Pulling Back 5.3% This Week, GuiZhou QianYuan Power's SZSE:002039) Five-year Decline in Earnings May Be Coming Into Investors Focus
Pulling Back 5.3% This Week, GuiZhou QianYuan Power's SZSE:002039) Five-year Decline in Earnings May Be Coming Into Investors Focus
Stock pickers are generally looking for stocks that will outperform the broader market. And the truth is, you can make significant gains if you buy good quality businesses at the right price. For example, the GuiZhou QianYuan Power Co., Ltd. (SZSE:002039) share price is up 70% in the last 5 years, clearly besting the market return of around 1.5% (ignoring dividends). However, more recent returns haven't been as impressive as that, with the stock returning just 25% in the last year, including dividends.
股票选择者通常寻找能够超越整个市场的股票。事实上,如果您以正确的价格购买优质的企业,那么您将能够获得可观的收益。例如,黔源电力股份有限公司(SZSE:002039)的股价在过去的5年里上涨了70%,明显优于市场回报率约1.5%(不考虑红利)。但是,最近的回报并没有像那样引人瞩目,包括股息在内的股票收益在过去一年中仅为25%。
In light of the stock dropping 5.3% in the past week, we want to investigate the longer term story, and see if fundamentals have been the driver of the company's positive five-year return.
鉴于该股上周下跌了5.3%,我们想调查更长期的情况,看看基本面是否是公司五年回报的驱动力。
While markets are a powerful pricing mechanism, share prices reflect investor sentiment, not just underlying business performance. By comparing earnings per share (EPS) and share price changes over time, we can get a feel for how investor attitudes to a company have morphed over time.
尽管市场是一个强大的定价机制,股价不仅反映了基本业务表现,还反映了投资者的情绪。通过比较每股收益(EPS)和股价变化,并随时间推移这样做,我们可以了解股东对公司的态度如何随时间变化。
GuiZhou QianYuan Power's earnings per share are down 3.8% per year, despite strong share price performance over five years.
尽管在过去5年中股票表现强劲,黔源电力的每股收益年均下降3.8%。
So it's hard to argue that the earnings per share are the best metric to judge the company, as it may not be optimized for profits at this point. Therefore, it's worth taking a look at other metrics to try to understand the share price movements.
因此,很难认为每股收益是判断公司的最佳指标,因为它可能在此时未被优化以获取利润。因此,值得查看其他指标以尝试了解股价的动向。
The modest 1.1% dividend yield is unlikely to be propping up the share price. The revenue reduction of 2.6% per year is not a positive. It certainly surprises us that the share price is up, but perhaps a closer examination of the data will yield answers.
适度的1.1%的股息收益率不太可能支撑股价。每年2.6%的营业收入减少并不是一件好事。股价上涨的结果确实让我们感到惊讶,但也许更详细地审查数据将会得出答案。
You can see how earnings and revenue have changed over time in the image below (click on the chart to see the exact values).
你可以在下面的图片中看到收入和营业收入随时间的变化情况(单击图表可查看精确值)。
![big](https://usnewsfile.moomoo.com/public/MM-PersistNewsContentImage/7781/20240719/0-eefa28522a6a1c49e91411af9beae161-0-4ab25a7e99d5e24447c80ddfdbc26391.png/big)
Balance sheet strength is crucial. It might be well worthwhile taking a look at our free report on how its financial position has changed over time.
资产负债表强度至关重要。查看我们关于其财务状况如何随时间变化的免费报告可能很值得一看。
What About Dividends?
那么分红怎么样呢?
When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. As it happens, GuiZhou QianYuan Power's TSR for the last 5 years was 86%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!
在考虑投资回报率时,重要的是要考虑总股东回报(TSR)与股票回报之间的差异。股票回报仅反映股票价格的变化,而TSR包括股息的价值(假设它们被再投资)和任何优惠的资本筹集或剥离的优惠。很公正地说,对于支付股息的股票,TSR为股票提供了更完整的图像。恰好黔源电力的TSR在过去5年中为86%,超过了前面提到的股价回报。这在很大程度上是其股息支付的结果!
A Different Perspective
不同的观点
It's good to see that GuiZhou QianYuan Power has rewarded shareholders with a total shareholder return of 25% in the last twelve months. Of course, that includes the dividend. That's better than the annualised return of 13% over half a decade, implying that the company is doing better recently. Someone with an optimistic perspective could view the recent improvement in TSR as indicating that the business itself is getting better with time. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Consider for instance, the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 2 warning signs with GuiZhou QianYuan Power (at least 1 which is concerning) , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.
很高兴看到黔源电力在过去12个月中为股东提供了25%的总股东回报。当然,其中包括股息。这比过去半个世纪13%的年化回报率好,这意味着近期该公司的表现更好。乐观的人会认为TSR的最近改善表明企业本身随着时间的推移正在变得更好。我很感兴趣地观察长期的股票价格表现作为业务表现的代理。但是,要真正获得洞察力,我们还需要考虑其他信息。例如,考虑投资风险这个永恒的幽灵。我们已经发现了黔源电力的2个警示信号(至少有1个令人担忧),了解它们应该成为您的投资过程的一部分。
Of course, you might find a fantastic investment by looking elsewhere. So take a peek at this free list of companies we expect will grow earnings.
当然,您可能在其他地方找到一家出色的企业进行投资。因此,请查看我们预计将实现盈利增长的公司的免费列表。
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Chinese exchanges.
请注意,本文引用的市场回报反映了目前在中国交易所上市的股票的市场加权平均回报。
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
对本文有任何反馈?对内容有任何疑虑?请直接与我们联系。或者,发送电子邮件至editorial-team@simplywallst.com。
这篇文章是Simply Wall St的一般性文章。我们根据历史数据和分析师预测提供评论,只使用公正的方法论,我们的文章并不意味着提供任何金融建议。文章不构成买卖任何股票的建议,也不考虑您的目标或您的财务状况。我们的目标是带给您基本数据驱动的长期关注分析。请注意,我们的分析可能不考虑最新的价格敏感公司公告或定性材料。Simply Wall St没有任何股票头寸。
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com
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