Fed's Preferred Inflation Measure Shows Mixed Readings, Personal Income, Spending Fall: September Rate Cut Remains Likely
Fed's Preferred Inflation Measure Shows Mixed Readings, Personal Income, Spending Fall: September Rate Cut Remains Likely
The Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) price index continued to decline in June as economists anticipated, continuing to bolster the case for a Fed rate cut in September.
个人消费支出(PCE)价格指数在6月份继续下降，正如经济学家所预期的那样，这进一步支持在9月份进行美联储降息的情况。
The PCE — a basket of goods and services that most U.S. consumers buy, commonly referred to as the Fed's favorite inflation gauge — witnessed a 2.5% annual increase last month, down from a 2.6% surge in May. Yet when excluding energy and food items, the basket held steady from the previous month.
PCE是美国大多数消费者购买的商品和服务的篮子，也是美联储最喜欢的通货膨胀衡量标准，上个月 witnessed了一项2.5％的年度增长，较5月份的2.6％激增略有下降。但是，如果排除能源和食品项目，该篮子与上个月持平。
Concurrently, the pace of increase in personal income and spending fell more than expected, indicating signs of weakness in demand.
同时，在个人收入和支出的增长速度下降超过预期，表明需求疲软的迹象。
June PCE Inflation, Personal Income Reports: Key Highlights
6月PCE通胀和个人收入报告：重点亮点
- The PCE price index eased from 2.6% year-over-year in May to 2.5% in June. This annual PCE inflation rate was in line with the forecasted 2.5%, according to Tradingeconomics data.
- On a monthly basis, the PCE price index rose 0.1%, up from the previous unchanged reading, matching expectations.
- Excluding food and energy, the core PCE price index held steady at 2.6% year-over-year in June, missing expectations of a drop to 2.5%.
- On a monthly basis, the core PCE price index increased by 0.2%, increasing from 0.1% in May, and topping expectations.
- Personal income saw a 0.2% increase compared to May, down from the previous 0.4% month-over-month increase and below the estimated 0.4%.
- Personal spending rose by 0.3% compared to the previous month, also down from a 0.4% rate in May and missing the predicted 0.3% rise.
- PCE价格指数从5月份的同比2.6％下降到6月份的2.5％。根据Tradingeconomics数据，此年度PCE通胀率符合预测的2.5％。
- 按月计算，PCE价格指数上升0.1％，高于前一个不变的读数，并达到预期水平。
- 去除食品和能源，核心PCE价格指数在6月份年同比持平于2.6％，未达到2.5％的预期下降。
- 按月计算，核心PCE价格指数上升0.2％，高于5月份的0.1％，并超过预期。
- 个人收入较5月份增加了0.2％，低于上一个0.4％的月度增长和预期的0.4％。
- 个人支出与上个月相比上升了0.3％，也低于5月份的0.4％的比率，未达到预测的0.3％的增长。
Market Reactions
市场反应
Before the inflation report, traders anticipated a 100% chance of a September rate cut, according to CME Group's FedWatch tool.
在通货膨胀报告公布前，根据CME Group的FedWatch工具，交易商预计9月份会有100％的降息机会。
Between now and December, 64 basis points of rate cuts are priced in, suggesting at least one more rate reduction following the Fed's September meeting.
在现在和12月份之间，市场已定价64个基点的降息，这表明在美联储9月份会议后至少还有一次降息。
The inflation and personal income data caused Treasury yields to slightly decline Friday morning, with the rate-sensitive two-year yield dropping by 2 basis points to 4.41%.
通胀和个人收入数据导致国债收益率周五上午略有下降，利率敏感的2年期收益率下降2个基点至4.41％。
Equity futures rose during premarket trading, with S&P 500 contracts up 0.8% and Nasdaq 100 contracts rallying 1.1%.
股指期货在盘前交易中上涨，标普500指数合约上涨0.8％，纳斯达克100指数合约上涨1.1％。
On Thursday, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY) fell by 0.5%.
周四，SPDR标普500 ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY)下跌0.5％。
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