Investors Anticipate Unraveling Of 'Trump Trade' As Biden Exits Presidential Race, But Analyst Says 'It's A Bit Too Early For The Markets To Declare Victory For Trump'
Investors Anticipate Unraveling Of 'Trump Trade' As Biden Exits Presidential Race, But Analyst Says 'It's A Bit Too Early For The Markets To Declare Victory For Trump'
The 2024 presidential race has taken a dramatic turn with President Joe Biden's decision to step down, leading to potential changes in market strategies known as the 'Trump trade'.
2024年总统竞选因拜登总统决定下台而出现戏剧性转折，可能导致“特朗普交易”策略的改变。
What Happened: Biden's withdrawal and endorsement of Vice President Kamala Harris have stirred speculation about the future of the "Trump trade," CNBC reported on Monday. This term refers to market strategies banking on stocks that would likely benefit from a potential return of former President Donald Trump to the White House.
拜登退出比赛，并支持副总统哈里斯，这已经引起了对“特朗普交易”的猜测，CNBC周一报道。这个术语是指市场策略，即押注那些可能从特朗普重返白宫中受益的股票。
Previously, markets had factored in another term for the Republican challenger, following Biden's concerning debate performance and an assassination attempt on Trump. However, Biden's withdrawal has introduced a new level of uncertainty into the election, causing traders to reassess their positions.
此前，市场预计共和党挑战者将连任一届，因为拜登在辩论中表现堪忧，又有特朗普遇刺的事件。然而，拜登退出比赛引入了一种新的不确定性，迫使交易员重新评估他们的立场。
Michael Brown, a senior research strategist at Australia-based broker Pepperstone, predicts that the U.S. dollar would soften as the "Trump trade" unwinds. He added that Biden's exit has increased the prospect of a Democratic victory marginally.
澳大利亚券商Pepperstone的高级研究策略师迈克尔·布朗预测，随着“特朗普交易”解除，美元将会走软。他补充说，拜登退出比赛在一定程度上增加了民主党胜利的可能性。
Brown anticipates that stocks may decline in the short term, but views any drops as medium-term buying opportunities. This outlook is supported by the expectation that the Federal Reserve will cut rates, alongside resilient economic and earnings growth.
布朗预计股票短期内可能会下跌，但认为任何下跌都是中期买入机会。这一观点得到了对美联储将降息以及经济和收益增长持续的预期的支持。
Charles Myers, founder and CEO of advisory firm Signum Global Policy, also added that the "Trump trade" is at risk in the short term, adding that Harris will give a befitting competition to Trump.
顾问公司Signum Global Policy的创始人兼CEO查尔斯·迈尔斯也表示，“特朗普交易”在短期内面临风险，并补充说，哈里斯将会给特朗普带来合适的竞争。
"I think that it's a bit too early for the markets to declare victory for Trump, and I think she's going to give him a real run for his money," Myers said.
“我认为现在市场还为时过早地宣布特朗普胜利，我认为她会让他付出真正的代价，”迈尔斯说。
Why It Matters: The decision, though not entirely unforeseen, has ignited the stock market. Recent polls had shown a widening lead for Trump over Biden, following a lackluster debate performance, a failed assassination attempt on Trump, and the Republican convention.
为什么它很重要：这个决定虽然并非完全意料之外，但已经点燃了股市。最新的民调显示，在一次乏味的辩论、特朗普遇刺事件和共和党大会后，特朗普在民调中的领先优势正在扩大。
Renowned economist Mohamed El-Erian expressed that opinions are likely to vary on how the news will influence U.S. stock futures. Some may perceive this as an indication of greater policy uncertainty post the November elections, while others might believe that the markets have already factored in the news.
著名经济学家莫哈迪德·埃尔－埃里安表示，人们对这条新闻将如何影响美国股票期货的观点可能会有所不同。一些人可能认为这是11月选举后政策不确定性的迹象，而其他人可能认为市场已经在考虑了这一点。
Meanwhile, a snap poll conducted shortly after Biden's announcement showed a majority of Americans approved of the decision. The survey showed that 71% percent of the Americans surveyed said they either strongly approved or somewhat approved of Biden's withdrawal.
与此同时，在拜登宣布决定后不久进行的一项快速民意调查显示，大多数美国人赞成这一决定。该调查显示，在接受采访的美国人中，71%的人表示他们强烈赞成或有点赞成拜登退出比赛。