Fed's Favorite Inflation Gauge Set To Drop To Lowest Level In Over 3 Years: Is July Rate Cut Possible?
Fed's Favorite Inflation Gauge Set To Drop To Lowest Level In Over 3 Years: Is July Rate Cut Possible?
Investors are eagerly awaiting Friday's announcement of the Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) price index, known as the Fed's preferred inflation measure, as it could reinforce expectations of Fed rate cuts and provide relief to risky assets after this week's sharp declines.
投资者们急切地等待着周五的个人消费支出(PCE)价格指数的公布,它被认为是美联储首选的通胀测量指标,因为它可以加强市场对美联储降息的预期,并在本周的大幅下跌后为高风险资产提供缓解。
The Bureau of Economic Analysis is set to release key inflation data, along with figures on personal income and spending.
美国经济分析局将公布关键的通胀数据,以及关于个人收入和支出的数据。
The U.S. economy grew at an annualized rate of 2.8% in the second quarter, up from 1.4% and exceeding the 2% forecast, advance estimates revealed Thursday.
根据初步估计,美国经济增长率在第二季度按年率调整为2.8%,高于1.4%的预测和2%的预测。
Notably, the PCE price index indicated a 2.6% annualized growth for the quarter, down from 3.4%, suggesting easing inflation pressures.
值得注意的是,PCE价格指数显示该季度按年率增长2.6%,低于3.4%,表明通胀压力有所减缓。
Markets fully price in a September rate cut by the Federal Reserve. Market-implied odds for next week's meeting show a 93% chance of no change in interest rates.
市场已经完全定价了美联储在9月份的利率降低。下周会议的市场隐含概率显示利率不变的概率为93%。
It's highly unlikely the Fed will lower interest rates this month, even in the case of a cooler PCE data, as policymakers seek more confidence and time to reach the 2% target.
即使出现更为温和的PCE数据,美联储本月也极不可能降息,因为政策制定者需要更多信心和时间来达到2%的目标。
June PCE Report: What Do Economists Expect
6月PCE报告:经济学家们有何预期
- The headline PCE is expected to decrease from 2.6% year-over-year in May 2024 to 2.5% in June, marking its lowest point since February 2021, a level also previously seen in January and February 2024.
- On a monthly basis, the PCE price index is projected to rise by 0.1%, following a previous flat reading.
- The Core PCE is anticipated to decline from 2.6% year-over-year in May 2024 to 2.5% in June, reaching its lowest point since March 2021.
- On a monthly basis, the core PCE price index is expected to increase by 0.1%, consistent with the previous month's reading.
- 据预计,总体PCE从2024年5月的同比增长2.6%下降到今年6月的2.5%,这是自2021年2月以来的最低点,此前也曾在2024年1月和2月出现。
- 按月度计算,PCE物价指数预计将上涨0.1%,而之前则保持不变。
- 核心PCE预计将从2024年5月的同比增长2.6%下降到今年6月的2.5%,达到自2021年3月以来的最低点。
- 按月度计算,核心PCE物价指数预计将上涨0.1%,与上个月的数据相一致。
How Did Markets React To The Prior PCE Report?
市场对上一份PCE报告的反应如何?
The cooler-than-expected May PCE report, released on June 28, triggered mixed market reactions, with both large-cap stocks and bonds falling during the session.
6月28日发布的PCE报告,表现未达预期,市场反应出现分化,大盘股和债券在该交易日都下跌。
The S&P 500, as tracked by the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY), fell 0.4%, while the tech-heavy Invesco QQQ Trust (NASDAQ:QQQ), slipped 0.5%.
标普500指数在SPDR标普500 ETF信托(纽交所代码:SPY)跟踪下跌了0.4%,而科技股为主的纳斯达克100指数ETF-Invesco QQQ Trust(纳斯达克代码:QQQ)则下跌了0.5%。
Small caps outperformed large-cap stocks, with the iShares Russell 2000 ETF (NYSE:IWM) closing 0.4% higher.
小盘股表现优于大盘股,而iShares Russell 2000 ETF(纽交所代码:IWM)上涨了0.4%。
Bonds tumbled, with the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:TLT), falling 1.9%.
债券暴跌,iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF(纳斯达克代码:TLT)下跌了1.9%。
U.S. major averages are down this week, with the Nasdaq 100 recording the worst session since December 2022 on Wednesday.
本周,美国股市主要指数下跌,纳斯达克100指数自2022年12月以来出现最糟糕的一次交易。
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Photo: shutterstock