Does Eastman Chemical (NYSE:EMN) Have A Healthy Balance Sheet?
Does Eastman Chemical (NYSE:EMN) Have A Healthy Balance Sheet?
Howard Marks put it nicely when he said that, rather than worrying about share price volatility, 'The possibility of permanent loss is the risk I worry about... and every practical investor I know worries about.' When we think about how risky a company is, we always like to look at its use of debt, since debt overload can lead to ruin. Importantly, Eastman Chemical Company (NYSE:EMN) does carry debt. But the more important question is: how much risk is that debt creating?
霍华德·马克斯曾经很好地表达了这个观点,他说,与担心股价波动相比,“我担心的是永久性损失的可能性……我认识的所有实际投资者都会担心这个问题。”当我们考虑一个公司有多大的风险时,我们总是喜欢看它的债务使用情况,因为债务超载可能导致破产。重要的是,伊士曼化工公司(纽交所:EMN)确实有负债。但更重要的问题是:这些债务所产生的风险有多大?
Why Does Debt Bring Risk?
为什么债务会带来风险?
Debt and other liabilities become risky for a business when it cannot easily fulfill those obligations, either with free cash flow or by raising capital at an attractive price. If things get really bad, the lenders can take control of the business. However, a more common (but still painful) scenario is that it has to raise new equity capital at a low price, thus permanently diluting shareholders. Of course, debt can be an important tool in businesses, particularly capital heavy businesses. When we examine debt levels, we first consider both cash and debt levels, together.
当企业无法轻松地通过自由现金流或以优惠的价格筹集资本来履行这些义务时,债务和其他负债就会变得有风险。如果情况变得非常糟糕,贷款人可以控制企业。然而,更常见的(但仍然痛苦的)情况是,它必须以低价筹集新的权益资本,从而永久性地稀释股东的权益。当然,债务可以成为企业的重要工具,尤其是对于资本密集型企业来说。当我们检查债务水平时,我们首先考虑现金和债务水平。
What Is Eastman Chemical's Net Debt?
伊士曼化工的净债务是多少?
You can click the graphic below for the historical numbers, but it shows that Eastman Chemical had US$5.21b of debt in March 2024, down from US$5.75b, one year before. However, because it has a cash reserve of US$509.0m, its net debt is less, at about US$4.70b.
您可以点击下面的图表查看历史数据,但它显示伊士曼化工在2024年3月的债务为5.21亿美元,比一年前的5.75亿美元降低。但是,由于它拥有5,090万美元的现金储备,其净债务较少,约为4.7亿美元。
![big](https://usnewsfile.moomoo.com/public/MM-PersistNewsContentImage/7781/20240713/0-a3ae37dfa95490095c24e48ca414e958-0-bd30823820efa68af3a90c11bf43fc14.png/big)
How Healthy Is Eastman Chemical's Balance Sheet?
根据最近披露的资产负债表,伊士曼化工在12个月内有26.2亿美元的负债,超过12个月的负债为65.2亿美元。另一方面,它拥有5,090万美元的现金和价值12.7亿美元的应收账款即将到期。因此,其负债总额超过其现金和短期应收账款合计736亿美元。这是一座巨大的杠杆山,甚至相对于其巨大的市值113亿美元而言也如此。这表明如果公司需要迅速支持其资产负债表,股东的权益会受到严重稀释。
According to the last reported balance sheet, Eastman Chemical had liabilities of US$2.62b due within 12 months, and liabilities of US$6.52b due beyond 12 months. On the other hand, it had cash of US$509.0m and US$1.27b worth of receivables due within a year. So it has liabilities totalling US$7.36b more than its cash and near-term receivables, combined.
伊士曼化工的资产负债表有多健康?根据最近披露的资产负债表,伊士曼化工在12个月内有26.2亿美元的负债,超过12个月的负债为65.2亿美元。另一方面,它拥有5,090万美元的现金和价值12.7亿美元的应收账款即将到期。因此,其负债总额超过其现金和短期应收账款合计736亿美元。这是一座巨大的杠杆山,甚至相对于其巨大的市值113亿美元而言也如此。这表明如果公司需要迅速支持其资产负债表,股东的权益会受到严重稀释。
This is a mountain of leverage even relative to its gargantuan market capitalization of US$11.3b. This suggests shareholders would be heavily diluted if the company needed to shore up its balance sheet in a hurry.
伊士曼化工的债务是其EBITDA的3.0倍,而其EBIt每年的利息支出可覆盖5.0倍。综合看来,这意味着尽管我们不希望看到债务水平上升,但我们认为它能够处理其当前的杠杆。不幸的是,伊士曼化工的EBIt在过去四个季度下降了14%。如果收益继续以那样的速度下降,那么处理债务将比带着三个5亿英镑的孩子去一个花哨的餐厅要困难得多。当分析债务水平时,资产负债表是首要的关注点。但最终还是未来的收益能力,而不是任何东西,将决定伊士曼化工能否持续保持健康的资产负债表。因此,如果你关注未来,可以查看该公司的自由现金流预测报告。
We use two main ratios to inform us about debt levels relative to earnings. The first is net debt divided by earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA), while the second is how many times its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) covers its interest expense (or its interest cover, for short). Thus we consider debt relative to earnings both with and without depreciation and amortization expenses.
我们使用两个主要的比率来告诉我们相对于收益的债务水平。第一个是净债务除以利息、税、折旧和摊销前利润(EBITDA),而第二个是其利润前利息和税(EBIT)覆盖其利息费用的次数(或其利息覆盖率,简称)。因此,我们考虑与折旧和摊销费用相关的盈利以及没有相关费用的盈利相对于债务水平。
Eastman Chemical's debt is 3.0 times its EBITDA, and its EBIT cover its interest expense 5.0 times over. Taken together this implies that, while we wouldn't want to see debt levels rise, we think it can handle its current leverage. Unfortunately, Eastman Chemical's EBIT flopped 14% over the last four quarters. If earnings continue to decline at that rate then handling the debt will be more difficult than taking three children under 5 to a fancy pants restaurant. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine Eastman Chemical's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you're focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.
最后,公司只能用真正的现金而不是会计利润来偿还债务。因此,检查有多少自由现金流支持其EBIt是值得的。通过查看最近三年,伊士曼化工记录了39%的EBIt自由现金流,这比我们预期的要弱。这种疲软的现金转换使得处理负债更加困难。思考伊士曼化工(不)增加其EBIt,我们当然并不热情。但至少它的利息覆盖率还不错。在查看资产负债表并考虑所有这些因素后,我们认为债务使得伊士曼化工的股票有些风险。有些人喜欢这种风险,但我们意识到潜在的风险,所以我们可能更愿意承担较少的债务。资产负债表显然是分析债务的关键领域。但并不是所有投资风险都存在于资产负债表中,甚至远非如此。例如,我们已经发现了伊士曼化工的3个警告信号,你应该在意。
Finally, a company can only pay off debt with cold hard cash, not accounting profits. So it's worth checking how much of that EBIT is backed by free cash flow. Looking at the most recent three years, Eastman Chemical recorded free cash flow of 39% of its EBIT, which is weaker than we'd expect. That weak cash conversion makes it more difficult to handle indebtedness.
最后,公司只能用真正的现金而不是会计利润来偿还债务。因此,检查有多少自由现金流支持其EBIt是值得的。通过查看最近三年,伊士曼化工记录了39%的EBIt自由现金流,这比我们预期的要弱。这种疲软的现金转换使得处理负债更加困难。
Our View
我们的观点
Mulling over Eastman Chemical's attempt at (not) growing its EBIT, we're certainly not enthusiastic. But at least its interest cover is not so bad. Looking at the balance sheet and taking into account all these factors, we do believe that debt is making Eastman Chemical stock a bit risky. Some people like that sort of risk, but we're mindful of the potential pitfalls, so we'd probably prefer it carry less debt. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. Case in point: We've spotted 3 warning signs for Eastman Chemical you should be aware of.
思考伊士曼化工(不)增加其EBIt,我们当然并不热情。但至少它的利息覆盖率还不错。在查看资产负债表并考虑所有这些因素后,我们认为债务使得伊士曼化工的股票有些风险。有些人喜欢这种风险,但我们意识到潜在的风险,所以我们可能更愿意承担较少的债务。资产负债表显然是分析债务的关键领域。但并不是所有投资风险都存在于资产负债表中,甚至远非如此。例如,我们已经发现了伊士曼化工的3个警告信号,你应该在意。
If you're interested in investing in businesses that can grow profits without the burden of debt, then check out this free list of growing businesses that have net cash on the balance sheet.
如果您有兴趣投资能够在不负债的情况下增长利润的企业,请查看这份免费列表,其中列出了在资产负债表上拥有净现金的成长型企业。
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