What Investors Should Know About Yen Carry-Trade Unwinding That Is Sending Global Markets Into A Tailspin
What Investors Should Know About Yen Carry-Trade Unwinding That Is Sending Global Markets Into A Tailspin
Monday brought gloomy news for investors as the Australasian markets – the first to open, plunged hard, with the latest trigger being the unwinding of yen carry trades. What is this phenomenon? Does it possess the potential to scar the market for a longer term?
周一对投资者来说带来了阴郁的消息，作为首批开盘的澳亚市场急剧下跌，最新的导火索是日元融资交易解除。这种现象是什么？它有可能对市场造成长期伤害吗？
The Trade That Thrived: The yen carry trade, a popular strategy, results when investors take advantage of the ultra-loose monetary policy of the Bank of Japan, which maintained a negative interest rate for about eight years until March and at a very nominal 0-0.1% until late-July. This marked the first hike in 17 years.
蓝筹股的明星交易:日元融资交易，是一种热门的策略，投资者利用日本银行的超宽松货币政策获利，该政策维持了长达8年的负利率，直到3月才开始微弱地保持在0-0.1%的水平，直到7月底才开始出现首次加息，这是17年来的首次加息。
Global investors capitalized on this and borrowed yen at very low interest rates and used the capital to purchase investments denominated in another currency in a country that has a higher rate of return. This carry trade worked fine until Japan's interest rates remained at extremely depressed levels.
全球投资者利用此策略以极低的利率借日元，并将资本用于购买以另一种货币计价的投资，在收益率更高的国家进行投资。这种融资交易一直运作良好，直到日本的利率保持极低水平。
The Chinese yuan is also one of the favored currencies for carry trade.
中国元也是做融资交易的首选货币之一。
Subsequently, the BOJ announced an increment to its key interest in late July to around 0.25%,
后来，日本银行在7月底宣布将其关键利率提高至约0.25%。
What Went Wrong? After BOJ decided to do away with its ultra-loose policy, the yen began to appreciate against most major currency pairs. Since March 19, when Japan's central bank announced its first rate increase since 2007, the yen has appreciated 5.4% against the U.S. dollar.
出了什么问题？在日本银行决定放弃其超宽松政策后，日元开始对大多数主要货币对升值。自3月19日日本央行宣布自2007年以来的首次加息以来，日元升值了对美元5.4%。
The yen currently traded at JPY 143.05 versus the greenback, up 2.39%. Traders who resorted to this strategy are now staring at losses. The U.S. dollar assets they now hold, bought with borrowed yen loans, may be inadequate to make repayment, forcing them to unwind their bets.
日元目前兑美元交易价为143.05日元，上涨2.39%。采用这种策略的交易员现在正在面临损失。他们现在持有的美元资产是用借入的日元贷款购买的，可能不足以偿还贷款，迫使他们解除下注。
Weakening U.S. economic fundamentals are not helping the dollar's cause either. Recent data points from the world's largest economy have been sore. Manufacturing activity is contracting and job market strength is fading even as inflation, despite its cooling, weighs down on consumer spending.
美国经济基本面的疲软情况也未能有所帮助。世界最大经济体的最近数据点令人担忧。制造业活动正在萎缩，就业市场强度正在减弱，尽管通胀虽然降温，但仍给消费支出带来压力。
Ben Emons, Managing Director of Global Macro Strategy at Medley, sounded out the possibility of more pain. "The Yen carry trade unwind is far from over, with total net shorts being barely covered," he said on X.
Medley的全球宏观策略总监Ben Emons表示可能会有更多痛苦。“日元融资交易的解除远未结束，净空仓位仍然很少得到覆盖，”他在X上说到。
The Yen Carry trade unwind is far from over, with total net Yen shorts being barely covered pic.twitter.com/qNhVBwFhLp
— Global_Macro (@Marcomadness2) August 3, 2024
日元融资交易的解除远未结束，净空日元的头寸很少被覆盖pic.twitter.com/qNhVBwFhLp
—— Global_Macro (@Marcomadness2) 2024年8月3日
Japan's Nikkei 225 average plunged 12.40% amid the mayhem on Monday before settling at 31,458.42. This came on top of the 5.8% plunge on Friday. Intraday, the index slumped 13.4%, marking the biggest single-day drop since a nearly 15% plunge in Oct. 1987 on the day dubbed "Black Monday."
本周一，日本的日经225指数在混乱中暴跌12.40%，最终收于31,458.42。这是在周五暴跌5.8%之后。在交易日内，该指数暴跌13.4%，创下1987年10月被称为“黑色星期一”的近15%的单日跌幅纪录。
South Korea's Kospi had to be halted amid a plunge and ended Monday's session down 8.77% at 2,441.55.
由于韩国的Kospi指数下跌，当时被迫暂停交易，最终于周一下跌了8.77%，至2,441.55。
iShares MSCI World ETF (NYSE:URTH)ended Friday's session down 1.83% at $144.62, according to Benzinga Pro data.
iShares MSCI World ETF (NYSE:URTH)根据Benzinga Pro的数据，在周五下跌1.83%，至144.62美元。
Image Via Shutterstock
图片来自shutterstock