Job Creation Tumbles in July, Higher Unemployment Strengthens Case For Interest Rate Cuts: Is The Fed Slow On The Draw?
Job Creation Tumbles in July, Higher Unemployment Strengthens Case For Interest Rate Cuts: Is The Fed Slow On The Draw?
The pace of job creation slowed in July, signaling cooling labor market conditions and strengthening the case for imminent interest rate cuts as early as next month.
七月份的就业增长步伐放缓，意味着劳动力市场条件正在降温，强化了下月可能立即降息的理由。
The U.S. economy added 114,000 jobs last month, down from the revised figure of 179,000 jobs in June, according to official data released Friday.
根据上周五公布的官方数据，美国经济上个月新增114,000个就业岗位，低于6月份修正后的179,000个就业岗位。
July Employment Situation: Key Highlights
7月就业形势：主要亮点
- Nonfarm payrolls came in at 150,000 last month, a slowdown of 63,000 from June, and well below the economist consensus estimate of 175,000 according to TradingEconomics.
- The unemployment rate rose from 4.1% to 4.3%, contrary to expectations of it remaining unchanged.
- Wage growth showed further signs of cooling, with average hourly earnings rising by 0.2% month-over-month, down from 0.3% in June and slightly below expectations.
- On an annual basis, average hourly earnings were 3.6% higher compared to June 2023, down from 3.9% in June and below expectations of 3.7%.
- 根据TradingEconomics的数据，上个月非农就业人数为150,000人，比6月份下降了63,000人，远低于经济学家预计的175,000人。
- 失业率从4.1%上升至4.3%，与预期相反。
- 工资增长显示出进一步降温的迹象，平均每小时收入环比增长0.2%，低于6月份的0.3%，略微低于预期。
- 从年度角度看，平均每小时工资比2023年6月份高出3.6%，低于6月份的3.9%，低于预期的3.7%。
| July 2024 | Consensus | June 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nonfarm payrolls | 114,000 | 175,000 | 179,000 (downwardly revised from 206,000) |
| Unemployment rate | 4.3% | 4.1% | 4% |
| Average hourly earnings (m/m) | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.3% |
| Average hourly earnings (y/y) | 3.6% | 3.7% | 3.9% |
| 2024年7月 | 共识 | 2024年6月 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 非农业就业岗位 | 114,000 | 175,000 | 179,000 （从206,000个就业人数下调） |
| 失业率 | 4.3% | 4.1% | 4% |
| 平均每小时收入（环比） | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.3% |
| 平均每小时收入（同比） | 3.6% | 3.7% | 3.9% |
Market Reactions
市场反应
Treasury yields dropped sharply on Friday as investors turned to safe-haven assets in response to escalating economic and geopolitical risks.
在经济和地缘政治风险升级的情况下，投资者转向避险资产，美国国债收益率周五急剧下降。
The U.S. dollar index (DXY), as tracked by the Invesco DB USD Index Bullish Fund ETF (NYSE:UUP), tumbled 0.7%.
由Invesco Db USD Index Bullish Fund ETF（纽约证券交易所：UUP）跟踪的美元指数（DXY）下跌了0.7%。
Futures on U.S. indices traded sharply in the red, reflecting rising risk aversion in equity markets. Contracts on the S&P 500 Index were 1.6% lower at 8:35 a.m. in New York, while those on the Nasdaq 100 were 2.3% lower.
美国指数期货大幅下跌，反映出股市风险规避情绪的上升。截至纽约时间上午8:35，标普500指数期货下跌1.6%，纳斯达克100期货下跌2.3%。
On Thursday, tech stocks, as monitored through the Invesco QQQ Trust (NASDAQ:QQQ) tumbled 2.6%. The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY) fell 1.4%.
上周四，由Invesco QQQ Trust（纳斯达克：QQQ）监测到的科技股下跌了2.6%。 SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust（纽交所：SPY）下跌了1.4%。
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Photo via Shutterstock.
图片来自Shutterstock。