Housing Prices Hit New All-Time Highs But Could Hit A Wall Soon, Despite Lower Mortgage Rates
Housing Prices Hit New All-Time Highs But Could Hit A Wall Soon, Despite Lower Mortgage Rates
U.S. housing prices just hit a new record high, with a median price of nearly $400,000, but price growth may stall out according to real estate company Redfin Corp (NASDAQ:RDFN).
美国房价刚刚创下历史新高，中间价格接近40万美元，但房地产公司Redfin Corp(NASDAQ:RDFN)表示价格增长可能会停止。
In a recent note, Redfin highlighted a 4.7% year-over-year growth in the median home price, the largest increase in more than 4 months.
The price growth of homes comes as mortgage rates have retreated from their highs in October 2023. With mortgage rates lowering, in addition to a market with historically low inventory, strong demand has pushed the average home price higher.
Despite mortgage rates coming down, mortgage-purchase applications are down 13% year-over-year, in a sign that high prices may be deterring would-be homebuyers. In fact, more homes are selling for less than the original asking price than at any point in the last four years.
在最近的一份报告中，Redfin强调了中位房价年增长4.7％，这是4个月以来最大的增长。
随着抵押贷款利率从2023年10月的高点回落，房屋价格的增长就出现了。随着抵押贷款利率的下降，再加上历史低库存市场，强劲的需求推高了平均房价。
尽管抵押贷款利率下降，购房申请却同比下降了13％，这表明高房价可能会阻挡潜在买家。实际上，以低于原始要价出售的房屋比在过去四年的任何时候都要多。
"There are signs that price growth may lose momentum soon," the report reads. "The typical home is selling for 0.4% less than its asking price, marking the first time the typical home has sold under list price at the start of July since 2020."
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Redfin also points out that inventory is on the rise, potentially creating a plateau in the price growth of homes. And, if the Federal Reserve does end up cutting interest rates, it will help homebuilders borrow money to build more homes, thus increasing supply and potentially helping bring the price of homes lower.
"Although inventory is still historically low, it is rising on a year-over-year basis, which is another sign that price growth may lose steam in the coming months," Redfin's note says. "New listings are up 7.3% year over year, and the total number of homes for sale is up 18.3%, with most homes for sale growing stale: More than 60% of homes are listed for at least a month without going under contract."
报告中说：“有迹象表明价格增长可能会很快失去动力。典型住房的售价比要价低0.4％，标志着自2020年7月开始以来，典型住房首次低于挂牌价。”
阅读：房地产投资者瞄准这五个预算友好型城市的房屋记录股份——是什么使它们预算友好型的？
Redfin还指出，库存正在增加，可能会制造房屋价格增长的停滞期。此外，如果联邦储备委员会最终降息，它将有助于住房建筑商借款以建造更多房屋，从而增加供应并有可能帮助降低房屋价格。
Redfin的简报说：“尽管库存仍然处于历史低位，但年增长率正在上升，这是价格增长在未来几个月可能会失去动力的另一个迹象。新增房源同比上涨7.3％，总供应房屋数量同比上涨18.3％，其中大部分房屋供应乏力：超过60％的房屋至少挂牌1个月，但未达成交易。”
Price Action: If housing prices do fall, it could cut into the earnings of homebuilders like KB Home (NYSE:KBH) and Toll Brothers Inc (NYSE:TOL). But, companies that rely on the sales of homes, like Zillow Group (NASDAQ:Z) could see an increase in business if lower prices encourage new buyers to enter the market.
股价走势：如果房价下跌，可能会影响像Kb Home(NYSE:KBH)和Toll Brothers Inc(NYSE:TOL)等房屋建筑商的收益。但是，像Zillow Group(NASDAQ:Z)这样依赖于房屋销售的公司，如果较低的价格鼓励新买家进入市场，则可能会看到业务增长。
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