There's been a notable change in appetite for Inari Medical, Inc. (NASDAQ:NARI) shares in the week since its second-quarter report, with the stock down 16% to US$46.56. Revenues were in line with expectations, at US$146m, while statutory losses ballooned to US$0.54 per share. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

Following the latest results, Inari Medical's eleven analysts are now forecasting revenues of US$599.6m in 2024. This would be a decent 9.5% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Losses are forecast to narrow 2.5% to US$0.95 per share. Before this earnings announcement, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$598.7m and losses of US$0.91 per share in 2024. So it's pretty clear consensus is mixed on Inari Medical after the new consensus numbers; while the analysts held their revenue numbers steady, they also administered a moderate increase in per-share loss expectations.

As a result, there was no major change to the consensus price target of US$66.40, with the analysts implicitly confirming that the business looks to be performing in line with expectations, despite higher forecast losses. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Inari Medical at US$86.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$50.00. These price targets show that analysts do have some differing views on the business, but the estimates do not vary enough to suggest to us that some are betting on wild success or utter failure.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Inari Medical's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2024 expected to display 20% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 29% over the past three years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 8.2% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while Inari Medical's revenue growth is expected to slow, it's still expected to grow faster than the industry itself.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts increased their loss per share estimates for next year. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have estimates - from multiple Inari Medical analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You can also see our analysis of Inari Medical's Board and CEO remuneration and experience, and whether company insiders have been buying stock.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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