The regional oil and gas sector was anticipated to remain robust, with expectations of stable oil prices, according to a report by RHB Investment Bank (RHB).
The bank maintained its OVERWEIGHT rating for the sector, citing a favourable outlook for upstream exposure and international diversification. The bank's top picks included Dialog and Dayang Enterprise (DEHB) in Malaysia, PTT Exploration & Production (PTTEP) in Thailand, and Elnusa (ELSA) in Indonesia.
RHB's forecast for Brent crude oil prices remained unchanged at USD88, USD83, and USD80 per barrel for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively. The positive economic recovery momentum in key markets such as the US, China, and selected ASEAN economies supported this outlook. OPEC+ compliance was good at 105% in June 2024, with the cartel producing 5% less than required, leading to a theoretical supply deficit of 0.9mbpd in 2024F and 0.3mbpd in 2025F.
In Malaysia, RHB highlighted potential capex cuts by Petronas due to Petronas taking over the buying and selling of natural gas in Sarawak. Starting in the second half of 2024, this transition might impact Petronas's earnings and its ability to spend, despite commitments to pay sizeable dividends to the Federal Government. However, RHB expected a resolution that would not jeopardise existing productions or future domestic investments.
For Indonesia and Thailand, RHB expected higher oil prices of USD90 per barrel in the second half of 2024. ELSA was well-positioned amidst rising exploration activity in Indonesia and higher petroleum demand, with an undemanding valuation of 0.7x P/BV and a decent ROE and earnings growth. PTTEP remained the preferred pick in Thailand, with a strong medium-term outlook and a projected 5% CAGR in sales volume from 2024 to 2028.
RHB's recommendation for investors was clear: consider stocks with upstream exposure and international diversification, particularly Dialog, Dayang Enterprise, PTTEP, and Elnusa. These companies were well-positioned to benefit from the stable oil prices and growing global demand for oil and gas.
根据RHB Investment Bank (RHB)的一份报告，由于预期油价将保持稳定，该地区的石油和天然气行业预计将继续保持强劲发展势头。
该银行维持该行业的增持评级，理由是上游风险敞口和国际多元化前景乐观。该银行的首选包括马来西亚的Dialog和Dayang Enterprise（DEHB）、泰国的PtT勘探与生产（PTTEP）和印度尼西亚的Elnusa（ELSA）。
RHB对布伦特原油价格的预测在2024年、2025年和2026年分别维持在每桶 USD88、USD83 和 USD80 不变。美国、中国和部分东盟经济体等主要市场的积极经济复苏势头支持了这一前景。2024年6月，欧佩克+的合规率为105％，该卡特尔的产量比要求低5％，导致2024财年理论供应赤字为0.9百万桶/日，2025财年为0.3百万桶/日。
在马来西亚，RhB强调了国油可能削减资本支出，因为国油接管了砂拉越天然气的买入和卖出。尽管承诺向联邦政府支付可观的股息，但从2024年下半年开始，这种过渡可能会影响国油的收益及其支出能力。但是，RhB预计一项不会危及现有生产或未来国内投资的决议。
对于印度尼西亚和泰国，卢旺达央行预计，2024年下半年油价将上涨至每桶 USD90。在印度尼西亚勘探活动不断增加和石油需求增加的情况下，ELSA处于有利地位，估值不高，市盈率为0.7倍，投资回报率和收益增长良好。PTTEP仍然是泰国的首选，其中期前景强劲，预计从2024年到2028年，销售量的复合年增长率为5％。
兴业银行对投资者的建议很明确：考虑具有上游风险敞口和国际分散投资的股票，尤其是Dialog、大洋企业、PTTEP和Elnusa。这些公司完全有能力从稳定的油价和不断增长的全球石油和天然气需求中受益。
