Malaysia 2H24 Outlook And Lookouts Of Sustaining Positive Economic Momentum
Malaysia 2H24 Outlook And Lookouts Of Sustaining Positive Economic Momentum
Malaysia's real GDP growth picked up in 1Q 2024, which had prompted Maybank Investment Bank (Maybank IB) to raise the 2024E real GDP growth forecast to +4.7% (from +4.4%) and 2025E to +5.1% (from +5.0%).
2024年第一季度，马来西亚实际国内生产总值增长加快，此举促使马来亚银行投资银行（Maybank IB）将2024年实际国内生产总值增长预测上调至+4.7%（从+4.4%），2025年预测值上调至+5.1%（从+5.0%） 。
Maybank IB said today, over at equities, core earnings of their research universe rose +20.1% YoY in 1Q 2024 which had led to upliftment in our forecasts; Maybank IB now estimates a higher +15.5% core earnings growth for their universe in 2024E (previously +13.1%), while for 2025E, they now estimate +10.7% growth (previously +9.9%).
马来银行投资银行今日表示，在股票板块中，研究覆盖的核心收益在2024年第一季度同比增长20.1％，这导致我们的预测得到提升。现在，马来银行投资银行估计其研究覆盖股票板块的核心收益在2024年将增长15.5％（先前为13.1％），而2025年的增长率现估计为10.7％（先前为9.9％）
Malaysia's economic growth will be underpinned by the trifecta of positives:
马来西亚的经济增长将受三个方面的积极因素支撑：
1) investment upcycle in FDI and DDI reflecting the on-going realisation of the sustained momentum in robust approved investment since 2021;
1）对外直接投资和国内直接投资的投资高峰反映了2021年以来已批准的强劲投资势头的持续实现;
2) external demand recovery especially in electronics/tech and tourism, contributing to firmer services sector growth, pick up in manufacturing sector growth as well as rebound in exports of goods and services; and
2）外部需求恢复，特别是在电子/科技和旅游业，有助于服务业和制造业的增长，以及商品和服务的出口反弹；和
3) resilient consumer spending on the back of the favourable job market conditions as per the low and stable unemployment rate as well as income growth and support measures.
3）有利的就业市场条件支持了消费者支出，包括低稳定的失业率、收入增长和支持措施。
Maybank IB said, positively, the Ringgit has stabilised vs. USD following intervention by Bank Negara and coordinated communications and measures by Bank Negara and Ministry of Finance.
马来银行投资银行表示，美元指数对马来西亚令吉的干预以及马来西亚国家银行和财政部的协调沟通和措施对令吉产生了稳定作用。
Maybank IB forecasts the Ringgit ending this year vs. USD at 4.60.
马来银行投资银行预测，马来西亚令吉对美元的汇率将在今年结束时为4.60。
Ringgit-positive factors include improving domestic economic growth prospect, as well as the expectation of stable Overnight Policy Rate of 3.00% vs. market and Maybank IB's expectations of 2-3 cuts in the US federal funds rate between Sep 2024 and Dec 2024.
令吉的积极因素包括改善的国内经济增长前景，以及市场和马来银行投资银行预期在2024年9月至12月之间的美国联邦基金利率将进行2-3次降息，而它们对 Overnight Policy Rate 预期保持稳定。
For equities, the positive signs are:
对于股票，积极信号包括：
1) progress in economic restructuring and fiscal reforms;
1）经济重组和财政改革方面的进展；
2) record high approved FDI/DDIs; and
2）创纪录的批准对外直接投资和国内直接投资；和
3) corporate earnings growth delivery has led to the KLCI's outperformance and re-rating in 2024 YTD.
3）企业盈利增长推动了马股在2024年年初的跑赢和重估。
Maybank IB maintains their YE KLCI target of 1,680, with tailwinds including:
马来银行投资银行维持其对大马富时综合指数的年末目标为1680点，其中有以下助涨因素：
1) US interest rate cuts;
1）美国降息；
2) details of the JSSEZ which will be catalytic in bringing in further FDIs and infra developments; and
2）剧场式经济特区计划的细节将有助于引进更多的对外直接投资和基础设施发展；和
3) the outlook of a firmer Ringgit.
3）看涨令吉的前景。
For investment strategy, Maybank IB recommends a portfolio of selective investment-related, and domestic sectors, balanced with yield stocks.
对于投资策略，马来银行投资银行建议投资选择性的与投资相关的国内行业，与收益股均衡组合。
Key wildcards to Malaysia's macro-outlook are the upside risk to domestic inflation and the downside risk of external geopolitics.
大马宏观前景的关键未知风险是国内通货膨胀率上升的上行风险，以及外部地缘政治下行风险。
Key risks for equities are US elections (in Nov 2024) and a "Trump 2.0" outcome, "higher-for-longer" US interest rate, and Russia-Ukraine & Middle East instability escalating.
股票的关键风险包括美国选举（2024年11月）和“特朗普2.0”结果，“长期”美国利率的上升以及俄罗斯-乌克兰和中东的不稳定恶化。