹果公司（纳斯达克：AAPL）、英伟达公司（纳斯达克：NVDA）、Alphabet Inc（纳斯达克：GOOG）（纳斯达克：GOOGL）、亚马逊公司（纳斯达克：AMZN）、meta platforms公司（纳斯达克：META）和特斯拉公司（纳斯达克：TSLA）——预计在2024年第二季度实现同比增长28.3%。
Although this is down from the 50%-56% range of the previous three quarters, it is nearly identical to the 28.0% growth observed in the same quarter a year earlier.
尽管这相较于之前三个季度的50%-56%区间有所下降，但与一年前同季度的28.0%增长几乎相同。
Now Read:
现在就阅读吧:
- Ed Yardeni Downplays Recession Fears But Warns, 'We Need More Bears To Keep The Bull Market Going'
- Ed Yardeni淡化了经济衰退的担忧，但警告称，我们需要更多的熊来让牛市继续。