An Intrinsic Calculation For Dollar Tree, Inc. (NASDAQ:DLTR) Suggests It's 42% Undervalued
An Intrinsic Calculation For Dollar Tree, Inc. (NASDAQ:DLTR) Suggests It's 42% Undervalued
Key Insights
主要见解
- The projected fair value for Dollar Tree is US$180 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity
- Dollar Tree is estimated to be 42% undervalued based on current share price of US$105
- The US$137 analyst price target for DLTR is 24% less than our estimate of fair value
- 根据2阶段自由现金流对股票的投资价值估值,美元树公司的预计公平价值为180美元。
- 根据当前的股价105美元,美元树公司的估值被低估了42%。
- 分析师对美元树公司的目标价为137美元,比我们的公平价值估计低24%。
Today we'll do a simple run through of a valuation method used to estimate the attractiveness of Dollar Tree, Inc. (NASDAQ:DLTR) as an investment opportunity by taking the forecast future cash flows of the company and discounting them back to today's value. The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model is the tool we will apply to do this. Before you think you won't be able to understand it, just read on! It's actually much less complex than you'd imagine.
今天我们将介绍一种估值方法,该方法用于估算美元树公司(NASDAQ:DLTR)作为投资机会的吸引力,通过获取公司未来的现金流预测值并将其打折回今天的价值。折现现金流量(DCF)模型是我们将应用于此的工具。在您认为自己无法理解之前,只需要继续阅读!实际上,它比您想象的要简单得多。
Remember though, that there are many ways to estimate a company's value, and a DCF is just one method. Anyone interested in learning a bit more about intrinsic value should have a read of the Simply Wall St analysis model.
不过请记住,估算公司价值有很多方法,DCF只是其中一种。有兴趣了解内在价值的人可以阅读Simply Wall St分析模型,从中学习一些知识。
Crunching The Numbers
数据统计
We're using the 2-stage growth model, which simply means we take in account two stages of company's growth. In the initial period the company may have a higher growth rate and the second stage is usually assumed to have a stable growth rate. To begin with, we have to get estimates of the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.
我们使用2阶段成长模型,这意味着我们考虑公司的两个成长阶段。在初始阶段,该公司的增长率可能较高,而第二阶段通常假定具有稳定的增长率。首先,我们必须获得未来10年现金流的估计。在可能的情况下,我们使用分析师的估计,但在没有可用估计时,我们会将以前的自由现金流(FCF)从最后一个估计或报告的价值中推导出来。我们假设自由现金流缩减的公司将减缓他们的缩减速度,并且自由现金流增长的公司在此期间将看到其增长率放缓。我们这样做是为了反映增长在早期年份的减速比晚期年份更加明显。
Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, so we need to discount the sum of these future cash flows to arrive at a present value estimate:
普遍认为今天的一美元比将来的一美元更有价值,因此我们需要贴现这些未来的现金流总和来得出现值估计:
10-year free cash flow (FCF) estimate
10年自由现金流 (FCF) 预估值
2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | |
Levered FCF ($, Millions) | US$211.7m | US$758.9m | US$1.24b | US$1.44b | US$1.60b | US$1.74b | US$1.86b | US$1.97b | US$2.06b | US$2.14b |
Growth Rate Estimate Source | Analyst x4 | Analyst x4 | Analyst x3 | Est @ 15.55% | Est @ 11.60% | Est @ 8.83% | Est @ 6.90% | Est @ 5.54% | Est @ 4.59% | Est @ 3.93% |
Present Value ($, Millions) Discounted @ 6.5% | US$199 | US$670 | US$1.0k | US$1.1k | US$1.2k | US$1.2k | US$1.2k | US$1.2k | US$1.2k | US$1.1k |
2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | |
杠杆自由现金流 ($, 百万) | 2.117亿美元。 | 758.9美元 | 12.4亿美元 | 21年自由现金流为14.4亿美元。 | 16.0亿美元 | 17.4亿美元 | 18.6亿美元 | 19.7亿美元 | 20.6亿美元 | 21.4亿美元 |
创业板增长率预测来源 | 分析师4人 | 分析师4人 | 分析师x3 | 预计 @ 15.55% | 预计 @ 11.60% | 预计 @ 8.83% | 预计 @ 6.90% | 估计为5.54% | Est @ 4.59% | 3.93%的估值增长率 |
现值(百万美元)以6.5%折现 | 美元199 | 6.70 | 1.0千美元 | 1.1千美元 | 1.2千美元 | 1.2千美元 | 1.2千美元 | 1.2千美元 | 1.2千美元 | 1.1千美元 |
("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = US$10b
("Est" = FCF增长率估计由Simply Wall St)
10年现金流量的现值(PVCF)= 100亿美元
We now need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all the future cash flows after this ten year period. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country's GDP growth. In this case we have used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (2.4%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year 'growth' period, we discount future cash flows to today's value, using a cost of equity of 6.5%.
现在我们需要计算终端值,它考虑了这10年期后的所有未来现金流。出于许多原因,使用了一个非常保守的增长率,不能超过一个国家的GDP增长率。在这种情况下,我们使用了10年政府债券收益率的5年平均数(2.4%)来估计未来增长。与10年“增长”期一样,我们使用资本成本率为6.5%折现未来的现金流到今天的价值。
Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2034 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = US$2.1b× (1 + 2.4%) ÷ (6.5%– 2.4%) = US$54b
终止价值(TV)=自由现金流 ×(1 + g)÷(r-g)=21亿美元×(1 + 2.4%)÷(6.5%– 2.4%)= 540亿美元
Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= US$54b÷ ( 1 + 6.5%)10= US$29b
终止价值现值(PVTV)= TV /(1 + r)10 = 540亿美元÷(1 + 6.5%)10 = 290亿美元
The total value is the sum of cash flows for the next ten years plus the discounted terminal value, which results in the Total Equity Value, which in this case is US$39b. The last step is to then divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of US$105, the company appears quite undervalued at a 42% discount to where the stock price trades currently. The assumptions in any calculation have a big impact on the valuation, so it is better to view this as a rough estimate, not precise down to the last cent.
总价值是未来十年现金流的总和加上折现的终止价值,从而得出总权益价值,本例中为390亿美元。最后一步是将权益价值除以流通股数。与当前股价105美元相比,公司似乎被低估了42%。任何计算中的假设都会对估值产生很大的影响,因此最好视其为粗略的估计,而不是精确到最后一分钱。
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The Assumptions
假设
Now the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate, and of course, the actual cash flows. Part of investing is coming up with your own evaluation of a company's future performance, so try the calculation yourself and check your own assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Dollar Tree as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 6.5%, which is based on a levered beta of 0.887. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.
尽管重要,DCF计算不应是您仔细分析公司的唯一工具。DCF模型不是完美的股票估值工具。最好还要应用不同的情形和假设,看看它们如何影响公司的估值。例如,公司的权益成本或无风险利率的变化可能会对估值产生重大影响。为什么股价低于内在价值?对于美元树公司,有三个重要方面值得您关注:
Next Steps:
下一步:
Whilst important, the DCF calculation ideally won't be the sole piece of analysis you scrutinize for a company. The DCF model is not a perfect stock valuation tool. Preferably you'd apply different cases and assumptions and see how they would impact the company's valuation. For example, changes in the company's cost of equity or the risk free rate can significantly impact the valuation. What is the reason for the share price sitting below the intrinsic value? For Dollar Tree, there are three important aspects you should look at:
未来收益:DLTR的增长率与同行业和市场整体水平相比如何?通过与我们的免费分析师增长预期图表交互,深入了解未来数年的分析师共识数字。
- Financial Health: Does DLTR have a healthy balance sheet? Take a look at our free balance sheet analysis with six simple checks on key factors like leverage and risk.
- Future Earnings: How does DLTR's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
- Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!
- 财务健康状况:DLTR的资产负债表状况如何?查看我们的免费资产负债表分析,了解关键因素的六个简单检查,如杠杆和风险。
- 未来收益:DLTR的增长率如何与同行和更广泛的市场相比?通过与我们的免费分析师增长预期图表交互,深入了解未来几年的分析师共识数字。
- 其他优秀企业:低负债,高股本回报率和良好的过去业绩是构建强大企业基础的基础。为什么不探索我们交互式的股票列表,其中包括具有坚实业务基础的其他公司?
PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every American stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.
PS. Simply Wall St每天都会更新其对每只美国股票的折现现金流计算,因此,如果你想找到其他股票的内在价值,只需在此搜索即可。
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
对本文有反馈?对内容感到担忧?请直接与我们联系。或者,发送电子邮件至editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com。
这篇文章是Simply Wall St的一般性文章。我们根据历史数据和分析师预测提供评论,只使用公正的方法论,我们的文章并不意味着提供任何金融建议。文章不构成买卖任何股票的建议,也不考虑您的目标或您的财务状况。我们的目标是带给您基本数据驱动的长期关注分析。请注意,我们的分析可能不考虑最新的价格敏感公司公告或定性材料。Simply Wall St没有任何股票头寸。
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com
对本文有反馈?对内容感到担忧?请直接与我们联系。或者,发送电子邮件至editorial-team@simplywallst.com。