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3SBio (HKG:1530) Investors Are Sitting on a Loss of 48% If They Invested Five Years Ago

3SBio (HKG:1530) Investors Are Sitting on a Loss of 48% If They Invested Five Years Ago

如果五年前在3SBio (HKG:1530)投资,投资者现在面临着48%的亏损。
Simply Wall St ·  07/19 20:06

3SBio Inc. (HKG:1530) shareholders should be happy to see the share price up 18% in the last quarter. But that doesn't change the fact that the returns over the last five years have been less than pleasing. You would have done a lot better buying an index fund, since the stock has dropped 50% in that half decade.

3SBio Inc.(HKG:1530)的股东应该很高兴看到上个季度股价上涨了18%。但这并不改变过去5年的回报率令人不满意的事实。如果在过去的5年中购买指数基金,你会做得更好,因为该股在这个半十年里下跌了50%。

It's worthwhile assessing if the company's economics have been moving in lockstep with these underwhelming shareholder returns, or if there is some disparity between the two. So let's do just that.

值得评估公司的经济状况是否与这些不尽如人意的股东回报同时发展并步调一致,或者两者之间是否存在差异。因此,让我们来看看。

To paraphrase Benjamin Graham: Over the short term the market is a voting machine, but over the long term it's a weighing machine. One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company's share price and its earnings per share (EPS).

用本杰明·格雷厄姆的话来说:“短期市场是一台投票机,但长期市场是一台称重机”。检查市场情绪如何随时间推移变化的一种方式是查看公司股价和每股收益(EPS)之间的相互作用。

While the share price declined over five years, 3SBio actually managed to increase EPS by an average of 5.5% per year. So it doesn't seem like EPS is a great guide to understanding how the market is valuing the stock. Alternatively, growth expectations may have been unreasonable in the past.

虽然股价在五年内下跌,但3SBio每年实际上成功增长了5.5%的每股收益。因此,似乎EPS并不是了解市场如何估值该股票的好指南。另一方面,过去的增长预期可能不合理。

Because of the sharp contrast between the EPS growth rate and the share price growth, we're inclined to look to other metrics to understand the changing market sentiment around the stock.

由于EPS增长率与股价增长率之间的明显对比,我们倾向于寻找其他指标以了解股票周围变化的市场情绪。

Revenue is actually up 10.0% over the time period. A more detailed examination of the revenue and earnings may or may not explain why the share price languishes; there could be an opportunity.

营业收入实际上在此期间上升了10.0%。更详细的收入和收益审查可能会或可能不会解释为什么股价停滞不前;这可能是机会。

You can see how earnings and revenue have changed over time in the image below (click on the chart to see the exact values).

你可以在下面的图片中看到收入和营业收入随时间的变化情况(单击图表可查看精确值)。

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SEHK:1530 Earnings and Revenue Growth July 20th 2024
SEHK:1530自2024年7月20日以来的收益和营收增长

Balance sheet strength is crucial. It might be well worthwhile taking a look at our free report on how its financial position has changed over time.

资产负债表强度至关重要。查看我们关于其财务状况如何随时间变化的免费报告可能很值得一看。

What About Dividends?

那么分红怎么样呢?

As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. As it happens, 3SBio's TSR for the last 5 years was -48%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!

除了衡量股价回报率之外,投资者也应考虑总股东回报率(TSR)。股价回报率仅反映股价的变化,而TSR包括股息的价值(假设它们被再投资)和任何折价的资本筹资或分拆的好处。可以说,TSR提供了一种更全面的股票图像,适用于支付股息的股票。事实上,过去5年3SBio的TSR为-48%,超过先前提到的股价回报率。没有什么奖励可比猜测股息支付在很大程度上解释了这种差异!

A Different Perspective

不同的观点

Investors in 3SBio had a tough year, with a total loss of 11% (including dividends), against a market gain of about 5.8%. However, keep in mind that even the best stocks will sometimes underperform the market over a twelve month period. Unfortunately, longer term shareholders are suffering worse, given the loss of 8% doled out over the last five years. We would want clear information suggesting the company will grow, before taking the view that the share price will stabilize. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Consider risks, for instance. Every company has them, and we've spotted 1 warning sign for 3SBio you should know about.

3SBio的投资者经历了艰难的一年,总损失为11%(包括股息),而市场则增长了约5.8%。但是,请记住,即使是最好的股票有时也会在12个月的时间内表现不佳。不幸的是,长期股东在过去5年中遭受了更严重的损失,损失了8%。除非有明确的信息表明该公司将增长,否则我们不会认为股价将稳定下来。我觉得长期视角下的股价是企业业绩的代表非常有趣。但要真正获得深入的洞察,我们需要考虑其他信息。例如,考虑风险。每个公司都有风险,我们已经发现3SBio的1个警告信号,你应该知道。

Of course 3SBio may not be the best stock to buy. So you may wish to see this free collection of growth stocks.

当然,3SBio可能不是最好的股票可供购买。因此,您可能希望查看这个免费的成长股收藏。

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Hong Kong exchanges.

请注意,本文引用的市场回报反映了当前在香港证券交易所交易的股票的市场加权平均回报。

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

对本文有反馈?对内容感到担忧?请直接与我们联系。或者,发送电子邮件至editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com。
这篇文章是Simply Wall St的一般性文章。我们根据历史数据和分析师预测提供评论,只使用公正的方法论,我们的文章并不意味着提供任何金融建议。文章不构成买卖任何股票的建议,也不考虑您的目标或您的财务状况。我们的目标是带给您基本数据驱动的长期关注分析。请注意,我们的分析可能不考虑最新的价格敏感公司公告或定性材料。Simply Wall St没有任何股票头寸。

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com

对本文有反馈?对内容感到担忧?请直接与我们联系。或者,发送电子邮件至editorial-team@simplywallst.com。

声明:本内容仅用作提供资讯及教育之目的,不构成对任何特定投资或投资策略的推荐或认可。 更多信息
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