IPhone16 Projections Questioned: Ming-Chi Kuo Says Expecting Apple Intelligence To Drive Sales 'May Be Too Optimistic'
IPhone16 Projections Questioned: Ming-Chi Kuo Says Expecting Apple Intelligence To Drive Sales 'May Be Too Optimistic'
Top analyst Ming-Chi Kuo has cast doubt on the anticipated surge in Apple Inc.'s (NASDAQ:AAPL) upcoming smartphone series, iPhone 16 sales.
顶尖分析师郭明锦质疑苹果公司（NASDAQ：AAPL）即将推出的智能手机系列 iPhone 16的销售热潮。
What Happened: On Thursday, Kuo, an analyst at TF Securities stated that Apple has not ramped up its iPhone 16 orders, contrary to certain reports.
发生了什么：周四，TF证券的分析师郭明锦表示，与某些报道相反，苹果尚未加速其iPhone 16的订单。
His latest observation came after the latest earnings reports from Apple suppliers TSMC and Largan. Neither TSMC nor Largan have reported an increase in unit growth, and Largan's orders for high-end models in 2024 are on par with those of the previous year, according to Kuo.
在苹果供应商TSMC和Largan发布最新财报后，他得出了这个最新的观察结果。根据郭明锦的说法，TSMC和Largan都没有报告出单位增长，Largan在2024年的高端机型订单与去年持平。
Kuo estimates that Apple's iPhone 16 orders for the second half of 2024 are around 87 million units, lower than the 91 million iPhone 15 units ordered in 2023.
郭明锦估计，苹果iPhone 16在2024年下半年的订单大约为8700万部，低于2023年订购的9100万部iPhone 15。
While some suppliers may have been asked to increase production, Kuo suggests this could be due to "specific reasons within individual industries or components."
虽然某些供应商可能已经被要求增加生产，但郭明锦认为这可能是由于“个别行业或元件内的特定原因”。
He also expressed doubt over the belief that the new Apple Intelligence feature will significantly drive iPhone 16 sales.
他还对认为新的苹果智能功能将大幅推动iPhone 16销售的信念表示怀疑。
"Regardless of whether Apple Intelligence alone can drive replacement demand (which is another big topic), the expectation that consumers will buy the new iPhone 16 for the Beta version of Apple Intelligence in 2H24 may be too optimistic," Kuo stated.
郭明锦说：“无论‘苹果智能’是否能够单独推动更新换代的需求（这是另一个大问题），认为消费者会因2H24的‘苹果智能’测试版而购买新的iPhone 16可能太过乐观了。”
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Although there have been rumors of increased orders for iPhone 16 orders from time to time after WWDC, recent earnings calls from two key Apple suppliers (TSMC and Largan) have hinted that the iPhone 16 orders may not have increased
— 郭明錤 (Ming-Chi Kuo) (@mingchikuo) July 18, 2024
尽管在WWDC之后有关iPhone 16订单增加的传言时有发生，但两个关键苹果供应商（TSMC和Largan）最近的财务电话暗示iPhone 16订单可能没有增加。
—— 郭明錤 (Ming-Chi Kuo) (@mingchikuo) 2024年7月18日
Why It Matters: The iPhone 16 series was expected to trigger an AI-driven upgrade "supercycle." Kuo previously also said that the upcoming smartphone series may not come with significant hardware changes.
为什么重要：预计iPhone 16系列将触发一次AI驱动的升级“超级周期”。郭明锦此前也表示，即将推出的智能手机系列可能不会带来重大的硬件变化。
Apple was reportedly counting on AI services to fuel demand for its new lineup after a challenging 2023. The company aimed to ship at least 90 million iPhone 16 devices in the latter half of this year, targeting about 10% growth in shipments of new iPhones compared with their predecessors.
据报道，苹果计划通过AI服务推动新系列的需求，在2023年经历一番艰难之后，公司旨在在今年下半年运送至少9000万部iPhone 16设备，瞄准新iPhone发货量比前代增长10%。
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