Upcoming CPI Could Better Capture Diesel Impact: CGS
Upcoming CPI Could Better Capture Diesel Impact: CGS
Inflation in Malaysia remained steady in June 2024, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) maintaining a year-on-year increase of 2.0%, consistent with the previous month and slightly below market expectations. Core inflation, which excludes volatile items such as food and energy, also held firm at 1.9% year-on-year.
2024年6月,马来西亚通货膨胀率保持稳定,消费者价格指数 (CPI) 同比增长 2.0%,与上个月持平,略低于市场预期。核心通胀率,即排除食品和能源等易受波动影响的物品,同样保持在1.9%的同比水平。
CGS International (CGS), said in its Economics Note today, the recent revision in diesel prices, implemented on June 10, 2024, saw prices surge from RM2.15/litre to RM3.35/litre as part of the government's subsidy rationalisation efforts.
中国银河(CGS)在其今日的《经济笔记》中表示,2024年6月10日执行的柴油价格最近修订使价格从RM2.15/升涨至RM3.35/升,这是政府补贴理性化努力的一部分。
This significant increase in diesel costs has begun to manifest in the CPI, particularly evident in the transport sector, which recorded a month-on-month increase of 0.5% in June. Diesel constitutes 0.2% of the CPI basket.
柴油成本的显著增加已经开始在CPI中产生影响,尤其是明显在交通板块中,6月份环比增长了0.5%。柴油在CPI篮子中占0.2%。
"Despite the immediate impact on transport costs, the broader effects on related sectors like transport services and food prices have yet to fully materialise, CGS said.
CGS表示:“尽管对交通成本的立竿见影的影响,但有关行业(如交通服务和食品价格)的更广泛影响尚未完全显现”。
CGS suggests that the upcoming Producer Price Index (PPI) data, scheduled for release on July 29, may provide further insights into the extent of price pass-through from diesel costs to other components of the CPI.
CGS建议,即将发布的7月29日的生产者物价指数(PPI)数据可能会进一步阐明柴油成本对CPI中其他成分价格穿透程度的情况。
"Looking ahead, economists project a potentially higher CPI trend in the second half of 2024 as government subsidies continue to be phased out. Factors contributing to inflationary pressures include expected revisions in fuel prices for RON95 gasoline and ongoing adjustments in diesel costs. Additionally, robust macroeconomic indicators such as increased retail sales and consumption imports are anticipated to sustain these price pressures."
CGS表示:“展望未来,经济学家预计2024年下半年CPI趋势有可能更高,因为政府继续逐步削减补贴。促进通货膨胀压力的因素包括RON95汽油价格的预期修订,以及柴油成本的持续调整。此外,预计强劲的宏观经济指标,如零售销售和消费进口将维持这些价格压力。”
In terms of monetary policy, the Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) is expected to maintain the Overnight Policy Rate (OPR) at 3.00% through the end of 2024, barring significant shifts in inflationary trends or consumer spending. The central bank's cautious stance reflects a commitment to monitor economic reforms and their impact on inflation dynamics before considering any further adjustments to interest rates.
就货币政策而言,除非通胀趋势或消费支出发生重大变化,否则马来西亚银行(BNM)预计将保持隔夜拆放利率(OPR)在3.00%的水平上直到2024年底。央行的谨慎立场反映了在考虑进一步调整利率之前,对监测经济改革及其对通胀动态的影响的承诺。
Overall, while Malaysia's economy shows resilience amid evolving fuel price dynamics and consumption trends, stakeholders are advised to closely monitor upcoming CPI and PPI releases for clearer signals on inflationary trends and policy directions.
总的来说,虽然马来西亚经济表现出在油价和消费趋势不断变化的情况下所需的弹性,但利益相关者建议密切监视即将发布的CPI和PPI数据,以获取有关通货膨胀趋势和政策方向的更清晰信号。