Does The Market Have A Low Tolerance For Arrow Home Group Co., Ltd.'s (SZSE:001322) Mixed Fundamentals?
Does The Market Have A Low Tolerance For Arrow Home Group Co., Ltd.'s (SZSE:001322) Mixed Fundamentals?
Arrow Home Group (SZSE:001322) has had a rough three months with its share price down 24%. It is possible that the markets have ignored the company's differing financials and decided to lean-in to the negative sentiment. Fundamentals usually dictate market outcomes so it makes sense to study the company's financials. In this article, we decided to focus on Arrow Home Group's ROE.
Arrow Home Group (SZSE:001322) 的股价在过去三个月中遭遇了24%的下跌。市场可能忽略了该公司的财务状况,并决定继续沉浸在负面情绪中。通常,基本面决定市场走势,因此研究公司的财务状况是有意义的。在本文中,我们决定重点关注 Arrow Home Group 的 ROE。
ROE or return on equity is a useful tool to assess how effectively a company can generate returns on the investment it received from its shareholders. Simply put, it is used to assess the profitability of a company in relation to its equity capital.
roe或股东权益回报率是评估公司如何有效地从股东那里获得回报的有用工具。简而言之,它用于评估公司相对于其权益资本的盈利能力。
How To Calculate Return On Equity?
如何计算股东权益报酬率?
The formula for ROE is:
roe的公式是:
Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity
净资产收益率 = 净利润(从持续经营中获得)÷ 股东权益
So, based on the above formula, the ROE for Arrow Home Group is:
因此,根据以上公式,Arrow Home Group 的 ROE 为:
6.7% = CN¥330m ÷ CN¥4.9b (Based on the trailing twelve months to March 2024).
6.7% = CN¥33000万 ÷ CN¥49亿(基于截至2024年3月的过去12个月)。
The 'return' is the profit over the last twelve months. So, this means that for every CN¥1 of its shareholder's investments, the company generates a profit of CN¥0.07.
“回报”是过去十二个月的利润。因此,这意味着对于每1元人民币的股东投资,公司可以获得0.07元人民币的利润。
Why Is ROE Important For Earnings Growth?
ROE对于盈利增长的重要性是什么?
So far, we've learned that ROE is a measure of a company's profitability. Depending on how much of these profits the company reinvests or "retains", and how effectively it does so, we are then able to assess a company's earnings growth potential. Assuming all else is equal, companies that have both a higher return on equity and higher profit retention are usually the ones that have a higher growth rate when compared to companies that don't have the same features.
到目前为止,我们已经了解到 ROE 是衡量公司盈利能力的指标。根据公司再投资或“保留”的这些利润的数量以及其有效性,我们可以评估公司的盈利增长潜力。假设其他都相同,ROE 和利润保留较高的公司通常具有更高的增长率,与那些没有这些特点的公司相比。
Arrow Home Group's Earnings Growth And 6.7% ROE
Arrow Home Group 的盈利增长和6.7%的ROE
When you first look at it, Arrow Home Group's ROE doesn't look that attractive. However, given that the company's ROE is similar to the average industry ROE of 8.3%, we may spare it some thought. But then again, Arrow Home Group's five year net income shrunk at a rate of 8.5%. Remember, the company's ROE is a bit low to begin with. So that's what might be causing earnings growth to shrink.
当你首次看到时,Arrow Home Group 的 ROE 看起来并不那么吸引人。然而,考虑到公司的 ROE 与行业平均 ROE 相似(8.3%),我们可以想想。但另一方面,Arrow Home Group 的五年净利润以8.5%的速度下降。请记住,该公司的 ROE 起点有点低,这可能导致收益增长收窄。
However, when we compared Arrow Home Group's growth with the industry we found that while the company's earnings have been shrinking, the industry has seen an earnings growth of 4.2% in the same period. This is quite worrisome.
但是,当我们将 Arrow Home Group 的增长与行业进行比较时,我们发现,尽管该公司的收益一直在下降,但该行业在同一时期内的收益增长率为4.2%。这是非常令人担忧的。
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The basis for attaching value to a company is, to a great extent, tied to its earnings growth. The investor should try to establish if the expected growth or decline in earnings, whichever the case may be, is priced in. By doing so, they will have an idea if the stock is headed into clear blue waters or if swampy waters await. Is Arrow Home Group fairly valued compared to other companies? These 3 valuation measures might help you decide.
为公司附加价值的基础在很大程度上与其盈利增长有关。投资者应该尝试确定预期的盈利增长或下降是否已定价。通过这样做,他们将知道该股票是否即将进入清澈的蓝水,还是是否需要面对腐臭的泥潭。和其他公司相比,Arrow Home Group 是否被公平价值化?这3个估值指标可能会帮助您决定。
Is Arrow Home Group Making Efficient Use Of Its Profits?
Arrow Home Group 是否有效利用其利润?
Looking at its three-year median payout ratio of 34% (or a retention ratio of 66%) which is pretty normal, Arrow Home Group's declining earnings is rather baffling as one would expect to see a fair bit of growth when a company is retaining a good portion of its profits. So there could be some other explanations in that regard. For instance, the company's business may be deteriorating.
看看其三年的平均派息比率为34%(或留存比率为66%),这是相当正常的。 Arrow Home Group 的盈利下滑相当令人困惑,因为当公司保留大部分利润时,人们期望看到相当多的增长。因此,可能会有一些其他解释。例如,公司的业务可能在恶化。
In addition, Arrow Home Group only recently started paying a dividend so the management probably decided the shareholders prefer dividends even though earnings have been shrinking. Existing analyst estimates suggest that the company's future payout ratio is expected to drop to 25% over the next three years. The fact that the company's ROE is expected to rise to 10% over the same period is explained by the drop in the payout ratio.
此外,Arrow Home Group 只是最近开始支付股息,因此管理层可能决定股东更喜欢股息,尽管收益一直在下降。现有的分析师预测表明,公司未来的派息比率预计将在未来三年内降至25%。该公司的 ROE 预计在同期内上升到10%,这可以通过派息比率的下降来解释。
Conclusion
结论
On the whole, we feel that the performance shown by Arrow Home Group can be open to many interpretations. While the company does have a high rate of reinvestment, the low ROE means that all that reinvestment is not reaping any benefit to its investors, and moreover, its having a negative impact on the earnings growth. With that said, we studied the latest analyst forecasts and found that while the company has shrunk its earnings in the past, analysts expect its earnings to grow in the future. Are these analysts expectations based on the broad expectations for the industry, or on the company's fundamentals? Click here to be taken to our analyst's forecasts page for the company.
总体而言,我们认为 Arrow Home Group 的表现可以有很多解释。虽然该公司具有较高的再投资率,但低的 ROE 意味着所有这些再投资对其投资者并没有任何好处,而且对盈利增长产生了负面影响。话虽这样,我们研究了最新的分析师预测,发现尽管该公司过去曾收缩其盈利,但分析师预计其未来的盈利将增长。这些分析师的预期是基于行业的普遍预期,还是基于公司基本面?单击此处以访问我们的分析师预测页面。
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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这篇文章是Simply Wall St的一般性文章。我们根据历史数据和分析师预测提供评论,只使用公正的方法论,我们的文章并不意味着提供任何金融建议。文章不构成买卖任何股票的建议,也不考虑您的目标或您的财务状况。我们的目标是带给您基本数据驱动的长期关注分析。请注意,我们的分析可能不考虑最新的价格敏感公司公告或定性材料。Simply Wall St没有任何股票头寸。
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com
对本文有任何反馈?对内容有任何疑虑?请直接与我们联系。或者,发送电子邮件至editorial-team@simplywallst.com。