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Is NOV (NYSE:NOV) A Risky Investment?

Is NOV (NYSE:NOV) A Risky Investment?

纽交所:NOV是否是一项高风险的投资?
Simply Wall St ·  07/26 08:53

Warren Buffett famously said, 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' So it might be obvious that you need to consider debt, when you think about how risky any given stock is, because too much debt can sink a company. We note that NOV Inc. (NYSE:NOV) does have debt on its balance sheet. But should shareholders be worried about its use of debt?

沃伦·巴菲特曾经说过:“波动性远非风险的代名词。”因此,当考虑任何一只股票有多大的风险时,您需要考虑债务,因为过多的债务会使公司遭受重创。我们注意到华高公司(纽交所:NOV)确实在其资产负债表中有债务。但是,股东们是否应该担心其使用债务?

When Is Debt A Problem?

什么时候负债才是一个问题?

Generally speaking, debt only becomes a real problem when a company can't easily pay it off, either by raising capital or with its own cash flow. In the worst case scenario, a company can go bankrupt if it cannot pay its creditors. While that is not too common, we often do see indebted companies permanently diluting shareholders because lenders force them to raise capital at a distressed price. Of course, plenty of companies use debt to fund growth, without any negative consequences. When we think about a company's use of debt, we first look at cash and debt together.

一般而言,只有当公司无法通过筹集资本或借助自己的自由现金流轻松偿还债务时,债务才会成为真正的问题。在最坏的情况下,如果公司无法偿还其债权人,公司将会破产。尽管这种情况并不太常见,但我们经常看到负债公司因为贷款人以危机价格强制他们筹集资本而永久稀释股东的权益。当然,有很多公司使用债务来资助增长,而没有任何负面的后果。当我们考虑公司使用债务的情况时,我们首先看现金和债务的总体情况。

How Much Debt Does NOV Carry?

华高公司承担了多少债务?

As you can see below, at the end of March 2024, NOV had US$1.81b of debt, up from US$1.73b a year ago. Click the image for more detail. However, it does have US$468.0m in cash offsetting this, leading to net debt of about US$1.34b.

正如下面所示,截至2024年3月底,华高公司的债务总额为1.81亿美元,较去年同期的1.73亿美元增长。点击图片了解更多详情。然而,它确实有4,680万美元的现金抵消这些债务,导致净债务约为1.34亿美元。

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NYSE:NOV Debt to Equity History July 26th 2024
纽交所:NOV债务股本历史图表2024年7月26日

How Strong Is NOV's Balance Sheet?

我们可以从最新的资产负债表中看到,华高公司有总额为2.27亿美元的负债在一年内到期,还有总额为2.71亿美元的负债将在未来到期。相对应地,它有4,680万美元的现金和2.68亿美元应于12个月内到期的应收账款。这样,其负债超过了其现金和(短期)应收款项的总和,达到了1.84亿美元。

We can see from the most recent balance sheet that NOV had liabilities of US$2.27b falling due within a year, and liabilities of US$2.71b due beyond that. Offsetting this, it had US$468.0m in cash and US$2.68b in receivables that were due within 12 months. So its liabilities outweigh the sum of its cash and (near-term) receivables by US$1.84b.

虽然这可能看起来很多,但华高公司的市值为7.22亿美元,因此,如果需要,它可能通过筹集资本来加强其资产负债表。但是,仍然很值得仔细关注其偿付债务的能力。

While this might seem like a lot, it is not so bad since NOV has a market capitalization of US$7.22b, and so it could probably strengthen its balance sheet by raising capital if it needed to. However, it is still worthwhile taking a close look at its ability to pay off debt.

华高公司的净债务与EBITDA比率仅为1.3,而其EBIt轻松覆盖其利息支出,规模达到11.7倍。因此,我们对其极为保守的债务使用情况非常放松。另外,我们很高兴地报告,华高公司将其EBIt提高了52%,从而降低了未来偿还债务的风险。毫无疑问,我们从资产负债表中最多了解到债务的情况。但最终,企业未来的盈利能力将决定华高公司能否在时间范围内加强其资产负债表。因此,如果您想看看专业人士的看法,您可能会发现这份免费的分析师利润预测报告非常有趣。

In order to size up a company's debt relative to its earnings, we calculate its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) divided by its interest expense (its interest cover). This way, we consider both the absolute quantum of the debt, as well as the interest rates paid on it.

为了比较一个公司的债务与其收益的关系,我们计算其净债务除以利息、税、折旧和摊销前的收益和利息前的收益(其利息覆盖率)。因此,我们考虑了债务的绝对数量以及支付的利率。

NOV has a low net debt to EBITDA ratio of only 1.3. And its EBIT easily covers its interest expense, being 11.7 times the size. So we're pretty relaxed about its super-conservative use of debt. In addition to that, we're happy to report that NOV has boosted its EBIT by 52%, thus reducing the spectre of future debt repayments. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But ultimately the future profitability of the business will decide if NOV can strengthen its balance sheet over time. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.

但我们最后考虑的也很重要,因为公司无法用纸面利润偿还债务,它需要冰冷的现金。因此,逻辑下一步是查看与实际自由现金流匹配的EBIt的比例。在过去的两年中,华高公司烧掉了很多现金。尽管这可能是为增长而支出的结果,但它确实使债务风险更大了。

But our final consideration is also important, because a company cannot pay debt with paper profits; it needs cold hard cash. So the logical step is to look at the proportion of that EBIT that is matched by actual free cash flow. During the last two years, NOV burned a lot of cash. While that may be a result of expenditure for growth, it does make the debt far more risky.

基于我们所看到的,考虑到EBIt转换为自由现金流的情况不容易,但我们考虑的其他因素让我们有理由感到乐观。毫无疑问,它的EBIt增长能力非常强。考虑到这些数据点,我们认为华高公司处于良好的债务管理地位。话虽如此,负担是非常沉重的,我们建议股东们密切关注它。我们毫不怀疑,我们从资产负债表中最多了解到债务的情况。但是,最终,每个公司都可能存在超出资产负债表风险的风险。这里有一个例子:我们已经发现华高公司存在2个警示标志,您应该注意到其中1个不太适合我们。

Our View

我们的观点

Based on what we've seen NOV is not finding it easy, given its conversion of EBIT to free cash flow, but the other factors we considered give us cause to be optimistic. There's no doubt that its ability to to grow its EBIT is pretty flash. Considering this range of data points, we think NOV is in a good position to manage its debt levels. Having said that, the load is sufficiently heavy that we would recommend any shareholders keep a close eye on it. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. Case in point: We've spotted 2 warning signs for NOV you should be aware of, and 1 of them doesn't sit too well with us.

根据我们所看到的,华高公司并不容易转换EBIt为自由现金流,但我们考虑的其他因素让我们有理由感到乐观。毫无疑问,它的EBIt增长能力非常强。考虑到这些数据点,我们认为华高公司处于良好的债务管理地位。话虽如此,负担是非常沉重的,我们建议股东们密切关注它。我们毫不怀疑,我们从资产负债表中最多了解到债务的情况。但是,最终,每个公司都可能存在超出资产负债表风险的风险。这里有一个例子:我们已经发现华高公司存在2个警示标志,您应该注意到其中1个不太适合我们。根据我们所看到的,华高公司并不容易转换EBIt为自由现金流,但我们考虑的其他因素让我们有理由感到乐观。毫无疑问,它的EBIt增长能力非常强。考虑到这些数据点,我们认为华高公司处于良好的债务管理地位。话虽如此,负担是非常沉重的,我们建议股东们密切关注它。我们毫不怀疑,我们从资产负债表中最多了解到债务的情况。但是,最终,每个公司都可能存在超出资产负债表风险的风险。这里有一个例子:我们已经发现华高公司存在2个警示标志,您应该注意到其中1个不太适合我们。

At the end of the day, it's often better to focus on companies that are free from net debt. You can access our special list of such companies (all with a track record of profit growth). It's free.

总的来说,专注于没有净债务的公司往往更好。您可以访问我们的特别列表,其中包含这些公司(所有这些公司都有盈利增长的记录)。这是免费的。

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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这篇文章是Simply Wall St的一般性文章。我们根据历史数据和分析师预测提供评论,只使用公正的方法论,我们的文章并不意味着提供任何金融建议。文章不构成买卖任何股票的建议,也不考虑您的目标或您的财务状况。我们的目标是带给您基本数据驱动的长期关注分析。请注意,我们的分析可能不考虑最新的价格敏感公司公告或定性材料。Simply Wall St没有任何股票头寸。

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com

对本文有任何反馈?对内容有任何疑虑?请直接与我们联系。或者,发送电子邮件至editorial-team@simplywallst.com。

声明:本内容仅用作提供资讯及教育之目的,不构成对任何特定投资或投资策略的推荐或认可。 更多信息
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