It's shaping up to be a tough period for PHINIA Inc. (NYSE:PHIN), which a week ago released some disappointing quarterly results that could have a notable impact on how the market views the stock. Results showed a clear earnings miss, with US$868m revenue coming in 2.4% lower than what the analystsexpected. Statutory earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.31 missed the mark badly, arriving some 73% below what was expected. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

Following the recent earnings report, the consensus from dual analysts covering PHINIA is for revenues of US$3.44b in 2024. This implies a small 2.1% decline in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to jump 86% to US$3.19. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$3.51b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$3.94 in 2024. So there's definitely been a decline in sentiment after the latest results, noting the substantial drop in new EPS forecasts.

Despite cutting their earnings forecasts,the analysts have lifted their price target 7.1% to US$52.50, suggesting that these impacts are not expected to weigh on the stock's value in the long term.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 4.1% annualised decline to the end of 2024. That is a notable change from historical growth of 2.2% over the last year. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 10% annually for the foreseeable future. It's pretty clear that PHINIA's revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for PHINIA. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. There was also a nice increase in the price target, with the analysts clearly feeling that the intrinsic value of the business is improving.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. At least one analyst has provided forecasts out to 2026, which can be seen for free on our platform here.

You still need to take note of risks, for example - PHINIA has 3 warning signs we think you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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