These Analysts Think Daqo New Energy Corp.'s (NYSE:DQ) Sales Are Under Threat
These Analysts Think Daqo New Energy Corp.'s (NYSE:DQ) Sales Are Under Threat
Today is shaping up negative for Daqo New Energy Corp. (NYSE:DQ) shareholders, with the analysts delivering a substantial negative revision to this year's forecasts. This report focused on revenue estimates, and it looks as though the consensus view of the business has become substantially more conservative. Investors however, have been notably more optimistic about Daqo New Energy recently, with the stock price up a noteworthy 11% to US$17.20 in the past week. Whether the downgrade will have a negative impact on demand for shares is yet to be seen.
分析师发布了对大全新能源公司(纽交所:DQ)股东的负面评估,今年的预测有大幅度下调的趋势。该报告关注的是营业收入预估,但现在的一致认见明显变得小心谨慎。然而,投资者近期对大全新能源的看好程度很高,股价在过去一周里上涨了11%至17.20美元。降级评估是否对股价需求造成了负面影响尚有待观察。
Following the latest downgrade, the nine analysts covering Daqo New Energy provided consensus estimates of US$1.6b revenue in 2024, which would reflect a concerning 20% decline on its sales over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are supposed to nosedive 70% to US$0.77 in the same period. Previously, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$1.9b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.77 in 2024. So there's been a clear change in analyst sentiment in the recent update, with the analysts making a substantial drop in revenues and reconfirming their earnings per share estimates.
在最新一轮下调后,覆盖大全新能源的9位分析师预测2024年营业收入仅有16亿美元,这将反映过去12个月销售下降了20%,而每股收益也预计同期将暴跌70%至0.77美元。之前,这些分析师预测2024年收入为19亿美元,每股收益为0.77美元。因此,这一最新评估显示分析师对大全新能源的产业情绪存在明显变化,他们对营收的预估有了大幅下调,并重新确认了每股收益的预估。
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The average price target was steady at US$23.41 even though revenue estimates declined; likely suggesting the analysts place a higher value on earnings.
尽管营业收入预估下降,平均目标价仍稳定在23.41美元,这可能表明分析师对每股收益更加看重。
Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. These estimates imply that sales are expected to slow, with a forecast annualised revenue decline of 26% by the end of 2024. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 42% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 18% per year. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - Daqo New Energy is expected to lag the wider industry.
另一种解读这些预测的方法是将其放入更大的背景中来观察,比如与过去的业绩相比较,以及预测是否比行业中其他公司更看好或更谨慎。这些预测意味着销售预计将放缓,到2024年底年化营收下降26%。这表明与过去五年每年42%的年增长相比,减速的幅度相当大。相比之下,我们的数据显示,在同行业中,预计其他公司的收入每年增长18%。因此虽然销售预计将会下滑,但大全新能源公司未来的发展不会有太多的支持,预计会跑输整个行业。
The Bottom Line
最重要的事情是分析师增加了它对下一年每股亏损的估计。令人欣慰的是,营收预测未发生重大变化,业务仍有望比整个行业增长更快。共识价格目标稳定在28.50美元,最新估计不足以对价格目标产生影响。
The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with analysts reconfirming that earnings per share are expected to continue performing in line with their prior expectations. Unfortunately analysts also downgraded their revenue estimates, and industry data suggests that Daqo New Energy's revenues are expected to grow slower than the wider market. Given the stark change in sentiment, we'd understand if investors became more cautious on Daqo New Energy after today.
最重要的是情绪上没有明显的变化,分析师再次确认了每股收益的预估仍在之前的预期之中。不幸的是,分析师下调了他们的营收预估,行业数据也显示,大全新能源的收入预计比整个市场增长要慢。考虑到情绪发生了如此明显的变化,如果今天之后投资者变得更加谨慎,我们也是可以理解的。
Even so, the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for the value creation of shareholders. We have estimates - from multiple Daqo New Energy analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.
即便如此,商业的长期发展轨迹对于股东的价值创造来说更加重要。我们从多位大全新能源的分析师那里获取了向2026年的预估,您可以在我们的平台上免费查看。
Another way to search for interesting companies that could be reaching an inflection point is to track whether management are buying or selling, with our free list of growing companies backed by insiders.
跟踪管理层是购买还是销售,是寻找可能达到关键点的有趣公司的另一种方法,我们的免费公司列表由内部支持的增长公司组成。
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