June Producer Inflation Exceeds Forecasts, Restrains Investor Euphoria Following Consumer Price Relief
June Producer Inflation Exceeds Forecasts, Restrains Investor Euphoria Following Consumer Price Relief
The Producer Price Index released Friday revealed a higher-than-expected increase in June, surprising investors who had grown confident about interest rate cuts following the sharper-than-anticipated drop in the monthly Consumer Price Index inflation gauge released a day earlier.
根据周五发布的生产者物价指数，6月份的上涨超出了预期，这使得投资者对于紧随其后的消费者价格指数月度通胀数据的大幅下降越发自信，之前市场普遍预期利率会因此而下降。
On an annual basis compared to June 2023, the overall producer basket rose by 2.6%, reaching its highest point since March 2023.
与2023年6月相比，整体生产者篮子上涨了2.6%，达到2023年3月以来的最高点。
June PPI Report: Key Highlights
6月份生产者物价指数报告要闻
- In June, the headline PPI for final demand rose by 0.2% month-over-month, rebounding sharply from the upwardly revised flat reading in May and surpassing economists' expectations – as tracked by TradingEconomics – of a 0.1% increase.
- The June rise in the index for final demand is attributed to a 0.6% monthly increase in prices for final demand services, while the index for final demand goods decreased by 0.5%.
- The 2.6% annual surge in the headline number represented a 0.2 percentage point increase from the upwardly revised May print, and topped estimates of 2.3%.
- The core PPI – which tracks prices for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services – advanced at a 0.4% monthly pace, advancing from May's upwardly revised 0.3% growth and surpassing estimates of 0.2%.
- On an annual basis, the core PPI climbed by 3.1%, up from the previous 2.3% and marking the highest rate of increase since April 2023.
- 6月份终端需求的核心生产者物价指数按月上涨0.2%，明显反弹，超过经济学家跟踪的TradingEconomics的0.1%预期增长。
- 终端需求物品价格指数下降了0.5%，而终端需求服务价格指数上涨了0.6%，导致6月份终端需求物价指数上涨。
- 总体生产者物价指数年度增幅较2023年6月上升了0.2个百分点，达到2.6%，高于2.3%的预期。
- 终端需求产品去掉食品、能源和贸易服务价格指数按月上涨0.4%，从前一个月修正的0.3%上升，并超出了0.2%的预期增长。
- 核心生产者物价指数同比上涨了3.1%，高于前一个月的2.3%，标志着自2023年4月以来增幅最大。
Market Reactions
市场反应
Prior to the PPI report, traders had assigned a nearly 95% chance on a September rate cut, according to CME Group's FedWatch tool.
在生产者物价指数报告发布之前，根据CME Group的FedWatch工具，交易者普遍认为9月会有将近95%的几率会降息。
The hotter-than-expected reading may now temper these heightened expectations, though it is unlikely to derail them altogether given the Federal Reserve's stronger emphasis on consumer price trends.
这个高于预期的数据可能会使这种高涨的预期得到缓和，但由于联邦储备委员会更加强调消费者价格趋势，预期不大可能彻底崩溃。
Futures on major U.S. equity averages traded flat in Friday's premarket trading. Treasury yields inched slightly higher across the board and the dollar recouped early session losses against peers.
周五盘前，主要美股期货交易平稳。所有国债收益率均略微上升，美元把早期与其他货币的亏损挽回了。
On Thursday, tech stocks sold off despite a lower-than-expected CPI report, with the Invesco QQQ Trust (NASDAQ:QQQ) tumbling 2.2%. Small caps rallied instead, with the iShares Russell 2000 ETF (NYSE:IWM) roaring 3.6%, achieving the highest level since January 2022.
尽管市场上公布的消费者价格指数低于预期，科技股仍在周四遭受抛售，纳指100etf-invesco qqq trust下跌了2.2%。相反，小盘股却大涨，纳斯达克罗素2000指数etf上涨了3.6%，达到2022年1月以来的最高水平。
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Photo via Shutterstock.
图片来自Shutterstock。