US Private Employment Rises By 122,000 In July, Misses Estimates: 'If Inflation Goes Back Up, It Won't Be Because Of Labor'
US Private Employment Rises By 122,000 In July, Misses Estimates: 'If Inflation Goes Back Up, It Won't Be Because Of Labor'
The rate of job creation in the U.S. private sector fell short of expectations in July, indicating a cooling in labor market conditions.
7月美国私营部门就业增长率未达预期，表明劳动力市场情况正在降温。
Private employers in the U.S. added 122,000 jobs in the past month, the lowest since January 2024 and down from the upwardly revised 155,000 jobs in June, the ADP National Employment Report shows.
美国私人雇主上月增加12.2万个工作岗位， ADP国家就业报告显示，这是自2024年1月以来的最低水平，低于6月修正后的155,000个工作岗位。
The reading also marks the fourth consecutive month of declining growth in U.S. private employment and missed the projected 150,000 jobs, according to consensus estimates from TradingEconomics.
据TradingEconomics的共识预测，这一数据还标志着美国私人就业增长连续第四个月下降，未能达到预期的15万个岗位。
The ADP's private employment snapshot, based on payroll data from over 500,000 companies and more than 25 million employees, provides a preview of the official jobs report expected this Friday. Economists predict that total nonfarm payrolls, including government jobs, will decrease from 206,000 in June to 175,000 in July. The unemployment rate is expected to remain steady at 4.1%, and average hourly earnings are anticipated to maintain a 0.3% monthly increase.
ADP的私人就业快照基于来自50万多家公司和2500万名员工的工资单数据，提供了对预计于本周五公布的官方就业报告的预览。经济学家预计，包括政府工作的全部非农就业人员将从6月的206,000人减少到7月的175,000人。失业率预计将保持在4.1％，平均小时收入预计将保持每月增长0.3％。
July ADP National Employment Report: Key Highlights
7月ADP国家就业报告：主要亮点
- Services-providing companies added 85,000 jobs, while goods producers added 37,000.
- Industries experiencing increases in employment were trade, transportation, and utilities (61,000), construction (39,000), leisure and hospitality (24,000), financial activities (14,000).
- Industries witnessing the sharpest job contractions were professional/business services (down by 37,000), information (down by 18,000) and manufacturing (down by 4,000).
- Year-over-year pay increases for job-stayers were 4.8% in July, down from 4.9% in June and marking the slowest pace in three years. Pay gains for those who switched jobs also fell, down from 7.7% to 7.2%.
- "With wage growth abating, the labor market is playing along with the Federal Reserve's effort to slow inflation. If inflation goes back up, it won't be because of labor." Nela Richardson, chief economist at ADP, said.
- 服务提供型公司新增了85000个工作岗位，而制造商新增了37000个工作岗位。
- 经济增长的行业包括贸易、运输和公用事业（61,000），建筑业（39,000），休闲和酒店业（24,000），金融活动（14,000）。
- 目睹就业岗位大幅减少的行业是专业/商业服务（降低3.7万）、信息行业（降低1.8万）和制造业（降低4,000）。
- 7月工作留用者的年度加薪增长率为4.8％，低于6月的4.9％，是三年来最缓慢的。转换工作的人的工资增长也下降，从7.7％下降到7.2％。
- ADP首席经济学家Nela Richardson表示：“随着工资增长的减缓，劳动力市场正在配合美联储的通胀放缓，如果通胀再次上升，那不会是由于劳动力市场。”
Market Reactions
市场反应
- The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), as tracked by the Invesco DB USD Index Bullish Fund ETF (NYSE:UUP), fell 0.4%.
- Treasury yields softened slightly, with the 10-year Treasury note trading at 4.13%.
- Gold, as tracked by the SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:GLD), rose 0.4%.
- Futures on U.S. equity indices traded higher in the premarket on Wednesday, following the negative close seen Tuesday.
- Among notable premarket movers, shares of Microsoft Corp. (NYSE:MSFT) traded 3% lower as growth in the business cloud softened, despite the tech giant reported stronger-than-expected earnings. Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (NASDAQ:AMD) rallied over 7%.
- 由Invesco Db USD Index Bullish Fund ETF (纽交所：UUP)跟踪的美元指数（DXY）下跌0.4%。
- 国债收益率略有回落，10年期国债收益率交易为4.13％。
- SPDR Gold Trust (纽交所：GLD)跟踪的黄金上涨了0.4％。
- 周三市前美国股指期货交易高位，继周二下跌后。
- 在值得关注的市前活动中，微软公司 (纽交所：MSFT) 的股票下跌了3％，尽管这家科技巨头报告的盈利高于预期，但业务云的增长放缓。美国超微公司 (纳斯达克：AMD) 上涨超过7％。
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