Is Kosmos Energy (NYSE:KOS) A Risky Investment?
Is Kosmos Energy (NYSE:KOS) A Risky Investment?
Some say volatility, rather than debt, is the best way to think about risk as an investor, but Warren Buffett famously said that 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' It's only natural to consider a company's balance sheet when you examine how risky it is, since debt is often involved when a business collapses. Importantly, Kosmos Energy Ltd. (NYSE:KOS) does carry debt. But is this debt a concern to shareholders?
有人认为,对于投资者来说,波动性而非债务是风险的最佳思考方式,但沃伦·巴菲特曾说过:“波动性远非与风险同义词。”当你考虑一家公司的风险水平时,考虑其资产负债表是很自然的,因为当一家企业破产时往往涉及债务。Kosmos Energy Ltd.(纽交所:kosmos energy)的重要性在于,其确实存在债务。但这个债务是否让股东感到担忧呢?
When Is Debt A Problem?
什么时候负债才是一个问题?
Debt and other liabilities become risky for a business when it cannot easily fulfill those obligations, either with free cash flow or by raising capital at an attractive price. In the worst case scenario, a company can go bankrupt if it cannot pay its creditors. However, a more frequent (but still costly) occurrence is where a company must issue shares at bargain-basement prices, permanently diluting shareholders, just to shore up its balance sheet. Of course, debt can be an important tool in businesses, particularly capital heavy businesses. The first step when considering a company's debt levels is to consider its cash and debt together.
当一家企业无法以自由现金流或以合理价格筹集资本时,债务和其他负债就会变得危险。在最坏的情况下,如果一家公司无法偿付其债权人的债务,便会破产。然而,更频繁(但同样代价高昂)的情况是,公司必须以低于市价的价格发行股票,以永久性稀释股东权益,以平衡其资产负债表。当然,在企业中,债务可能是一项重要的工具,尤其是在资本密集型企业中。在考虑公司的债务水平时,首先要考虑其现金和债务的结合。
What Is Kosmos Energy's Debt?
Kosmos Energy的债务是什么?
As you can see below, at the end of March 2024, Kosmos Energy had US$2.66b of debt, up from US$2.22b a year ago. Click the image for more detail. On the flip side, it has US$254.3m in cash leading to net debt of about US$2.40b.
如下所示,截至2024年3月底,Kosmos Energy的债务为26.6亿美元,比一年前的22.2亿美元有所增加。点击图片获取更多详细信息。与此同时,它持有2.543亿美元的现金,因此净债务约为24亿美元。
![big](https://usnewsfile.moomoo.com/public/MM-PersistNewsContentImage/7781/20240719/0-81051a1c82d0c6594bb8ed687d10e155-0-d1a7f9a1cfad4f820d725591b6e5b16b.png/big)
How Healthy Is Kosmos Energy's Balance Sheet?
Kosmos Energy的资产负债表健康状况如何?
Zooming in on the latest balance sheet data, we can see that Kosmos Energy had liabilities of US$665.4m due within 12 months and liabilities of US$3.61b due beyond that. Offsetting these obligations, it had cash of US$254.3m as well as receivables valued at US$121.8m due within 12 months. So its liabilities total US$3.90b more than the combination of its cash and short-term receivables.
通过分析最近的资产负债表数据,我们可以看到,Kosmos Energy有6.654亿美元的负债在12个月内到期,36.1亿美元的负债超过了这一期限。对抗这些义务,它持有2.543亿美元的现金和价值121.8万美元的应收款项到期在12个月内。因此,其负债总额超过了其现金和短期应收款项的总和39亿美元。考虑到这个缺口超过公司27.4亿美元的市值,你可能会倾向于仔细审查资产负债表。假设公司被迫以当前股价筹集资本来偿还其债务,极端的股权稀释可能是必要的。
When you consider that this deficiency exceeds the company's US$2.74b market capitalization, you might well be inclined to review the balance sheet intently. Hypothetically, extremely heavy dilution would be required if the company were forced to pay down its liabilities by raising capital at the current share price.
Kosmos Energy的净债务2.1倍EBITDA表明使用债务的优雅。而其过去12个月的EBIT是其利息费用的8.2倍,与这一主题相一致。不幸的是,Kosmos Energy的EBIT在过去四个季度内下跌了11%。如果这种降幅没有得到制止,那么管理其债务将比以溢价销售西兰花味冰淇淋更加困难。分析债务水平时,资产负债表是一个明显的开始。但未来的收益更甚于任何事情,这将决定Kosmos Energy未来维持健康资产负债表的能力。因此,如果你想看看专业人士的想法,你可能会发现这份关于分析师盈利预测的免费报告很有趣。
We measure a company's debt load relative to its earnings power by looking at its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and by calculating how easily its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) cover its interest expense (interest cover). Thus we consider debt relative to earnings both with and without depreciation and amortization expenses.
通过查看公司的净债务与利息、税、折旧、摊销前利润(EBITDA)之比以及它的利息费用(利息覆盖率)可以衡量一个公司的债务负担与收益能力。因此,我们考虑将债务与有无计算折旧和摊销费用的收益相对比。
Kosmos Energy's net debt of 2.1 times EBITDA suggests graceful use of debt. And the fact that its trailing twelve months of EBIT was 8.2 times its interest expenses harmonizes with that theme. Unfortunately, Kosmos Energy's EBIT flopped 11% over the last four quarters. If that sort of decline is not arrested, then the managing its debt will be harder than selling broccoli flavoured ice-cream for a premium. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine Kosmos Energy's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.
Kosmos Energy的净债务与EBITDA的比率为2.1倍,表明其债务的优雅使用。事实上,这家公司过去12个月的EBIT是其利息支出的8.2倍,与这一主题相一致。不幸的是,Kosmos Energy的EBIT在过去四个季度内下跌了11%。如果这种降幅没有得到制止,那么管理其债务将比以溢价销售西兰花味冰淇淋更加困难。当你考虑这些因素时,资产负债表是一个明显的开始。
But our final consideration is also important, because a company cannot pay debt with paper profits; it needs cold hard cash. So it's worth checking how much of that EBIT is backed by free cash flow. During the last three years, Kosmos Energy burned a lot of cash. While that may be a result of expenditure for growth, it does make the debt far more risky.
但是,我们的最终考虑也很重要,因为一家公司不能用纸面利润偿还债务,它需要有大量的现金流。因此,检查其EBIT有多少是由自由现金流支持的就很值得。在过去的三年中,Kosmos Energy烧掉了大量的现金。虽然这可能是由于创业花费,但它使债务变得更加冒险。
Our View
我们的观点
On the face of it, Kosmos Energy's level of total liabilities left us tentative about the stock, and its conversion of EBIT to free cash flow was no more enticing than the one empty restaurant on the busiest night of the year. But at least it's pretty decent at covering its interest expense with its EBIT; that's encouraging. After considering the datapoints discussed, we think Kosmos Energy has too much debt. While some investors love that sort of risky play, it's certainly not our cup of tea. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. For instance, we've identified 2 warning signs for Kosmos Energy that you should be aware of.
从表面上看,Kosmos Energy的总负债水平使我们对其股票持谨慎态度,其EBIT转换为自由现金流的能力也不如一年中最繁忙的夜晚空着的一家餐馆有吸引力。但至少它在利息支付方面的覆盖水平相当不错,这是令人鼓舞的。考虑到上述数据点,我们认为Kosmos Energy的债务过多。虽然有些投资者喜欢这种冒险的投资,但这显然不是我们喜欢的。当你分析债务时,很明显要集中在资产负债表上。但最终,每个公司都可能存在超出资产负债表的风险。例如,我们已经发现Kosmos Energy存在两个警告信号,你应该注意。
At the end of the day, it's often better to focus on companies that are free from net debt. You can access our special list of such companies (all with a track record of profit growth). It's free.
总的来说,专注于没有净债务的公司往往更好。您可以访问我们的特别列表,其中包含这些公司(所有这些公司都有盈利增长的记录)。这是免费的。
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