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Ryanair Expects 8% Traffic Growth In 2025, Pending Boeing Deliveries; Unit Costs To Increase Modestly; Q2 Fares To Drop Significantly Compared To Last Summer

Ryanair Expects 8% Traffic Growth In 2025, Pending Boeing Deliveries; Unit Costs To Increase Modestly; Q2 Fares To Drop Significantly Compared To Last Summer

Ryanair预计到2025年交付波音之前交通量将增长8%;单位成本将稍有增加;与去年夏季相比,Q2机票价格将大幅下降。
Benzinga ·  05:29

OUTLOOK:

展望:

FY25 traffic is expected to grow 8% (198m to 200m passengers), subject to no worsening Boeing delivery delays. As previously guided, we expect unit costs to rise modestly this year as ex-fuel costs (incl. pay & productivity increases, higher handling & ATC fees and the impact of multiple B737 delivery delays) are substantially offset by our fuel hedge savings, and rising net interest income, which widen Ryanair's cost advantage over its competitors. While Q2 demand is strong, pricing remains softer than we expected, and we now expect Q2 fares to be materially lower than last summer (previously expected to be flat to modestly up). The final H1 outcome is, however, totally dependent on close-in bookings and yields in Aug. and Sept. As is normal at this time of year, we have almost zero Q3 and Q4 visibility, although Q4 will not benefit from last year's early Easter. It is too early to provide meaningful FY25 PAT guidance, although we hope to be able to do so at our H1 results in Nov. The final FY25 outcome remains subject to avoiding adverse developments during FY25 (especially given continuing conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, repeated ATC short-staffing and capacity restrictions, or further Boeing delivery delays)."

预计 FY25 航班客流量将增长8%(从19800万人次到20000万人次),前提是波音的交付延误不会恶化。如之前所述,我们预计今年除燃油成本外(包括支付和生产力成本的增加、更高的处理和空中交通费用以及多次 B737 的交付延迟等)的其他成本将有所上涨。这些上涨的成本会被我们节省的燃油保值和不断增加的净利息收入所大幅抵消,从而扩大了 Ryanair 的成本优势。Q2 的需求很强,但定价仍低于我们的预期,我们现在预计 Q2 的票价将比去年夏季大幅下降(之前预计为平稳或略有上涨)。然而,H1 的最终结果完全取决于八月和九月封关时的实际预订情况和收益情况。通常这个时期,我们几乎没有 Q3 和 Q4 的任何了解,尽管去年的早复活节对 Q4 没有好处。现在提供 FY25 PAt 的有意义的指导还为时过早,但我们希望能在11月份的 H1 成果发布时能够提供这种指导。然而,最终 FY25 的结果仍受制于 FY25 期间的不良发展(尤其是乌克兰和中东的持续冲突、交通管制短缺和容量限制以及更多的波音交付延迟等)。

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