HSBC 2024 Outlook: Sees NII Of Around $43B And RoTE In The Mid-Teens; Expects To Maintain the CET1 Capital Ratio Within 14% To 14.5%
HSBC 2024 Outlook: Sees NII Of Around $43B And RoTE In The Mid-Teens; Expects To Maintain the CET1 Capital Ratio Within 14% To 14.5%
Outlook
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We will now target a return on average tangible equity ('RoTE'), excluding the impact of notable items, in the mid-teens for both 2024 and 2025.
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Based upon our current forecasts, we expect banking NII of around $43bn in 2024. This guidance remains dependent on the path of interest rates globally.
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While loan growth was 1% in 1H24, revenue has continued to benefit from elevated interest rates. Over the medium to long term, we continue to expect mid-single digit year-on-year percentage growth in customer lending.
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We are reiterating our cost growth guidance of approximately 5% for 2024 compared with 2023, on a target basis, and now expect ECL charges as a percentage of average gross loans in 2024 to be within our medium-term planning range of 30bps to 40bps (including customer lending balances transferred to held for sale).
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Our guidance reflects our current outlook for the global macroeconomic environment, including customer and financial markets activity. This includes our modelling of a number of market dependent factors, such as market-implied interest rates (as of mid-July 2024), as well as customer behaviour and activity levels.
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We intend to manage our CET1 capital ratio within our medium-term target range of 14% to 14.5%, with a dividend payout ratio target basis of 50% for 2024, which excludes material notable items and related impacts.
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Note: we do not reconcile our forward guidance on RoTE excluding notable items, target basis operating expenses, dividend payout ratio target basis or banking NII to their equivalent reported measures.
展望
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我们将在2024年和2025年实现中等青年人回报率(RoTE)的平均有形股本回报率,不包括值得注意的项目的影响。
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根据我们目前的预测,我们预计2024年银行净利息收入约为430亿美元。这一指引仍然取决于全球利率走势。
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虽然1H24贷款增长了1%,但收入仍继续受益于利率的上涨。中长期内,我们仍然预计客户贷款年同比增长中高单位数。
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我们重申2024年与2023年相比成本增长约为5%的指引,并且现在预计2024年ECL费用占平均毛贷款的比例将在我们的中长期规划范围内为30个基点到40个基点(包括转售客户贷款余额)。
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我们的指引反映了我们对全球宏观经济环境、客户和金融市场活动的当前前景,包括我们对多个市场相关因素的建模,如市场隐含的利率(截至2024年7月中旬),以及客户行为和活动水平。
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我们打算将我们的CET1资本充足率在14%至14.5%的中长期目标范围内管理,2024年的股息支付比率以50%的目标为基础,不包括重大项目和相关影响。
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注意:我们不会将关于RoTE排除重大项目、营业费用,股息支付比率和银行净利息收入的前瞻性指引与它们相应的报告措施进行调和。