June Retail Sales Stagnate: Traders Fully Price In September Interest Rate Cut
June Retail Sales Stagnate: Traders Fully Price In September Interest Rate Cut
U.S. retail sales stagnated on a month-over-month basis in June 2024, declining from upwardly revised 0.3% growth in May to zero growth and matching the forecasted flat reading, according to preliminary estimates released Tuesday.
根据周二公布的初步估计，2024年6月美国零售销售环比停滞，从5月份向上修正的0.3％增长下降至零增长，与预期的持平数据持平。
Fed futures indicate a 100% likelihood of a rate cut in September, according to the CME Group's FedWatch tool. Traders assign an 88% probability to a 25-basis-point rate cut and a 12% probability to a 50-basis-point rate cut.
芝加哥商品交易所集团的FedWatch工具显示，美联储期货表明9月份降息的可能性为100％。交易者认为降息25个基点的概率为88％，降息50个基点的概率为12％。
On Monday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell sounded more dovish than anticipated, suggesting that recent inflation reports show welcome progress toward the 2% target, increasing confidence that policymakers may be inclined to lower interest rates.
周一，美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔听起来比预期更加鸽派，这表明最近的通胀报告显示，在实现2％的目标方面取得了可喜的进展，这增强了人们对决策者可能倾向于降低利率的信心。
Powell also mentioned that an unexpected weakening in the U.S. labor market could be a factor prompting the Fed to take action.
鲍威尔还提到，美国劳动力市场的意外疲软可能是促使美联储采取行动的一个因素。
June Retail Sales Report: Key Highlights
6月零售销售报告：主要亮点
- On a year-over-year basis, retail sales rose by 2.3% in June, slowing from an upwardly revised 2.6% in May.
- Excluding motor vehicle and parts, retail sales increased by 0.4% month-over-month, up from 0.1% in May and topping the expected 0.1%, according to TradingEconomics data.
- Excluding gasoline, motor vehicle and parts, retail sales rose 0.8% month-over-month in June, beating expectations of 0.2% growth and advancing from an upwardly revised 0.3% gain in May.
- Among different spending categories, the largest monthly increases were seen in nonstore retailers, with a 1.9% rise, followed by building material, garden equipment and supplies dealers, up 1.4%.
- The largest monthly drops were seen in gasoline stations, down 3%, and motor vehicle and parts dealers, down 2%.
- 6月份零售额同比增长2.3％，低于5月份向上修正的2.6％。
- 根据TradingEconomics的数据，不包括汽车和零部件，零售额同比增长0.4％，高于5月份的0.1％，超过预期的0.1％。
- 不包括汽油、汽车和零部件，6月份零售额同比增长0.8％，超过了预期的0.2％的增长，高于5月份向上修正的0.3％的增长。
- 在不同的支出类别中，非门店零售商的月度增幅最大，增长1.9％，其次是建筑材料、园艺设备和用品经销商，增长1.4％。
- 月度降幅最大的是加油站，下降了3％，汽车和零部件经销商下降了2％。
Market Reactions: Dollar, Treasury Yields Slightly Rebound
市场反应：美元、国债收益率小幅反弹
Following the release of June retail sales data, the U.S. dollar strengthened and Treasury yields trimmed session losses.
6月零售销售数据公布后，美元走强，美国国债收益率缩减了交易日跌幅。
The U.S. Dollar Index, as tracked by the Invesco DB USD Index Bullish Fund ETF (NYSE:UUP), rose 0.2%.
景顺Db美元指数看涨基金ETF（纽约证券交易所代码：UUP）追踪的美元指数上涨0.2％。
Treasury yields were down by 3 basis points in the long end, with the 30-year yield hovering at 4.44%.
长期来看，美国国债收益率下降了3个基点，30年期国债收益率徘徊在4.44％。
Futures on major U.S. averages traded higher during Tuesday premarket trading. Contracts on the S&P 500 were 0.4% higher by 8:40 a.m. ET.
周二盘前交易中，美国主要平均指数期货上涨。截至美国东部时间上午8点40分，标准普尔500指数的合约上涨了0.4％。
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照片来自 Shutterstock。