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After Jerome Powell Hinted That Rate Cut Is Round The Corner, Investors Caution Soft Landing 'Risks Are Two-Sided'

After Jerome Powell Hinted That Rate Cut Is Round The Corner, Investors Caution Soft Landing 'Risks Are Two-Sided'

在杰罗姆·鲍威尔暗示降息就在眼前之时,投资者谨慎认为软着陆的风险是双面的。
Benzinga ·  03:53

The U.S. Federal Reserve's impending rate cuts have investors questioning the potential impact on the economy. The primary concern is whether the Fed can achieve a smooth economic transition without stalling growth or reigniting inflation.

美国联邦储备委员会即将降息,这让投资者开始质疑其对经济的潜在影响。主要关注点在于,联储能否在不阻碍增长或重新点燃通货膨胀的情况下实现经济平稳过渡。

What Happened: Investors are evaluating the Federal Reserve's capacity to execute a "soft landing" for the economy, Reuters reported Thursday. The strategy involves reducing inflation without significantly affecting growth, a tactic that has enhanced asset prices this year.

事件经过:据路透社周四报道,投资者正在评估美联储实施经济“软着陆”的能力。这一策略旨在降低通货膨胀率而不显著影响增长,这种策略使得今年的资产价格得到了提高。

On Wednesday, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell hinted that the central bank might cut rates in September if inflation continues to cool. The Fed had chosen to hold the interest rate steady at 5.25-5.5% for the eighth consecutive meeting in July. This is the strongest indication yet that officials are gearing up to ease monetary policy soon.

周三,美联储主席鲍威尔暗示如果通货膨胀持续降温,联邦储备委员会可能会在9月份降低利率。在7月份举行的第8次连续会议上,美联储选择将利率保持在5.25%-5.5%不变。这是官员们即将轻松货币政策的最强烈迹象。

However, this signal has not entirely placated investors. Some argue that the Fed has kept rates high for too long, potentially endangering the chances of a successful economic soft landing. Others fear that loosening monetary policy amid a relatively strong economy could spark inflation, limiting the Fed's ability to further cut rates.

然而,这个信号并没有完全使投资者平静。有些人认为美联储长时间保持高利率,可能危及成功实现经济软着陆的机会。其他人则担心在相对强劲的经济环境下放宽货币政策可能会引发通货膨胀,从而限制美联储进一步降息的能力。

"There are reasons to think the soft landing is still alive ... but the risks are two-sided," said George Catrambone, head of fixed income and trading at DWS.

DWS内的固定收益和交易主管George Catrambone表示:“有理由认为软着陆仍然存在,但风险是双向的。”

"Soft landings don't materialize by waiting too long."

“软着陆不会因为等待时间太久而实现。”

Some investors are also concerned about rate cuts taking longer to keep the growth momentum, thus increasing the chance of a recession.

一些投资者还担心降息需要更长时间来保持经济增长势头,从而增加了经济衰退的可能性。

Jack McIntyre, of Brandywine Global Investment Management said, "Even if the Fed starts in September, it might not be enough to alter the course of the economy going into 2025."

Brandywine Global Investment Management的Jack McIntyre表示:“即使美联储在9月份开始降息,也可能不足以改变经济走向,进入2025年。”

As of Wednesday, futures tied to the Fed's policy rate showed investors pricing in an 87% chance of a September 25 basis-point cut. Despite this, U.S. stocks maintained sharp gains, with the S&P 500 closing up 1.6%.

截至周三,与美联储政策利率挂钩的期货显示,投资者将9月降息25个基点的概率定价为87%。尽管如此,美国股市仍保持明显的上涨,标普500指数收盘上涨1.6%。

Investors are now eagerly awaiting Friday's employment data report and the Fed's Jackson Hole symposium later this month for further insights into the economy's trajectory.

投资者们现在热切期待着本周五的就业数据报告和本月晚些时候的美联储杰克逊霍尔研讨会,以获取更进一步的经济发展信息。

Why It Matters: There is also an increasing likelihood of more fed rate cuts in the first half of 2025, according to market economists.

为什么重要:市场经济学家认为,在2025年上半年有更多的联合国利率降息的可能性越来越大。

"Encouraging inflation news and a further rise in the unemployment rate have pushed Fed officials closer to cutting," Goldman Sachs economist David Mericle said in a recent note. Mericle said the July CPI report would be enough to lead to a September rate cut.  

高盛经济学家David Mericle在最近的一份报告中表示:“鼓励性的通货膨胀新闻和失业率的进一步上升将使美联储官员更接近削减利率。” Mericle认为,7月的消费者价格指数报告足以引发9月降息。

After the Federal Reserve decided at its Wednesday meeting to keep the key interest rate between 5.25% and 5.5%, Bill Adams, chief economist for Comerica Bank, said the committee held rates steady and made a "dovish change" to its July statement to indicate that the time for rate cuts is near.

在美联储周三会议决定将关键利率保持在5.25%至5.5%之后,联信银行首席经济学家Bill Adams表示,委员会稳定利率并在7月的声明中做出“鸽派变化”,表示降息的时机临近。

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