Stable OPR Rate Sustains Economic Growth Momentum, Ringgit's Outlook: Maybank IB
Stable OPR Rate Sustains Economic Growth Momentum, Ringgit's Outlook: Maybank IB
Maybank Investment Bank (Maybank IB), on the BNM Monetary Policy decision on the Overnight Policy Rate (OPR) being maintained at 3.00%, said today that comparing the latest and previous rate decisions, BNM maintained its assessment of continued global growth amid resilient job market, global tech upcycle and trade recovery that cushion the impact of tight monetary policy and fiscal stimulus withdrawal, as well as the view that the risk to global growth outlook remained biased to the downside on factors like escalations in geopolitical tensions, higher-than-expected inflation and financial market volatility.
马来亚银行投资银行（Maybank IB）在马来西亚银行保持3.00%的夜间政策利率（OPR）决策上表示，与最新和以前的利率决策相比，马来西亚银行维持了对于全球经济持续增长的评估，因为坚韧的就业市场、全球科技周期和贸易复苏有助于缓解紧缩的货币政策和财政刺激的影响，以及全球增长前景的风险依然偏向问题，如地缘政治紧张局势升级、通胀高于预期和金融市场波动。
Domestically, BNM expect sustained economic growth momentum in 2Q 2024 driven by resilient domestic demand on continued employment and wage growth and as tourist arrivals and spending are poised to rise further to support private consumption, plus private and public investment growth from progress in the multi-year projects implementation of catalytic initiatives under master plans announced last year (e.g. National Energy Transition Roadmap; National Industrial Master Plan 2030) and the realisation of the robust approved investments past three years.
在国内，预计由于持续的就业和工资增长以及随着旅游人数和支出的增加，以支持私人消费，还有多年计划实施中催化剂举措下的进展（例如，国家能源转型路线图;2023年国家工业主宰计划），以及过去三年中巨大的批准投资的实现，BNm预计第二季度2024年经济会保持增长势头。
There is also better export performance as global tech upcycle gathers momentum as well as growth in non-E&E exports.
随着全球技术高潮的增加以及非电子和电气出口的增长，出口表现也有所改善。
Risks to domestic economic outlook are balanced between the downsides to external demand and commodity output, and the upsides from greater spillover from the tech upcycle, more robust tourism activity and faster implementation of existing and new projects.
国内经济前景的风险在外部需求和商品产出的不利因素与科技高潮的更大溢出效应、更强劲的旅游业和现有和新项目的快速实施的利好因素之间保持平衡。
Inflation stays tame as per the "+2% YoY or less" monthly headline and core inflation since Sep 2023 and Nov 2023 respectively. However, the risk is tilted to the upside in the wake of the adjustments in consumption-related taxes – especially the Services Tax on 1 Mar 2024, and the implementation of targeted diesel subsidy on 10 June 2024.
自2023年9月和11月以来，根据每月的头条和核心通货膨胀率+2％ YoY或以下的数据，通胀一直保持平稳。然而，由于与消费相关的税收调整（特别是3月1日的服务税）以及6月10日定向柴油补贴的实施，风险倾向于上行。
Headline inflation rate in May 2024 picked up to +2% YoY after 3 straight months of +1.8% YoY print in Feb-Apr 2024, while core inflation picked up to +1.9% YoY in Apr-May 2024 from +1.7% YoY in Mar 2024.
2024年5月，当月的headline通胀率为+2％ YoY，连续3个月在2024年2-4月的+1.8％ YoY后回升，而核心通胀率为4-5月2024年从3月2024年的+1.7％ YoY上升至+1.9％ YoY。
BNM's Monetary Policy Statement (MPS) remarked that inflation will trend higher in 2H 2024 due to the diesel subsidy rationalisation, but will remain manageable given the mitigation measures to minimise the cost impact on businesses, and maintained that the upside risk to inflation would be dependent on the extent of spillover effects of further domestic policy measures on subsidies and price controls to broader price trends, as well as global commodity prices and financial market developments. BNM maintained 2024 headline and core inflation rates' forecast ranges of 2.0%-3.5% and 2.0%-3.0% respectively.
BNM的货币政策声明（MPS）指出，由于柴油补贴的合理化，通货膨胀率将在2024年下半年趋势上升，但鉴于缓和措施以最大限度地减少对企业成本的影响，通胀的上行风险仍然可控制，同时维持对通胀的预期上行风险取决于进一步的国内政策措施对补贴和价格管制的影响程度，进一步决定可转嫁给更广泛的价格趋势。以及全球商品价格和金融市场发展。BNm维护2024年headline和核心通货膨胀率的预测范围分别为2.0％-3.5％和2.0％-3.0％。
... and US Fed's hold for longer to keep OPR at 3.00%
...和美联储长期持有将OPR保持在3.00％
Maybank IB expects the OPR to remain at 3.00% throughout 2024 given their forecasts of GDP growth pick up (2024E: +4.7%; 1Q 2024: +3.9% YoY; 2023: +3.6%) and upside risk to inflation rate (2024E: +2.4%; 5M 2024: +1.8% YoY; 2023: +2.5%), plus US Fed's "hold for longer" interest rate policy stance.
Maybank Ib预计，鉴于他们对GDP增长的预测上升（2024E：+4.7％；1Q2024：+3.9％YoY；2023：+3.6％）和通胀率的上行风险（2024E：+2.4％；500万2024：+1.8% YoY；2023：+2.5％）以及美联储的“长期持有”利率政策立场，OPR将在2024年保持在3.00％。
However, a stable OPR with the expected US interest rate cuts is positive for Ringgit's outlook amid recent stabilisation The latest Interest Rate Swap (IRS) rate implies market is pricing in a stable OPR next 12 months.
然而，在预期的美国利率削减下，稳定的OPR对马来西亚林吉特的前景是积极的。最新的利率掉期（IRS）率表明市场预期未来12个月OPR稳定。
Ringgit stabilised, while strengthening requires US interest rate cuts and domestic reforms and restructuring
林吉特经历了稳定，而加强需要美国利率削减以及国内改革和重组。
On the Ringgit, the latest MPS essentially maintained BNM's view that Ringgit current level does not reflect Malaysia's economic fundamentals and growth prospects i.e. being undervalued.
关于林吉特，最新的货币政策声明基本上维持了BNM的观点，即林吉特当前的水平没有反映马来西亚的经济基本面和增长前景，即被低估。
Maybank IB analysts believe the Ringgit has stabilised against the USD to trade in a 4.68-4.72 range since mid-May 2024, and closed at 4.6875 on 11 July 2024 (source: Bloomberg), improving from this year's low of 4.80 on 20 Feb 2024.
Maybank Ib分析师认为，林吉特自5月中旬以来已经稳定对美元交易在4.68-4.72范围内交易，并于2024年7月11日收于4.6875（数据来源：彭博社），从2024年2月20日的最低点4.80开始改善。
This follows FX market intervention by BNM as indicated by the -USD2.1b drop in external reserves during Feb-Apr 2024 plus coordinated communications and actions by BNM (e.g. Governor's, Financial Market Committee (FMC) and Monetary Policy statements on 20/27 Feb 2024, 1 Mar 2024 and 7 Mar 2024 respectively) and Ministry of Finance (e.g. Second Finance Minister's statement in the Parliament on 29 Feb 2024) that include Ringgit-supporting measures, including encouraging Government-linked companies (GLCs) and Government-linked investment companies (GLICs) repatriating AND converting their foreign exchange earnings and overseas investment incomes.
这是由BNm在2024年2-4月期间干预外汇市场所指示的，加上由BNm（例如，行长，金融市场委员会（FMC）和货币政策声明等）协调的沟通和行动，以及财政部（例如，在2024年2月29日的议会上的第二财政部长的声明）包括支持林吉特的举措，包括鼓励与政府关联的公司（GLC）和政府投资公司（GLIC）重返和转换其外汇收入和海外投资收入。
Maybank IB's FX Research sees Ringgit ending this year vs USD at 4.60. Ringgit-positive factors include improving domestic economic growth prospect, as per the pickup in the 1Q 2024 real GDP growth to +4.2% YoY (4Q 2023: +2.9% YoY) that was among others driven by exports rebound (5M 2024: +4.5% YoY; 2023: -8.0% YoY), in line with the bank's forecasts of faster 2024 real GDP growth of +4.7% (2023: +3.6%) and full-year rebound in exports of goods and services (2024E: +5.5%; 2023: – 8.1%).
Maybank IB的外汇研究认为，林吉特将在今年结束时以4.60对美元收盘。林吉特的积极因素包括实际GDP增长率的提高，如2024年第一季度实际GDP增长率的提高至+4.2％YoY（2023年第四季度：+2.9％YoY），其中一些归功于出口的反弹（500万2024：+4.5％YoY，2023：-8.0％YoY），符合银行对更快2024实际GDP增长率+4.7％（2023：+3.6％）和商品和服务出口全年反弹（2024E：+5.5％；2023：-8.1％）的预测。
At the same time, the outlook on US interest rate matters
同时，对美国利率的展望也很重要
To recap, Ringgit strengthened to close at 4.59 at end-2023 vs the low of 4.79 on 23 Oct 2023 as markets priced US Fed cutting interest rate as soon as Mar 2024 and by as much as -150bps cuts back then. The outlook has since changed to -50bps cuts in the Fed funds rate later this year as per the latest 30-day fed funds futures.
回顾一下，随着市场在2019年10月23日计价美联储削减利率的前景为前途未卜，林吉特在当年年底上涨至4.59，而在2024年3月美联储预计一年内削减150基点的利率水平下上涨。而最新的30天联邦基金期货则预计今年晚些时候会进一步削减50个基点。
However, once the fog of uncertainty on US interest rate policy – in terms of timing and quantum – clears away, we expect Ringgit outlook to improve amid stable OPR and US fed funds rate cuts.
然而，一旦有关美国利率政策的不确定性烟雾散去，无论在时间和数量上，我们都预计林吉特前景会在稳定的OPR和美联储基金利率削减中得到改善。
Nonetheless, over the longer term, economic reforms and restructuring – as well as strategic economic growth policies – are vital for Ringgit outlook.
然而，在较长的时间范围内，经济改革和重组以及战略性经济增长政策对林吉特前景至关重要。
The MPS reiterated that "over the medium term, ongoing structural reforms will provide more enduring support to the Ringgit".
MPS重申：“从中期来看，持续的结构改革将为林吉特提供更持久的支持。”
Maybank IB views the execution/implementation of fiscal reforms as the "low-hanging fruit" for a sustained Ringgit-positive/supportive outcome, especially given the legally binding target of reducing budget deficit to -3.0% of GDP (2024E: -4.3% of GDP; 2023: -5.0% of GDP) and capping Government total debt at no more than 60% of GDP (end-2023: 64.3% of GDP) in 3-5 years as per the Public Finance and Fiscal Responsibility Act (FRA) i.e. by 2026 at the earliest and by 2028 latest.
Maybank Ib认为，财政改革的执行/实施是实现持续林吉特积极/支持性结果的“低离子流“，特别是考虑到根据公共财政和财政责任法案（FRA）以3-5年的时间将预算赤字降至GDP的-3.0％（2024E：-4.3％的GDP；2023：-5.0％的GDP）的法定目标和将政府总债务上限控制在不超过GDP的60％（2023年底：64.3％的GDP）内。即2026年至2018年最早和最晚之间。
To-date, Maybank IB said, the Government has rolled out revenue-enhancing broadening of the tax bases i.e. imposing Capital Gains Tax and 10% Low Value Goods Tax effective 1 Jan 2024; Services Tax base expansion and rate adjustment to 6%-8% range from 6% as well as "Sugar Tax" hike effective 1 Mar 2024. Further revenue-enhancement measures this year include strengthening tax compliance via the phasing in of "e-invoicing" starting 1 June 2024 for full implementation on 1 July 2025.
迄今为止，马来亚银行表示政府已经实施了增加营业收入的税收扩大基础，即自2024年1月1日开始实施资本利得税和10%的低价值商品税;将服务税基扩大并将税率从6%调整到6%-8%的区间;以及自2024年3月1日起实施"糖税"加息。今年的进一步增收措施包括通过从2024年6月1日起逐步实施"电子发票"来加强纳税合规性，完全实施时间为2025年7月1日。
At the same time, the Government made further progress in subsidy rationalisation by rolling out the targeted diesel subsidy rationalization on 10 June 2024 after the implementation of targeted electricity subsidy and ending the subsidy for chicken production last year. We also expect the Government to complement FRA with the tabling of Government Procurement Act (GPA) in 4Q 2024.
同时，政府在去年结束了对鸡肉生产的补贴之后，在2024年6月10日推出了有针对性的柴油补贴合理化，我们还期望政府在2024年第四季度提交政府采购法（GPA）以补充FRA。