Here's Why Guangxi Energy (SHSE:600310) Is Weighed Down By Its Debt Load
Here's Why Guangxi Energy (SHSE:600310) Is Weighed Down By Its Debt Load
Legendary fund manager Li Lu (who Charlie Munger backed) once said, 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' When we think about how risky a company is, we always like to look at its use of debt, since debt overload can lead to ruin. Importantly, Guangxi Energy Co., Ltd. (SHSE:600310) does carry debt. But should shareholders be worried about its use of debt?
李璐(Charlie Munger支持的)传奇基金经理曾经说过,“最大的投资风险不是价格的波动,而是您是否会遭受永久性资本损失。当我们考虑一家公司的风险时,我们总是喜欢查看它的债务使用情况,因为债务过载可能导致破产。重要的是,广西能源股份有限公司(SHSE:600310)确实负债。但是股东们应该担心它的债务使用吗?
When Is Debt A Problem?
什么时候负债才是一个问题?
Debt assists a business until the business has trouble paying it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. In the worst case scenario, a company can go bankrupt if it cannot pay its creditors. However, a more common (but still painful) scenario is that it has to raise new equity capital at a low price, thus permanently diluting shareholders. By replacing dilution, though, debt can be an extremely good tool for businesses that need capital to invest in growth at high rates of return. The first thing to do when considering how much debt a business uses is to look at its cash and debt together.
债务在业务具有流动性现金流之前起到帮助业务的作用。最糟糕的情况是,如果公司无法偿还债权人,公司可能会破产。然而,更常见的(但仍然痛苦的)情况是,公司需要以低价募集新股本,从而永久地稀释股东的权益。通过取代稀释,债务可以成为需要以高回报率投资增长的企业的极好工具。在考虑企业使用多少债务时,首先要做的是查看其现金和债务的总和。
What Is Guangxi Energy's Net Debt?
广西能源的净债务是多少?
As you can see below, Guangxi Energy had CN¥11.5b of debt, at March 2024, which is about the same as the year before. You can click the chart for greater detail. On the flip side, it has CN¥1.90b in cash leading to net debt of about CN¥9.64b.
正如下面所示,截至2024年3月,广西能源的债务总额为115亿元人民币,几乎与前一年相同。您可以单击图表以获得更详细的信息。另一方面,它的现金为19亿元人民币,导致净债务约为96.4亿元人民币。
![big](https://usnewsfile.moomoo.com/public/MM-PersistNewsContentImage/7781/20240726/0-4a67a0196b11f9801ee11e69decea3fc-0-7e2f320d69d4d8df162dd70b5dc1af0c.png/big)
How Healthy Is Guangxi Energy's Balance Sheet?
广西能源的资产负债表状况如何?
Zooming in on the latest balance sheet data, we can see that Guangxi Energy had liabilities of CN¥6.85b due within 12 months and liabilities of CN¥7.96b due beyond that. On the other hand, it had cash of CN¥1.90b and CN¥959.7m worth of receivables due within a year. So its liabilities total CN¥11.9b more than the combination of its cash and short-term receivables.
放大最新的资产负债表数据,我们可以看到广西能源有685亿元人民币的负债到期在12个月内,796亿元人民币的负债到期超过12个月。另一方面,它有19亿元人民币现金和959.7万元应收款项,到期在一年内。因此,它的负债总额比现金和短期应收款项的总和多了119亿元人民币。
This deficit casts a shadow over the CN¥5.83b company, like a colossus towering over mere mortals. So we definitely think shareholders need to watch this one closely. After all, Guangxi Energy would likely require a major re-capitalisation if it had to pay its creditors today.
这个缺口在这家583亿元人民币的公司身上投下了一片阴影,就像一个高耸的巨人凌驾于寻常老百姓之上。因此,我们绝对认为股东们需要密切关注这个问题。毕竟,如果广西能源今天必须偿付其债权人,它可能需要进行重大的再资本化。
In order to size up a company's debt relative to its earnings, we calculate its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) divided by its interest expense (its interest cover). This way, we consider both the absolute quantum of the debt, as well as the interest rates paid on it.
为了比较一个公司的债务与其收益的关系,我们计算其净债务除以利息、税、折旧和摊销前的收益和利息前的收益(其利息覆盖率)。因此,我们考虑了债务的绝对数量以及支付的利率。
Weak interest cover of 0.93 times and a disturbingly high net debt to EBITDA ratio of 9.6 hit our confidence in Guangxi Energy like a one-two punch to the gut. The debt burden here is substantial. The good news is that Guangxi Energy improved its EBIT by 7.6% over the last twelve months, thus gradually reducing its debt levels relative to its earnings. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine Guangxi Energy's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you're focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.
广西能源0.93倍的弱利息覆盖率和9.6倍的烦人的净债务与EBITDA比率打击了我们对广西能源的信心,就像肚子挨了拳击和摆拍一样。这里的债务负担相当大。好消息是,广西能源在过去12个月中提高了7.6%的EBIt,从而逐渐降低了相对于其收益的债务水平。在分析债务水平时,资产负债表是很明显的开始。但是未来的收益,比任何其他因素都要确定广西能源维持健康资产负债表的能力。因此,如果您专注于未来,可以查看此免费报告,显示分析师对利润的预测。
Finally, a business needs free cash flow to pay off debt; accounting profits just don't cut it. So the logical step is to look at the proportion of that EBIT that is matched by actual free cash flow. Considering the last three years, Guangxi Energy actually recorded a cash outflow, overall. Debt is usually more expensive, and almost always more risky in the hands of a company with negative free cash flow. Shareholders ought to hope for an improvement.
最后,企业需要自由现金流来偿还债务;会计利润无法解决这个问题。因此,逻辑的下一步是查看实际自由现金流匹配的EBIt的比例。考虑到过去三年,广西能源总体上实际现金流出。债务通常在负自由现金流的公司手中更昂贵,几乎总是更具风险。股东们应该希望有所改善。
Our View
我们的观点
To be frank both Guangxi Energy's interest cover and its track record of staying on top of its total liabilities make us rather uncomfortable with its debt levels. But on the bright side, its EBIT growth rate is a good sign, and makes us more optimistic. We should also note that Electric Utilities industry companies like Guangxi Energy commonly do use debt without problems. After considering the datapoints discussed, we think Guangxi Energy has too much debt. That sort of riskiness is ok for some, but it certainly doesn't float our boat. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. These risks can be hard to spot. Every company has them, and we've spotted 3 warning signs for Guangxi Energy (of which 2 can't be ignored!) you should know about.
坦率地说,广西能源的利息覆盖率和掌控其总负债的记录令我们对其债务水平感到不安。但是从好的一面来看,它的EBIt增长率是一个好兆头,使我们更加乐观。我们还应该注意,像广西能源这样的公用事业公司通常会毫无问题地使用债务。在考虑了讨论过的数据点后,我们认为广西能源的债务过多。这种风险对某些人来说是可以接受的,但它确实不符合我们的口味。在分析债务水平时,资产负债表是很明显的出发点。但是,最终,每个公司都可能存在超出资产负债表范围的风险。这些风险很难发现。每个公司都有它们,我们已经发现了广西能源的三个警告信号(其中两个不能忽视!)的存在。您需要知道。
If you're interested in investing in businesses that can grow profits without the burden of debt, then check out this free list of growing businesses that have net cash on the balance sheet.
如果您有兴趣投资能够在不负债的情况下增长利润的企业,请查看这份免费列表,其中列出了在资产负债表上拥有净现金的成长型企业。
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
对本文有任何反馈?对内容有任何疑虑?请直接与我们联系。或者,发送电子邮件至editorial-team@simplywallst.com。
这篇文章是Simply Wall St的一般性文章。我们根据历史数据和分析师预测提供评论,只使用公正的方法论,我们的文章并不意味着提供任何金融建议。文章不构成买卖任何股票的建议,也不考虑您的目标或您的财务状况。我们的目标是带给您基本数据驱动的长期关注分析。请注意,我们的分析可能不考虑最新的价格敏感公司公告或定性材料。Simply Wall St没有任何股票头寸。
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com
对本文有任何反馈?对内容有任何疑虑?请直接与我们联系。或者,发送电子邮件至editorial-team@simplywallst.com。