Stelux Holdings International's (HKG:84) Earnings Might Be Weaker Than You Think
Stelux Holdings International's (HKG:84) Earnings Might Be Weaker Than You Think
Solid profit numbers didn't seem to be enough to please Stelux Holdings International Limited's (HKG:84) shareholders. We think that they might be concerned about some underlying details that our analysis found.
实际上,Stelux Holdings International Limited(HKG:84)的强劲利润数字并不足以取悦其股东。我们认为,他们可能会关心我们的分析发现的一些潜在细节。
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Examining Cashflow Against Stelux Holdings International's Earnings
检查现金流与宝光实业收入的对比
Many investors haven't heard of the accrual ratio from cashflow, but it is actually a useful measure of how well a company's profit is backed up by free cash flow (FCF) during a given period. In plain english, this ratio subtracts FCF from net profit, and divides that number by the company's average operating assets over that period. You could think of the accrual ratio from cashflow as the 'non-FCF profit ratio'.
许多投资者没有听说过从现金流计算的应计比率,但这实际上是一个衡量公司利润在特定期间内是否由自由现金流(FCF)支持的有用度量。简单地说,此比率从净利润中减去FCF,再将该数字除以公司在该期间内的平均营运资产。你可以把从现金流计算的应计比率看作是“非自由现金流利润比率”。
That means a negative accrual ratio is a good thing, because it shows that the company is bringing in more free cash flow than its profit would suggest. While it's not a problem to have a positive accrual ratio, indicating a certain level of non-cash profits, a high accrual ratio is arguably a bad thing, because it indicates paper profits are not matched by cash flow. That's because some academic studies have suggested that high accruals ratios tend to lead to lower profit or less profit growth.
这意味着负应计比率是一件好事,因为它显示公司带来的自由现金流比其利润所表明的要多。虽然拥有正应计比率并不是问题,表明存在一定水平的非现金利润,但高应计比率可能是一件不好的事情,因为这表明纸上盈利与现金流不匹配。因为一些学术研究表明,高应计比率往往会导致较低的利润或较少的利润增长。
Stelux Holdings International has an accrual ratio of 0.59 for the year to March 2024. Statistically speaking, that's a real negative for future earnings. To wit, the company did not generate one whit of free cashflow in that time. Over the last year it actually had negative free cash flow of HK$31m, in contrast to the aforementioned profit of HK$473.2m. It's worth noting that Stelux Holdings International generated positive FCF of HK$54m a year ago, so at least they've done it in the past. Having said that, there is more to the story. The accrual ratio is reflecting the impact of unusual items on statutory profit, at least in part. One positive for Stelux Holdings International shareholders is that it's accrual ratio was significantly better last year, providing reason to believe that it may return to stronger cash conversion in the future. As a result, some shareholders may be looking for stronger cash conversion in the current year.
2024年3月份的宝光实业应计率为0.59。从统计学角度来看,这对未来的收益是真正的负面影响。换句话说,该公司在那段时间里没有产生任何自由现金流。去年,它实际上产生了3100万港元的负面现金流,而营业收入则为47320万港元。值得注意的是,宝光实业在一年前产生了5400万港元的正自由现金流,所以至少他们曾经做到过。但是,我们还需要考虑更多因素。应计比率反映的是非正常项目对公司财务利润的影响。值得庆幸的是,宝光实业去年的应计比率要好得多,这使得我们有理由相信它将来会回归强劲的现金转化。因此,一些股东可能在寻求当前一年的更强现金转化。
Note: we always recommend investors check balance sheet strength. Click here to be taken to our balance sheet analysis of Stelux Holdings International.
注意:我们始终建议投资者检查资产负债表的强度。点击此处以进入我们对宝光实业资产负债表分析的详细介绍。
How Do Unusual Items Influence Profit?
非常规项目如何影响利润?
The fact that the company had unusual items boosting profit by HK$502m, in the last year, probably goes some way to explain why its accrual ratio was so weak. While we like to see profit increases, we tend to be a little more cautious when unusual items have made a big contribution. When we analysed the vast majority of listed companies worldwide, we found that significant unusual items are often not repeated. Which is hardly surprising, given the name. We can see that Stelux Holdings International's positive unusual items were quite significant relative to its profit in the year to March 2024. All else being equal, this would likely have the effect of making the statutory profit a poor guide to underlying earnings power.
事实上,宝光实业上一年的非正常项目增加了5,0200万港元的利润,这可能能够在一定程度上解释其应计比率如此之低的原因。虽然我们喜欢看到利润的增加,但当非常规项目产生重大贡献时,我们往往会更加谨慎。在我们分析全球绝大多数上市公司时,我们发现重大非正常项目经常不会重复。这并不奇怪,考虑到其名称就知道了。我们可以看到,相对于2024年3月份的利润,宝光实业的正非正常项目非常显著。其他条件相等的情况下,这可能会使财务利润成为判断基准相对较差。
Our Take On Stelux Holdings International's Profit Performance
我们对宝光实业的利润表现的看法
Summing up, Stelux Holdings International received a nice boost to profit from unusual items, but could not match its paper profit with free cash flow. For all the reasons mentioned above, we think that, at a glance, Stelux Holdings International's statutory profits could be considered to be low quality, because they are likely to give investors an overly positive impression of the company. With this in mind, we wouldn't consider investing in a stock unless we had a thorough understanding of the risks. Case in point: We've spotted 2 warning signs for Stelux Holdings International you should be mindful of and 1 of these is potentially serious.
总之,尽管某些非正常项目提高了宝光实业的利润,但该公司无法用自由现金流与其表面利润相匹配。因此,基于上述所有原因,我们认为宝光实业的财务利润在一瞥之下可能被认为是低质量的,因为它们很可能给投资者留下过于乐观的印象。有此想法的话,带着这个意识我们不会考虑投资股票,除非我们对风险有彻底的了解。例子:我们在宝光实业发现了2个警告信号,您应该注意到其中1个可能非常严重。
Our examination of Stelux Holdings International has focussed on certain factors that can make its earnings look better than they are. And, on that basis, we are somewhat skeptical. But there are plenty of other ways to inform your opinion of a company. Some people consider a high return on equity to be a good sign of a quality business. So you may wish to see this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks with high insider ownership.
我们对宝光实业的审查集中在某些因素上,这些因素可以使其收益看起来比实际情况更好。基于此,我们持谨慎态度。但是还有很多其他方法可以了解一家公司。有些人认为高股本回报率是一家优质企业的良好迹象。因此您可能希望查看这个免费的高股本回报率公司系列,以及这个具有高内部所有权的股票列表。
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Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com
对本文有任何反馈?对内容有任何疑虑?请直接与我们联系。或者,发送电子邮件至editorial-team@simplywallst.com。