IOI Corp, Laggard Play With Possible Landbank Monetisation Option
IOI Corp, Laggard Play With Possible Landbank Monetisation Option
RHB Investment said although it expects FY24F to end the year flattish YoY for IOI Corporation, some improvement should be seen in FY25F as downstream earnings improve on global demand recovery. The house however said valuation remains attractive – at 18.6x 2024F P/E – which is at the low end of its peer range of 20-25x.
RHb投资表示，尽管预计IOI Corporation的FY24F将以同比持平结束全年，但随着下游收入在全球需求复苏上改善，FY25F应该会有所改善。然而，该公司表示，估值仍然具有吸引力——2024F P/E为18.6x，处于同行范围的低端20-25x。
IOI Corp recorded a +5% YTDMay (11MFY24) FFB output growth, lower than its original FY24F growth target of +7% due to flooding in January in Sabah. Although the weather has normalised, IOI is now expecting FY24F and FY25F FFB growth to be around +5%. As this is in line with our projected 4-5% growth for FY24F-25F, RHB said it makes no changes to forecasts.
IOI Corp的全年FFB产量增长目标为+7%，但由于1月份沙巴州发生洪水，导致11MFY24的FFB产量增长仅为+5%。虽然天气已经恢复正常，但IOI现在预计FY24F和FY25F的FFB增长率大约为+5%。由于这与我们预计的FY24F-25F的4-5%增长率相符，RHb表示，预测不做出任何更改。
Production cost to remain flattish in FY25. 9MFY24 unit cost came in at MYR2,250/tonne, and the company expects FY24F cost to hover around the same level, translating to a 4% YoY reduction. IOI has secured its fertiliser requirements up to 1HFY25, at flattish prices YoY (vs FY24F fertiliser prices which were c.20-30% lower YoY) and is on track to achieve application target for FY24. As such, management also expects flattish CPO unit costs for FY25F. The house has adjust cost forecasts upwards slightly to reflect this.
FY25年生产成本将保持稳定。9MFY24单位成本为每吨2，250马币，公司预计FY24F成本将在相同水平上徘徊，相当于同比降低4%。IOI已经锁定了其到1HFY25年的肥料需求，以同比持平的价格（与FY24F的肥料价格相比，相对较低，同比降低了约20-30%），并计划实现FY24的应用目标。因此，管理层预计FY25F的CPO单位成本与现状保持稳定。该公司稍微调整了成本预测以反映这一情况。
Downstream operations are slowly showing margin improvement QoQ, driven by positive performances from the refinery and oleochemical segments in 3Q24. Utilisation rates for its refineries are however, still low, at 50%, while oleochemical utilisation rates are around 60% in 9M24. Going forward, while IOI expects the refinery subsegment to still continue facing stiff competition from Indonesia, the oleochemical subsegment is improving as demand picks up, coming from restocking activities. As such, management expects margin to improve to 3- 5% in 4QFY24 from 2-3% in 3QFY24. RHB has said that it makes no changes to a more conservative margin assumptions of 1% for FY24F and 2-3% for FY25F-26F.
下游业务逐渐显示出季度利润改善，由于第三季度精炼和油脂化学产品领域的表现出色。然而，其炼油厂的利用率仍然较低，为50%，而油脂化学产品的利用率在9M24年约为60%。展望未来，尽管IOI预计炼油子部门仍将面临来自印度尼西亚的激烈竞争，但油脂化学产品子部门正在改善，随着来自补货活动的需求增加。因此，管理层预计，较财季第三季度的2-3%，财季第四季度的利润率将提高至3-5%。RHb表示，在FY24F的更为保守的利润率假设为1%以及FY25F-26F的2-3%下，不作出任何更改。
Potential landbank monetisation? As of now, IOI is evaluating potential landbank monetisation for some of its aged plantation land areas for renewable energy development. Currently, IOI has c.24k ha of plantation landbank in Johor and 19k ha in Pahang. Some land that could be suitable would include 2-3k ha in Tangkak, Johor and 1k ha in Pahang – where the company could potentially rent land as well as operate solar assets – either on its own or with a JV partner.
可能出售土地库存？目前，IOI正在评估其某些老化种植园土地用于可再生能源开发的可能性。目前，IOI在柔佛州拥有约24,000公顷的种植园土地库存，在彭亨州则拥有约19,000公顷的土地库存。一些可能适合的土地包括丹绒加叻的2,000至3,000公顷以及彭亨的1,000公顷——在这里，该公司可以租赁土地并经营太阳能资产，无论是自行经营还是与合资伙伴合作。
The house has maintained a Buy call with slightly lower SOP-based TP of MYR4.30 (from MYR4.40) and tweaks forecasts down slightly by 3-4% for FY25F-26F, after raising unit costs.
公司维持买入评级的基础上，基于SOP的目标价略有下调至4.30马币（从4.40马币），并将FY25F-26F的预测下调了3-4%，因为单位成本上调。