Is Xiamen C&D (SHSE:600153) Using Too Much Debt?
Is Xiamen C&D (SHSE:600153) Using Too Much Debt?
The external fund manager backed by Berkshire Hathaway's Charlie Munger, Li Lu, makes no bones about it when he says 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' So it seems the smart money knows that debt - which is usually involved in bankruptcies - is a very important factor, when you assess how risky a company is. Importantly, Xiamen C&D Inc. (SHSE:600153) does carry debt. But the real question is whether this debt is making the company risky.
伯克希尔哈撒韦公司的Charlie Munger支持的外部基金经理Li Lu毫不掩饰地说:“最大的投资风险不是价格的波动,而是你是否会遭受资本的永久损失。” 因此,明智的投资者知道债务(通常与破产有关)是衡量公司风险的一个非常重要的因素。重要的是,厦门建发股份有限公司(SHSE:600153)确实有债务。但真正的问题是这些债务是否会使公司变得风险更高。
What Risk Does Debt Bring?
债务带来了什么风险?
Debt is a tool to help businesses grow, but if a business is incapable of paying off its lenders, then it exists at their mercy. Ultimately, if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt, shareholders could walk away with nothing. However, a more frequent (but still costly) occurrence is where a company must issue shares at bargain-basement prices, permanently diluting shareholders, just to shore up its balance sheet. Having said that, the most common situation is where a company manages its debt reasonably well - and to its own advantage. When we think about a company's use of debt, we first look at cash and debt together.
债务是帮助企业成长的工具,但如果企业无法偿还债权人,那么它就会处于债权人的控制下。如果公司无法满足偿还债务的法律义务,股东可能会一无所有。然而,更频繁的(但仍然代价高昂)情况是,公司必须以低于市场价的价格发行股票,永久性地稀释股东的权益,以维持其资产负债表。尽管如此,最常见的情况是公司合理地管理其债务 - 并以自己的利益为基础。当我们考虑公司的债务使用时,首先将现金和债务放在一起。
What Is Xiamen C&D's Debt?
厦门建发的债务是什么?
The image below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that at March 2024 Xiamen C&D had debt of CN¥184.7b, up from CN¥151.4b in one year. However, because it has a cash reserve of CN¥104.0b, its net debt is less, at about CN¥80.8b.
以下图像显示了厦门建发在2024年3月的债务达到了1847亿,高于一年前的1514亿。然而,由于其有1040亿现金储备,其净债务较少,约为808亿。
![big](https://usnewsfile.moomoo.com/public/MM-PersistNewsContentImage/7781/20240724/0-a12867ef19d76ce4ce9bffef706ca1d5-0-2ab23ac4f410deded020c1d510dd6451.png/big)
How Healthy Is Xiamen C&D's Balance Sheet?
厦门建发的资产负债表健康状况如何?
According to the last reported balance sheet, Xiamen C&D had liabilities of CN¥519.9b due within 12 months, and liabilities of CN¥144.2b due beyond 12 months. Offsetting these obligations, it had cash of CN¥104.0b as well as receivables valued at CN¥100.2b due within 12 months. So its liabilities outweigh the sum of its cash and (near-term) receivables by CN¥459.9b.
根据最近披露的资产负债表,厦门建发的12个月内到期的负债为5199亿人民币,超过12个月到期的负债为1442亿人民币。抵销这些债务的是它有1040亿人民币现金存款以及1002亿人民币的应收账款。因此,其负债超过其现金和(短期)应收账款的总和4599亿元人民币。这个缺陷使得这家235亿元人民币的公司非常吃力,就像一个孩子背着一大堆书,运动装备和小号一样。因此,我们毫不怀疑会密切关注其资产负债表。归根结底,如果其债权人要求偿还,厦门建发可能需要进行大规模的再资本化。
The deficiency here weighs heavily on the CN¥23.5b company itself, as if a child were struggling under the weight of an enormous back-pack full of books, his sports gear, and a trumpet. So we'd watch its balance sheet closely, without a doubt. At the end of the day, Xiamen C&D would probably need a major re-capitalization if its creditors were to demand repayment.
恰好厦门建发的净债务/ EBITDA比率为5.9但利息覆盖率非常强,为11.5。这意味着,除非该公司能够获得非常便宜的债务,否则利息支出将可能在未来增长。厦门建发在去年的EBIt增长6.3%。虽然远非不可思议,但在偿还债务方面还是一件好事。当你分析债务时,资产负债表显然是要关注的领域。但最重要的是未来的收入,这将决定厦门建发在未来能否保持健康的资产负债表。因此,如果您想知道专业人士的看法,您可能会发现这份关于分析师利润预测的免费报告有趣。
We use two main ratios to inform us about debt levels relative to earnings. The first is net debt divided by earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA), while the second is how many times its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) covers its interest expense (or its interest cover, for short). The advantage of this approach is that we take into account both the absolute quantum of debt (with net debt to EBITDA) and the actual interest expenses associated with that debt (with its interest cover ratio).
BJ批发俱乐部控股公司的净债务只有EBITDA的0.62倍。而其EBIT轻松覆盖其利息费用,比例为12.6倍。因此,我们对其超级保守的债务使用感到相当放心。虽然BJ批发俱乐部控股公司在EBIT方面没有取得太多进展,但至少其盈利保持稳定。当分析债务水平时,资产负债表是显然的切入点。但归根结底,企业未来的盈利能力将决定BJ批发俱乐部控股公司能否随着时间的推移加强资产负债表。因此,如果你要关注未来,可以查看一下这份免费的分析报告,了解分析师的盈利预测。
As it happens Xiamen C&D has a fairly concerning net debt to EBITDA ratio of 5.9 but very strong interest coverage of 11.5. This means that unless the company has access to very cheap debt, that interest expense will likely grow in the future. Xiamen C&D grew its EBIT by 6.3% in the last year. That's far from incredible but it is a good thing, when it comes to paying off debt. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine Xiamen C&D's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.
最后,在还债时,一家公司需要有自由现金流;会计利润并不能解决问题。因此,检查有多少EBIt由自由现金流支持是值得的。在过去三年中,厦门建发记录下了高达85%的EBIt的自由现金流,这比我们通常期望的要强。如果需要的话,这使它有能力偿还债务。
Finally, a business needs free cash flow to pay off debt; accounting profits just don't cut it. So it's worth checking how much of that EBIT is backed by free cash flow. Over the last three years, Xiamen C&D recorded free cash flow worth a fulsome 85% of its EBIT, which is stronger than we'd usually expect. That positions it well to pay down debt if desirable to do so.
虽然厦门建发的总负债水平让我们感到紧张,但它对股本收益与利息覆盖的转换让我们对其管理债务的能力有些信心。当我们考虑所有讨论的因素时,我们认为厦门建发在使用债务时存在一些风险。虽然债务可以提高收益,但我们认为公司现在已经具有足够的杠杆作用。当你分析债务时,负债表显然是要关注的领域。但最终,每个公司都可能存在超出负债表范围之外的风险。因此,你应该了解我们发现的厦门建发的3个警告信号(包括1个我们不太满意的)。
Our View
我们的观点
While Xiamen C&D's level of total liabilities has us nervous. For example, its conversion of EBIT to free cash flow and interest cover give us some confidence in its ability to manage its debt. When we consider all the factors discussed, it seems to us that Xiamen C&D is taking some risks with its use of debt. While that debt can boost returns, we think the company has enough leverage now. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. To that end, you should learn about the 3 warning signs we've spotted with Xiamen C&D (including 1 which doesn't sit too well with us) .
厦门建发的总负债水平让我们感到紧张。虽然债务可以提高收益,但我们认为公司现在已经具有足够的杠杆作用。当你分析债务时,负债表显然是要关注的领域。但是,最终,每个公司都可能存在负债表之外的风险。因此,你应该学习一下我们发现的厦门建发的3个警告信号(包括1个我们不太满意的)。
If you're interested in investing in businesses that can grow profits without the burden of debt, then check out this free list of growing businesses that have net cash on the balance sheet.
如果您有兴趣投资能够在不负债的情况下增长利润的企业,请查看这份免费列表,其中列出了在资产负债表上拥有净现金的成长型企业。
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Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com
对本文有任何反馈?对内容有任何疑虑?请直接与我们联系。或者,发送电子邮件至editorial-team@simplywallst.com。