Higher Producer Prices Show Inflation May Stick Around 'Longer Than Most People Expect'
Higher Producer Prices Show Inflation May Stick Around 'Longer Than Most People Expect'
Inflation may stay elevated beyond people's expectations, according to economists.
根据经济学家的说法，通胀可能会超出人们的预期。
What Happened: The Producer Price Index released Friday showed a higher-than-expected increase in June. The results surprised investors. Observers anticipate rate cuts on the horizon after a larger-than-expected drop in the monthly Consumer Price Index inflation gauge issued on Thursday.
事件经过: 周五公布的生产者价格指数显示6月份涨幅高于预期。这个结果让投资者感到惊讶。观察人士预计，在周四公布的月度消费物价指数通胀率大幅降低后，未来会有利率削减。
On an annual basis compared to June 2023, the overall producer basket rose by 2.6%. It attained its highest point since March 2023.
与2023年6月相比，总生产者篮子的年度基础上涨了2.6%。它达到了2023年3月以来的最高点。
"This morning's data is a reminder that inflation is still an issue and is likely to be with us for longer than most people expect," Chris Zaccarelli, chief investment officer for Independent Advisor Alliance, said on Friday.
美国Investment Alliance的首席投资官克里斯·扎卡雷利于周五表示：“今天早上公布的数据提醒我们，通胀仍然是一个问题，并且可能会比大多数人预计的时间更长。”
The market should pay closer attention to the CPI than producer inflation, he said. That is what the Federal Reserve focuses on in determining whether it will cut the key interest rate, currently between 5.25% and 5.5%.
他说，市场应该更加关注消费者物价指数而非生产者物价指数。这是美国联邦储备委员会在决定是否削减关键利率（目前在5.25%至5.5%之间）时关注的重点。
Also Read: June Producer Inflation Exceeds Forecasts, Restrains Investor Euphoria Following Consumer Price Relief
阅读更多: 生产者物价指数，在消费者物价缓解后超预期增长，制约了投资者的狂热。
"The inflation data this week have been mixed," he said. "We are still optimistic about the economy and the market given the favorable price dynamics (largely slowing) and strong labor market, but if either of those trends change it will disproportionately affect markets because valuations have become stretched."
他说：“本周的通胀数据是错综复杂的。尽管价格动态（大致在放缓）和稳健的劳动力市场情况相对较好，但如果其中任何一个趋势发生变化，市场会受到不成比例的影响，因为估值程度已经过高。”
Why It Matters: Producer price inflation and consumer price inflation are "a bit above levels the Fed would feel comfortable with," Bill Adams, chief economist for Comerica Incorporated (NYSE:CMA), said Friday.
Comerica银行首席经济学家比尔·亚当斯周五表示，生产者物价和消费者物价都“略高于美联储会感到舒适的水平。”
"While the Fed looks poised to start cutting rates in September, they will do it in a much more gradual fashion than in the last couple rate cycles," he said.
他说：“尽管美联储看起来将在9月开始削减利率，但他们将以比过去几个利率周期更逐步的方式进行。”
A significant rise in trade services and retail rents drove the upside surprise and offset lower energy prices, he said.
他说，贸易服务和零售租金的大幅增长抵消了能源价格的下降。
The higher producer prices may limit downside pressure on consumer prices depending on firm's ability to pass on higher costs, Bank of America Corporation (NYSE:BAC) said on Friday.
美国银行公司（纽交所：BAC）周五表示，较高的生产者价格可能会限制消费者价格的下行压力，这取决于公司传递较高成本的能力。
But the higher PPI was "soft" on the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index due in large part to medical services, the bank said.
该银行称，生产者物价指数较高的原因在于医疗服务，在大型个人消费支出（PCE）指数上产生了“软”影响。
Bank of America expects the revised core PCE to rise by 0.17% m/m in June, down 4 basis points from its post-CPI estimate.
美国银行预计核心PCE修正后的6月份月环比将上升0.17％，比其CPI后估计低4个基点。
"On an annualized basis, this would be effectively in line with the Fed's 2% target and follow a very soft print in May," it said on Friday.
该银行周五表示：“从年度基础上看，这将有效地达到美联储的2%目标，并在5月份出现非常软的数据之后。”
"In sum, disinflation has gotten back on track over the last two months."
总之，通货紧缩在过去两个月已经重回正轨。
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- 60% Expect June Inflation Data Will Drop, But Most See Costs Still Rising
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Image: Shutterstock
图片：shutterstock