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Top 'Trump Trade' Isn't The Dollar But Gold As Survey Participants Foresee 'Severe Disruptions To Markets And Trade'

Top 'Trump Trade' Isn't The Dollar But Gold As Survey Participants Foresee 'Severe Disruptions To Markets And Trade'

“特朗普交易”的首选品不是美元,而是黄金,因为调查参与者预见到“严重的市场和贸易崩溃”
Benzinga ·  22:42

Gold has emerged as the top choice for investors looking to hedge their portfolios in the event of a potential second term for Donald Trump.

黄金已成为投资者在特朗普概念可能实现第二任期时用于对冲投资组合的首选。

What Happened: The precious metal has been identified as the best hedge against a possible Trump presidency, according to a Bloomberg Markets Live Pulse survey. The survey, conducted from Jul. 22 to Jul. 26, included 480 respondents.

珍贵金属在彭博市场实时脉动的调查中被认为是对抗特朗普政府最佳的对冲工具。调查由7月22日至7月26日进行,共有480名受访者。

Over 60% of the participants believe that the U.S. dollar would weaken if Trump secures another term. This view is supported by the historical performance of the dollar, which slid over 10% while the price of gold surged over 50% during Trump's previous tenure.

超过60%的受访者认为,特朗普再次当选会导致美元贬值。这个观点得到了美元的历史表现的支持,在特朗普的上一任期间,美元下跌了超过10%,而黄金价格则上涨了超过50%。

Trump's proposed policies, such as tax cuts, tariffs, and reduced regulations, are seen as inflationary by Wall Street and could potentially prompt the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates. A Republican victory in the November elections, granting Trump more leeway to implement his economic policies, could further drive up gold prices.

华尔街认为,特朗普提出的政策,如减税、关税和减少监管,是具有通货膨胀风险的,这可能促使美联储加息。共和党在11月的选举中获胜,给特朗普实施其经济政策更大的自由度,也可能进一步推高黄金价格。

JPMorgan Chase & Co. analyst Gregory Shearer noted that geopolitical tensions, the growing U.S. deficit, and inflation hedging have driven gold prices higher. These factors could be magnified under a Trump presidency or a Republican-controlled Congress.

根据摩根大通分析师格雷戈里‧谢尔(Gregory Shearer)指出,地缘政治紧张局势、不断增长的美国赤字和抵御通胀压力推高了黄金价格。这些因素在特朗普政府或共和党控制的国会下可能会被放大。

Survey respondents echoed this sentiment, with one stating, "All I can see are severe disruptions to markets and trade, and rapid increases" in the U.S. national debt.

调查受访者也表达了这种观点,其中一位表示:“我所能看到的只是市场和贸易的严重干扰以及美国国债的迅速增加。”

"When the US is creating its own risk premium due to a potentially disorderly election, the fiscal implications of a Trump presidency, that makes the dollar in 2025 a risk," said Kathleen Brooks, research director at XTB.

XTb研究总监凯瑟琳·布鲁克斯(Kathleen Brooks)表示:“当美国由于潜在的混乱选举而创造其自己的风险溢价时,特朗普当选的财政影响会使2025年美元成为一种风险。”

Why It Matters: The 2024 presidential race has been thrown into uncertainty following President Joe Biden's decision to step down, endorsing Vice President Kamala Harris. This has led to speculation about the future of the "Trump trade," a term referring to market strategies that would benefit from a potential Trump return to the White House.

为何重要:2024年总统竞选因乔·拜登总统决定卸任,赞成副总统卡玛拉·哈里斯而被带入了不确定性。这导致了人们对“特朗普交易”的未来的猜测,这个术语是指市场策略,这些策略将从特朗普重返白宫中受益。

Former President Trump has criticized the current economic state under Biden, blaming the administration for inflation issues and claiming that the stock market is only enriching the wealthy.

前总统特朗普批评了拜登政府下的经济状况,责怪政府的通胀问题,并声称股市只让富人更富。

With the upcoming election, defense stocks are also seeing significant attention, as investors weigh the potential impacts of a Harris or Trump presidency on various sectors.

随着即将到来的选举,国防股也受到了重视,投资者正在权衡哈里斯或特朗普政府对各个行业的潜在影响。

Price Action: Gold Spot prices rose by 0.23% to $2,392.61, reflecting an increase of $5.54. Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index saw a slight decline on Friday's market close, dropping 0.11% to $104.20, according to data from Benzinga Pro.

黄金现货价格上涨0.23%,至2392.61美元,涨5.54美元。与此同时,美元指数在星期五收盘时略有下跌,下跌了0.11%,至104.20美元,根据Benzinga Pro的数据。

声明:本内容仅用作提供资讯及教育之目的,不构成对任何特定投资或投资策略的推荐或认可。 更多信息
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