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Is China Publishing & Media Holdings (SHSE:601949) Using Too Much Debt?

Is China Publishing & Media Holdings (SHSE:601949) Using Too Much Debt?

中国出版传媒控股(SHSE:601949)使用过多负债吗?
Simply Wall St ·  08/02 22:26

Howard Marks put it nicely when he said that, rather than worrying about share price volatility, 'The possibility of permanent loss is the risk I worry about... and every practical investor I know worries about.' When we think about how risky a company is, we always like to look at its use of debt, since debt overload can lead to ruin. We note that China Publishing & Media Holdings Co., Ltd. (SHSE:601949) does have debt on its balance sheet. But should shareholders be worried about its use of debt?

霍华德·马克斯说得好,与其担心股价波动,不如担心“永久性损失的可能性……而我认识的每个实际投资者都会关注这个问题。”考虑到一家公司的风险程度时,我们通常会关注其债务使用情况,因为过多的债务会导致破产。我们特别注意到,中国出版传媒股份有限公司(SHSE:601949)的资产负债表上确实有债务。但是,股东们应该担心其债务使用情况吗?

Why Does Debt Bring Risk?

为什么债务会带来风险?

Debt is a tool to help businesses grow, but if a business is incapable of paying off its lenders, then it exists at their mercy. In the worst case scenario, a company can go bankrupt if it cannot pay its creditors. However, a more usual (but still expensive) situation is where a company must dilute shareholders at a cheap share price simply to get debt under control. By replacing dilution, though, debt can be an extremely good tool for businesses that need capital to invest in growth at high rates of return. The first thing to do when considering how much debt a business uses is to look at its cash and debt together.

债务是帮助企业发展的工具,但如果企业无法偿还债务,那么它就存在于债权人的掌控之下。在最坏的情况下,如果企业无法偿付债权人的债务,它可能会破产。然而,更常见(但仍然代价高昂)的情况是,一家公司不得不以便宜的股价稀释股东权益,才能简单地控制债务。但是,债务可以取代股权稀释,成为需要资本以高回报率投资增长的企业的极好工具。考虑企业使用多少债务的第一步是将其现金和债务结合在一起看待。

What Is China Publishing & Media Holdings's Net Debt?

中国出版传媒股份有限公司的净债务是多少?

The image below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that China Publishing & Media Holdings had debt of CN¥76.4m at the end of March 2024, a reduction from CN¥433.9m over a year. But on the other hand it also has CN¥5.99b in cash, leading to a CN¥5.91b net cash position.

下面的图片(可以点击查看更多细节)显示,中国出版传媒股份有限公司在2024年3月底有7640万元债务,相比于一年前的43390万元有所减少。但是,它也有599亿现金,导致净现金头寸为591亿元。

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SHSE:601949 Debt to Equity History August 3rd 2024
SHSE:601949资产负债率历史纪录(2024年8月3日)

How Strong Is China Publishing & Media Holdings' Balance Sheet?

中国出版传媒股份有限公司的资产负债表情况如何?

According to the last reported balance sheet, China Publishing & Media Holdings had liabilities of CN¥4.06b due within 12 months, and liabilities of CN¥1.17b due beyond 12 months. On the other hand, it had cash of CN¥5.99b and CN¥894.3m worth of receivables due within a year. So it actually has CN¥1.66b more liquid assets than total liabilities.

根据最近发布的资产负债表,中国出版传媒股份有限公司的短期负债为40.6亿,超过12个月的负债为11.7亿。另一方面,它有59.9亿现金和8,943万元应收账款还款期限为1年。因此,它实际上比总负债多拥有16.6亿的流动资产。这种盈余表明中国出版传媒股份有限公司拥有保守的资产负债表,很可能毫不费力地消除债务。简言之,中国出版传媒股份有限公司拥有净现金,因此可以说它没有沉重的债务负担!

This surplus suggests that China Publishing & Media Holdings has a conservative balance sheet, and could probably eliminate its debt without much difficulty. Succinctly put, China Publishing & Media Holdings boasts net cash, so it's fair to say it does not have a heavy debt load!

但是不幸的是,在过去的12个月中,中国出版传媒股份有限公司的税息前利润(EBIt)下降了17%。如果这种赚钱率的下降继续下去,该公司可能会陷入困境。毫无疑问,我们从资产负债表中了解债务的大部分信息,但中国出版传媒股份有限公司的收益将影响资产负债表未来的情况。因此,如果您渴望了解更多有关其收入的信息,您可以查看其长期收益趋势的图表。

But the bad news is that China Publishing & Media Holdings has seen its EBIT plunge 17% in the last twelve months. If that rate of decline in earnings continues, the company could find itself in a tight spot. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But it is China Publishing & Media Holdings's earnings that will influence how the balance sheet holds up in the future. So if you're keen to discover more about its earnings, it might be worth checking out this graph of its long term earnings trend.

最后,公司只能用现金偿还债务,而不是会计利润。中国出版传媒股份有限公司可能在资产负债表上有净现金,但仍然有研究其企业在利息和税前利润(EBIT)转为自由现金流方面的情况。这将影响公司管理债务的需求和能力。在过去的三年中,中国出版传媒股份有限公司记录的自由现金流总值为其税息前利润的84%,这比我们通常预期的要强。如果需要,这将使其偿还债务的能力更强。

Finally, a company can only pay off debt with cold hard cash, not accounting profits. China Publishing & Media Holdings may have net cash on the balance sheet, but it is still interesting to look at how well the business converts its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) to free cash flow, because that will influence both its need for, and its capacity to manage debt. Over the last three years, China Publishing & Media Holdings recorded free cash flow worth a fulsome 84% of its EBIT, which is stronger than we'd usually expect. That positions it well to pay down debt if desirable to do so.

虽然调查公司的债务情况总是很明智的,但在本例中,中国出版传媒股份有限公司的净现金为591亿,而且资产负债表看起来不错。最大的优点是它将EBIT的84%转化为自由现金流,带来了5620万元。因此,我们认为中国出版传媒股份有限公司使用债务并不冒险。毫无疑问,我们从资产负债表中了解债务的大部分信息,但并非所有投资风险都驻留在资产负债表上,甚至完全相反。例如,中国出版传媒股份有限公司存在3个警示信号,我们认为您应该意识到的。

Summing Up

总之

While it is always sensible to investigate a company's debt, in this case China Publishing & Media Holdings has CN¥5.91b in net cash and a decent-looking balance sheet. The cherry on top was that in converted 84% of that EBIT to free cash flow, bringing in CN¥562m. So we don't think China Publishing & Media Holdings's use of debt is risky. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. For example - China Publishing & Media Holdings has 3 warning signs we think you should be aware of.

毫无疑问,我们从资产负债表中了解债务的大部分信息,但并非所有投资风险都驻留在资产负债表上,甚至完全相反。例如,中国出版传媒股份有限公司有59.1亿的净现金和一张看起来不错的资产负债表。最大的优点是它将EBIT的84%转化为自由现金流,带来了5620万元。因此,我们认为中国出版传媒股份有限公司使用债务并不冒险。

Of course, if you're the type of investor who prefers buying stocks without the burden of debt, then don't hesitate to discover our exclusive list of net cash growth stocks, today.

当然,如果您是那种喜欢购买没有债务负担的股票的投资者,那么不要犹豫,立即发现我们独家的净现金增长股票列表。

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

对本文有任何反馈?对内容有任何疑虑?请直接与我们联系。或者,发送电子邮件至editorial-team@simplywallst.com。
这篇文章是Simply Wall St的一般性文章。我们根据历史数据和分析师预测提供评论,只使用公正的方法论,我们的文章并不意味着提供任何金融建议。文章不构成买卖任何股票的建议,也不考虑您的目标或您的财务状况。我们的目标是带给您基本数据驱动的长期关注分析。请注意,我们的分析可能不考虑最新的价格敏感公司公告或定性材料。Simply Wall St没有任何股票头寸。

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com

对本文有任何反馈?对内容有任何疑虑?请直接与我们联系。或者,发送电子邮件至editorial-team@simplywallst.com。

声明:本内容仅用作提供资讯及教育之目的,不构成对任何特定投资或投资策略的推荐或认可。 更多信息
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