Fed's Goolsbee Confident With Inflation's 'Golden Path,' But Won't Tie Committee Hands On September Fed Cut: Stocks Fall
Fed's Goolsbee Confident With Inflation's 'Golden Path,' But Won't Tie Committee Hands On September Fed Cut: Stocks Fall
Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee expressed confidence that the inflation trend is on a "golden path," characterized by a stable decline without triggering a recession. However, he refrained from explicitly stating his intentions regarding possible future interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.
芝加哥联储主席奥斯汀•古尔斯比（Austan Goolsbee）表示，通胀趋势正处于“黄金道路”，其特点是稳定下降而不引发经济衰退。然而，他没有明确表示联邦储备委员会未来可能的利率削减意图。
Investors, instead, are getting increasingly convinced of a September rate cut, with odds near 100%, according to the CME Fed Watch Tool.
相反，投资者越来越确信9月份将进行利率削减，根据CME Fed Watch Tool的数据，几乎有100%的概率。
Golden Path, But No Pre-Commitments
黄金道路，但没有前期承诺
In an interview with Yahoo Finance on Thursday, Goolsbee highlighted, "We've had multiple months in a row of improvement," and noted the inflation surprise at the beginning of the year appeared to be just "a bump on the road."
在周四接受雅虎金融采访时，古尔斯比强调：“我们已经连续多个月实现了改善”，并指出今年年初的通胀惊喜似乎只是“一次意外事件”。
He stressed that inflation has significantly decreased over the past 12 to 18 months, describing it as one of the fastest declines in U.S. history, achieved without causing a recession. This unprecedented scenario, he said, represented the "golden path."
他强调，通胀在过去12至18个月显著下降，被描述为美国历史上最快的下降之一，而没有导致经济衰退。他说，这种前所未有的情况代表了“黄金道路”。
Goolsbee also highlighted the anticipated declines in housing inflation and improvements in the services sector. He emphasized the consistent month-to-month improvements in various components of inflation are indicative of progress toward the 2% target.
古尔斯比还强调了住房通胀预期下降和服务业改善。他强调，通胀各组分的连续月度改善表明朝着2%的目标取得了进展。
Regarding labor market conditions, Goolsbee acknowledged some "warning lights" but stated the situation does not currently resemble a recession, rather a cooling back to better balance. He reiterated that the job market hasn't shown signs of traditional overheating.
关于劳动力市场状况，古尔斯比承认出现了一些“警告信号”，但表示目前的情况并不像经济衰退，而是向更好的平衡调整。他重申，就业市场没有显示出传统的过热迹象。
When asked about the potential for a rate cut, Goolsbee expressed his reluctance to make premature commitments, preferring to await more data and the views of other Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members.
被问及利率削减的可能性时，古尔斯比表示不愿意做出过早的承诺，而是更愿意等待更多数据和其他联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）成员的观点。
"I don't like tying our hands ahead of time," he said. He emphasized the importance of flexibility, stating he would not commit to a specific timeline for rate cuts at this time.
“我不喜欢提前束缚我们的手脚，”他说。他强调灵活性的重要性，表示目前不会承诺特定的利率削减时间表。
Market Reactions: Stocks Decline
市场反应：股票下跌
Both the dollar and Treasury yields remained relatively unchanged during Goolsbee's remarks. The U.S. dollar index maintained its session gains, with the Invesco DB USD Index Bullish Fund ETF (NYSE:UUP) up 0.28%. Treasury yields saw only marginal increases on the long end.
在古尔斯比的讲话中，美元和国债收益率均保持相对稳定。美元指数维持其局部涨幅，Invesco Db USD Index Bullish Fund ETF（NYSE：UUP）上涨0.28％。国债收益率在长端仅略微上涨。
The U.S. stock market experienced a decline after 10:30 a.m. ET, with all major indices flipping to losses. The Russell 2000 also erased its session gains.
美国股市在上午10:30之后出现下跌，所有主要指数都翻转亏损。罗素2000指数也抹去了其上涨的部分。
Both the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY) and the tech-heavy Invesco QQQ Trust (NASDAQ:QQQ) were down 0.1%.
SPDR S＆P 500 ETF Trust（NYSE：SPY）和科技股为主的Invesco QQQ Trust（NASDAQ：QQQ）均下跌0.1％。
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Photo: Shutterstock
Photo: shutterstock