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Is CITIC Heavy Industries (SHSE:601608) A Risky Investment?

Is CITIC Heavy Industries (SHSE:601608) A Risky Investment?

中信重工(SHSE:601608)是一项高风险的投资吗?
Simply Wall St ·  07/20 20:14

Warren Buffett famously said, 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' When we think about how risky a company is, we always like to look at its use of debt, since debt overload can lead to ruin. As with many other companies CITIC Heavy Industries Co., Ltd. (SHSE:601608) makes use of debt. But is this debt a concern to shareholders?

沃伦·巴菲特曾说过一句名言:“波动性远非风险的代名词。”当我们考虑一家公司的风险时,我们总是喜欢考虑其债务的用途,因为债务过载可能导致破产。与许多其他公司一样,中信重工股份有限公司(SHSE: 601608)也使用债务。但是这笔债务是股东关心的问题吗?

When Is Debt Dangerous?

债务何时危险?

Debt and other liabilities become risky for a business when it cannot easily fulfill those obligations, either with free cash flow or by raising capital at an attractive price. Ultimately, if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt, shareholders could walk away with nothing. While that is not too common, we often do see indebted companies permanently diluting shareholders because lenders force them to raise capital at a distressed price. Of course, debt can be an important tool in businesses, particularly capital heavy businesses. When we think about a company's use of debt, we first look at cash and debt together.

当企业无法通过自由现金流或以有吸引力的价格筹集资金来轻松履行债务和其他负债时,债务和其他负债就会面临风险。归根结底,如果公司无法履行偿还债务的法律义务,股东可能一无所有地离开。尽管这种情况不太常见,但我们经常会看到负债公司永久稀释股东,因为贷款人强迫他们以不利的价格筹集资金。当然,债务可以成为企业,尤其是资本密集型企业的重要工具。当我们考虑公司使用债务时,我们首先要同时考虑现金和债务。

What Is CITIC Heavy Industries's Net Debt?

中信重工的净负债是多少?

You can click the graphic below for the historical numbers, but it shows that CITIC Heavy Industries had CN¥2.13b of debt in March 2024, down from CN¥3.19b, one year before. However, it does have CN¥1.10b in cash offsetting this, leading to net debt of about CN¥1.03b.

你可以点击下图查看历史数字,但它显示中信重工在2024年3月的债务为21.3元人民币,低于一年前的31.9元人民币。但是,它确实有11元人民币的现金抵消了这一点,净负债约为10.3元人民币。

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SHSE:601608 Debt to Equity History July 21st 2024
SHSE: 601608 2024 年 7 月 21 日债务与股权比率的历史记录

A Look At CITIC Heavy Industries' Liabilities

看看中信重工的负债

Zooming in on the latest balance sheet data, we can see that CITIC Heavy Industries had liabilities of CN¥8.03b due within 12 months and liabilities of CN¥1.78b due beyond that. Offsetting these obligations, it had cash of CN¥1.10b as well as receivables valued at CN¥4.54b due within 12 months. So it has liabilities totalling CN¥4.17b more than its cash and near-term receivables, combined.

放大最新的资产负债表数据,我们可以看到,中信重工的负债为80.3元人民币,12个月内到期,负债为17.8元人民币。除了这些债务外,它还有11元人民币的现金和价值45.4元人民币的应收账款将在12个月内到期。因此,它的负债总额为41.7元人民币,比现金和短期应收账款的总和高出41.7元人民币。

CITIC Heavy Industries has a market capitalization of CN¥16.7b, so it could very likely raise cash to ameliorate its balance sheet, if the need arose. But we definitely want to keep our eyes open to indications that its debt is bringing too much risk.

中信重工的市值为167元人民币,因此,如果需要,它很可能会筹集资金以改善其资产负债表。但是,我们绝对希望留意其债务带来过大风险的迹象。

In order to size up a company's debt relative to its earnings, we calculate its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) divided by its interest expense (its interest cover). Thus we consider debt relative to earnings both with and without depreciation and amortization expenses.

为了扩大公司相对于收益的负债规模,我们计算其净负债除以利息、税项、折旧和摊销前的收益(EBITDA),将其利息和税前收益(EBIT)除以利息支出(利息保障)。因此,我们将债务与收益的关系考虑在内,包括和不包括折旧和摊销费用。

CITIC Heavy Industries's net debt to EBITDA ratio of about 1.7 suggests only moderate use of debt. And its strong interest cover of 1k times, makes us even more comfortable. It was also good to see that despite losing money on the EBIT line last year, CITIC Heavy Industries turned things around in the last 12 months, delivering and EBIT of CN¥322m. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But you can't view debt in total isolation; since CITIC Heavy Industries will need earnings to service that debt. So if you're keen to discover more about its earnings, it might be worth checking out this graph of its long term earnings trend.

中信重工的净负债与息税折旧摊销前利润的比率约为1.7,这表明债务的使用量不大。而且其0.1万倍的强大利息保障,使我们更加自在。同样令人高兴的是,尽管去年息税前利润线出现亏损,但中信重工在过去12个月中扭转了局面,交付额和息税前利润为32200万元人民币。资产负债表显然是分析债务时需要关注的领域。但是你不能完全孤立地看待债务;因为中信重工需要收益来偿还债务。因此,如果你想进一步了解其收益,可能值得看看这张长期收益趋势图。

Finally, while the tax-man may adore accounting profits, lenders only accept cold hard cash. So it's worth checking how much of the earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) is backed by free cash flow. Over the last year, CITIC Heavy Industries actually produced more free cash flow than EBIT. That sort of strong cash conversion gets us as excited as the crowd when the beat drops at a Daft Punk concert.

最后,尽管税务人员可能喜欢会计利润,但贷款人只接受冷硬现金。因此,值得检查一下利息和税前收益(EBIT)中有多少是由自由现金流支持的。去年,中信重工产生的自由现金流实际上超过了息税前利润。当Daft Punk音乐会的节拍下降时,这种强劲的现金转换让我们和观众一样兴奋。

Our View

我们的观点

The good news is that CITIC Heavy Industries's demonstrated ability to cover its interest expense with its EBIT delights us like a fluffy puppy does a toddler. And that's just the beginning of the good news since its conversion of EBIT to free cash flow is also very heartening. Taking all this data into account, it seems to us that CITIC Heavy Industries takes a pretty sensible approach to debt. While that brings some risk, it can also enhance returns for shareholders. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. Be aware that CITIC Heavy Industries is showing 3 warning signs in our investment analysis , you should know about...

好消息是,中信重工表现出的用息税前利润支付利息支出的能力使我们感到高兴,就像毛茸茸的小狗对待幼儿一样。这仅仅是好消息的开始,因为将息税前利润转换为自由现金流也非常令人鼓舞。考虑到所有这些数据,在我们看来,中信重工对债务采取了相当明智的态度。尽管这带来了一些风险,但也可以提高股东的回报。资产负债表显然是分析债务时需要关注的领域。但归根结底,每家公司都可以控制资产负债表之外存在的风险。请注意,中信重工在我们的投资分析中显示出3个警告信号,您应该知道...

If you're interested in investing in businesses that can grow profits without the burden of debt, then check out this free list of growing businesses that have net cash on the balance sheet.

如果你有兴趣投资能够在没有债务负担的情况下增加利润的企业,请查看这份资产负债表上有净现金的成长型企业的免费清单。

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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Simply Wall St的这篇文章本质上是笼统的。我们仅使用公正的方法根据历史数据和分析师的预测提供评论,我们的文章无意作为财务建议。它不构成买入或卖出任何股票的建议,也没有考虑到您的目标或财务状况。我们的目标是为您提供由基本数据驱动的长期重点分析。请注意,我们的分析可能不考虑最新的价格敏感型公司公告或定性材料。简而言之,华尔街没有持有任何上述股票的头寸。

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com

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声明:本内容仅用作提供资讯及教育之目的,不构成对任何特定投资或投资策略的推荐或认可。 更多信息
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