Tesla Analyst Says Full Self-Driving 'Matters More Than Anything Else,' Latest Version Is 'Revolutionary,' Will Take Stock To $300
Tesla Analyst Says Full Self-Driving 'Matters More Than Anything Else,' Latest Version Is 'Revolutionary,' Will Take Stock To $300
Piper Sandler believes $Tesla (TSLA.US)$ Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA) may have solved the autonomous vehicle puzzle. Despite CEO Elon Musk's track record of overpromising, the analyst highlighted the latest version of Tesla's Full Self-Driving as the real deal.
派杰投资认为$特斯拉 (TSLA.US)$（纳斯达克：特斯拉）可能已经解决了自动驾驶汽车难题。尽管首席执行官埃隆·马斯克过去做出了夸大其词的承诺，但分析师指出，特斯拉的最新全自动驾驶版本是真正的交易。
What Happened: Piper Sandler analyst Alexander Potter maintained Tesla with an Overweight rating on Sunday, noting that recent advancements in the EV maker's Full Self-Driving technology appear to be underappreciated.
经济学家Alexander Potter在周日保持对特斯拉的股票的超配评级，指出新近的电动汽车制造商全自动驾驶技术的进展似乎被低估了。
Based on recent reviews on the X social media platform, the Piper Sandler analyst believes the latest Full Self-Driving software from Tesla, version 12.5, is "revolutionary."
基于最新的社交媒体平台X的评价，派杰投资的分析师认为特斯拉的最新全自动驾驶软件，即版本12.5,"是革命性的"。
"We think investors should consider the possibility that Tesla's decision to host a robo-taxi event (October 10th) isn't a ploy to distract from falling EV sales. Instead, it could catalyze a realization that FSD matters more than anything else," Potter said in a note to clients this week.
"我们认为投资者应该考虑这种可能性：特斯拉举办机器人出租车活动（10月10日）并不是一种旨在转移注意力的策略，而是可能激励人们认识到全自动驾驶比其他任何事情都更重要，"波特本周在给客户的一份报告中表示。
Tesla shares are down nearly 7% year-to-date. Despite reporting a couple of weak quarters, Musk has downplayed the results and shifted investor attention toward his vision for the future around AI, Full Self-Driving and robotaxis.
特斯拉的股票年初以来下跌近7％。尽管报告了几个弱季度，Musk淡化了结果并把投资者的注意力转向了围绕人工智能，全自动驾驶和机器人出租车的未来愿景。
Potter argues that Musk's focus is in the right place. A majority of Piper Sandler's price forecast is based on Full Self-Driving revenue assumptions. If you take Full Self-Driving out of the equation, Piper Sandler's model implies fair value of just $77 per share.
波特认为，马斯克的焦点是正确的。派杰投资的大部分价格预测都基于全自动驾驶的收入假设。如果你把全自动驾驶排除在外，派杰投资的模型意味着每股公平价值只有77美元。
"If investors own TSLA at this valuation, we think they must implicitly believe in FSD," Potter said.
"如果投资者以这个估值拥有TSLA股票，我们认为他们必须内在地相信全自动驾驶技术,"波特说。
The Piper Sandler analyst expects Full Self-Driving take-rates to inflect "sharply upward," beginning around 2030. The analyst further anticipates approximately 100% fleet-wide Full Self-Driving adoption in 20 years.
派杰投资的分析师预测，从2030年开始，全自动驾驶的占有率将迅速上升。该分析师进一步预测，在20年内，全自动驾驶的采用率将达到大约100％。
Further adding to the analyst's Full Self-Driving thesis, Potter expects subscription prices to eventually rise to more than $500 per month, up from the current price of $99 per month.
此外，波特还预计，随着时间的推移，订阅价格将最终上涨到每月500美元以上，而不是当前价格每月99美元。
"We also think Tesla will eventually sell EVs for ~$31k apiece, at 0% gross margin ... but ultimately, just like cheap flip-phones, we don't think anyone will buy non-FSD cars," Potter said.
"我们也认为，特斯拉最终将以每台约3.1万元的价格出售电动汽车，并且没有毛利，请记住，就像便宜的翻盖手机一样，我们认为没有人会购买非全自动驾驶汽车，"波特说。
Potter expects Tesla's Full Self-Driving to be a major driver of margin expansion, starting in the late 2020s, as he anticipates 90% gross margin on Full Self-Driving-related revenue. Piper Sandler has a price target of $300 on Tesla shares.
波特预计，特斯拉的全自动驾驶将成为利润扩张的主要驱动力，自2020年代末开始，他预计，全自动驾驶相关的收入将实现90％的毛利率。派杰投资的特斯拉股票价格目标为300美元。
TSLA Price Action: Tesla shares were up 5.6% at $232.10 Monday.
特斯拉股票价格表现：周一特斯拉股票上涨5.6％，报232.10美元。