Summer Doldrums Tend To Hit Stock Market In August, Low To Negative Returns Historically
Summer Doldrums Tend To Hit Stock Market In August, Low To Negative Returns Historically
August is not historically a very good month for stocks. Across several major indices, average returns for the month are low to negative, and it is essentially a coin flip as to whether an index will finish higher or lower. In other words, there is no strong directional bias in August.
从多个主要指数来看，八月并不是股票历史上的好月份。该月的平均回报低到负数，而指数的涨跌基本上是个硬币翻转，无明显趋势。换句话说，八月没有明显的方向偏向。
Some investors may think all months are a coin flip as to whether a stock index will go higher or not, but that doesn't appear to be the case. Some months are much stronger than others.
有些投资者可能认为所有月份股票指数涨跌是硬币翻转的概率，但事实并非如此。有些月份比其他月份更强势。
For example, the S&P 500 has moved higher in 16 out of the last 20 Aprils and Novembers (80%), with average gains of 2% and 2.5%, respectively. The S&P 500 has moved higher in July 75% of the time over the last 20 years, with an average gain of 2.4%. Those are the best months of the year for stocks, with upside biases.
例如，标普500指数在过去20个四月和11月中有16个月上涨（占比80%），平均涨幅分别为2%和2.5%。在过去20年中，标普500指数在七月上涨的概率为75%，平均涨幅为2.4%。这些是股票市场最好的月份，意味着有上涨的趋势。
For comparison, here's how August has historically performed in various indices.
作为比较，以下是历年各指数八月表现的情况。
The S&P 500, tracked by the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (NYSE:SPY).
标普500指数，由SPDR标普500ETF（纽交所：SPY）跟踪。
- 12 out of the last 20 years it has moved up in the month (60%), with an average gain of 0.1%.
- 在过去20年中，它在八月中上涨了12次（占比60%），平均涨幅为0.1%。
The Nasdaq 100, tracked by the Invesco QQQ Trust (NASDAQ:QQQ)
纳斯达克100指数，由纳指100ETF - 英威腾QQQ跟踪（纳斯达克：QQQ）。
- 11 out of the last 20 years it has moved up in the month (55%), with an average gain of 0.7%.
- 在过去20年中，它在八月中上涨了11次（占比55%），平均涨幅为0.7%。
The NYSE Composite Index is a broad measure of stock performance, including companies of varying sizes and industries.
纽约证券交易所综合指数是衡量股票表现的广泛指标，包括各种规模和行业的公司。
- 10 of the last 20 years it has moved higher in August (50%). The average return for the month is -0.6%.
- 在过去20年中，它有10次在八月上涨的记录（占比50%）。该月份的平均回报为-0.6%。
So are there any stock market bright spots in August?
那么，八月是否有任何股市亮点？
Possibly, but when looking at seasonal patterns in Sector ETFs, they told the same story as the stock indices. None of the sector ETFs had strong historical performance in August.
可能有，但当调查板块ETF的季节性变化时，它们的历史表现与股票指数相同。所有板块ETF在八月份均没有强烈表现。
Most stocks move with the direction of the indices, but there are occasionally ones that perform strongly while the stock indices are weak or flat. These can be found by looking for price momentum in a stock scanner.
大多数股票与指数方向相同，但偶尔有些股票表现良好，而股票指数却表现疲软或平稳。可以通过股票扫描仪查找价格动量来找到这些股票。
The study of how stock indices have historically performed at a certain time of year is called seasonality. It doesn't necessarily predict what will happen this year, it only tells us what has happened in the past. It should not be relied on exclusively for trading or investing decisions. Use it, or don't use it, in conjunction with a personalized trading/investing plan.
股票指数在特定时间段内的历史表现研究称为季节性。这并不一定预测今年会发生什么，它只告诉我们过去发生了什么。不能仅仅依靠它来进行交易或投资决策。应该在个性化的交易/投资计划中使用它或不使用它。
This article is from an unpaid external contributor. It does not represent Benzinga's reporting and has not been edited for content or accuracy.
本文来自非报酬的外部投稿人。它不代表Benzinga的报道，并且没有因为内容或准确性而被编辑。