Earnings Update: Xinyi Solar Holdings Limited (HKG:968) Just Reported And Analysts Are Trimming Their Forecasts
Earnings Update: Xinyi Solar Holdings Limited (HKG:968) Just Reported And Analysts Are Trimming Their Forecasts
Last week, you might have seen that Xinyi Solar Holdings Limited (HKG:968) released its half-year result to the market. The early response was not positive, with shares down 6.2% to HK$3.49 in the past week. Results were roughly in line with estimates, with revenues of HK$13b and statutory earnings per share of HK$0.47. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.
上周,您可能见到了信义光能控股有限公司(HKG:968)发布了半年度业绩。早期反应不太积极,股票在过去一周下跌了6.2%,至HK $3.49。结果大致符合预期,营业收入为HK $130亿,每股收益为HK $0.47。分析师通常会在每个收益报告时更新其预测,我们可以从他们的估计中判断公司的看法是否发生了变化或是否存在任何新问题需要注意。因此,我们收集了最新的业绩后基本共识估计,以了解明年可能会发生什么。
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After the latest results, the 25 analysts covering Xinyi Solar Holdings are now predicting revenues of HK$30.0b in 2024. If met, this would reflect a meaningful 10% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to shrink 7.5% to HK$0.49 in the same period. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of HK$32.7b and earnings per share (EPS) of HK$0.56 in 2024. The analysts seem less optimistic after the recent results, reducing their revenue forecasts and making a real cut to earnings per share numbers.
在最新的业绩公布后,覆盖信义光能控股的25名分析师现在预计2024年营业收入为HK $300亿。如果实现,这将反映营业收入较过去12个月的实际增长10%。预计在同一期间,每股收益将下降7.5%至HK $0.49。然而,在最新的收益之前,分析师曾经预计2024年的营业收入为HK $327亿,每股收益(EPS)为HK $0.56。在最近的业绩公布后,分析师似乎不那么乐观,削减了其营业收入预期并实际削减了每股收益。
It'll come as no surprise then, to learn that the analysts have cut their price target 11% to HK$5.50. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. The most optimistic Xinyi Solar Holdings analyst has a price target of HK$8.16 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at HK$3.70. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.
那么,毫不意外地,我们得知分析师将其价格目标下调了11%至HK $5.50。然而,根据这些数据,我们还可以得出其他结论,因为一些投资者在评估分析师价格目标时也喜欢考虑估计价位的差距。最乐观的信义光能控股分析师的目标价为每股HK $8.16,而最悲观的目标价为每股HK $3.70。请注意分析师价格目标的巨大差距?这对我们来说意味着潜在业务可能存在相当广泛的可能性范围。
Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. The period to the end of 2024 brings more of the same, according to the analysts, with revenue forecast to display 22% growth on an annualised basis. That is in line with its 25% annual growth over the past five years. Compare this with the broader industry, which analyst estimates (in aggregate) suggest will see revenues grow 13% annually. So although Xinyi Solar Holdings is expected to maintain its revenue growth rate, it's definitely expected to grow faster than the wider industry.
现在来看大局,我们可以通过将这些预测与过去的业绩和行业增长预测相比较,来了解这些预测的方式之一。根据分析师的预测,到2024年底,营业收入预计将以年化22%的速度增长。这与其过去五年的25%年增长率相一致。与整个行业进行比较,分析师的估计(总计)表明,收入将以13%的年增长率增长。因此,尽管预计信义光能控股将保持其营业收入增长率,但肯定预计其增长速度将快于整个行业。
The Bottom Line
最重要的事情是分析师增加了它对下一年每股亏损的估计。令人欣慰的是,营收预测未发生重大变化,业务仍有望比整个行业增长更快。共识价格目标稳定在28.50美元,最新估计不足以对价格目标产生影响。
The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. They also downgraded Xinyi Solar Holdings' revenue estimates, but industry data suggests that it is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target fell measurably, with the analysts seemingly not reassured by the latest results, leading to a lower estimate of Xinyi Solar Holdings' future valuation.
最重要的是,分析师降低了每股收益预期,表明在这些结果之后,情绪已经明显下降。他们还下调了信义光能控股的营业收入预计,但行业数据表明,预计其增长速度将快于整个行业。一致的价格目标明显下降,分析师似乎对最新的业绩不太放心,导致他们对信义光能控股的未来估值作出了较低的估计。
Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have estimates - from multiple Xinyi Solar Holdings analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.
牢记这一点,我们仍然认为,对于投资者来说,业务的长期轨迹显得更加重要。我们有多个信义光能控股分析师的估计,到2026年,您可以在我们的平台上免费查看它们。
Don't forget that there may still be risks. For instance, we've identified 1 warning sign for Xinyi Solar Holdings that you should be aware of.
不要忘记仍然可能存在风险。例如,我们已经确定了信义光能控股的1个警告信号,您应该注意。
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Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com
对本文有任何反馈?对内容有任何疑虑?请直接与我们联系。或者,发送电子邮件至editorial-team@simplywallst.com。