SD Guthrie Reaps From High Yields And CPO Price Gains
SD Guthrie Reaps From High Yields And CPO Price Gains
CGS has initiated coverage on SD Guthrie Berhad (SDG) with an Add rating and SOP-based TP of RM5.20, equivalent to 23.6x 2025F P/E, which is below its 5-year historical mean. The Add rating it said is supported by the projections of a fresh fruit bunch (FFB) yield recovery, stable to high CPO prices, and lower production costs.
中国银河已对SD Guthrie Berhad (SDG) 进行了覆盖评级，并给予增加评级和基于SOP的目标价RM5.20，相当于23.6x 2025F P/E，低于其5年历史均值。增加评级得到了新鲜果串收益的预测、稳定或高的CPO价格和较低的生产成本的支持。
The house believes the current valuation is reasonable in light of the strong recovery in net profit and projects over the next two years. Key downside risks include: i) weather negatively impacting production growth, and ii) stronger-than-expected competition from Indonesian downstream players.
该机构认为，在未来两年内公司业绩与投资项目的强劲增长将有助于稳固当前的估值，同时下行风险包括：i) 天气对生产增长的负面影响， ii) 来自印度尼西亚下游竞争对手的强劲竞争。
Yield recovery to boost productivity
CGS expects 5% yoy fresh fruit bunch (FFB) production growth for 2024-25F. For 2024F, the growth is primarily driven by strong double-digit recovery from its Malaysian estates following the filling of vacant harvester positions and ongoing rehabilitation activities.
产量恢复将提高生产力
中国银河预计2024-25F新鲜电站弯曲(FBB)的生产增长率为5%。在2024年，该增长主要源自于马来西亚庄园的强劲两位数复苏，这是由于填补空缺的采摘工职位和持续进行的康复治疗活动推动的。
However, this will be partially offset by declines at its Indonesia and Papua New Guinea (PNG) estates due to weather challenges. As for 2025F, we believe production growth will come on the back of better FFB yields at its Indonesia estates as they recover from the El Niño impact while FFB yields for its Malaysia estates should return to normal after the completion of rehabilitation works and sufficient skilled labourReaping the benefits of high CPO prices
然而，由于天气的挑战，这将在其印度尼西亚和巴布亚新几内亚(PNG)庄园部分抵消。至于2025F，我们认为生产增长将取决于印度尼西亚庄园的更好FFB收益，因为它们从厄尔尼诺的影响中复苏，而马来西亚庄园的FFB收益应该会在康复工作完成和足够的熟练劳动力后恢复正常。
CGS also said it is positive on SDG's net profit growth outlook on the back of its average CPO price forecast of RM4,000/tonne for 2024F and 2025F (2023: RM3,810) and improving yields. The house expects a net profit CAGR of 53% for 2023-25F on the back of production growth from FFB yield improvements and high CPO prices. SDG has the largest oil palm planted area among all the listed plantation companies in Malaysia (total planted area 568,323 ha as of 2023), every 5% increase in CPO price will lift SDG's net profit by 23% for FY25F, based on their sensitivity analysis.
中国银河还表示，基于其对2024F和2025F的CPO平均价格预测（2023年：RM3,810）和提高的产量，对SDG的净利润增长前景持积极态度。机构预计，2023-25F的净利润复合年增长率将达到53％，其中来自FFb收益提高和高CPO价格的生产增长。SDG在马来西亚上市的所有种植公司中拥有最大的油棕种植面积(截至2023年总种植面积为568323公顷)，每CPO价格上升5%，将根据它们的敏感性分析使SDG的净利润在 FY25F 上升 23%。
Unlocking shareholder value with new ventures
The house thinks re-rating catalysts for SDG could come from: a) its monetisation plan from its non-strategic/non-core assets (especially rubber land) with an annual proceeds target of RM500m-700m, which may lead to higher dividend payouts, and b) expansion into solar energy, with SDG investing in three sites under the Fifth Large Scale Solar programme (LSS5) and aiming for 1GW of renewable power capacity, with a potential investment of RM2.5bn
通过新的创业项目释放股东价值
该机构认为，SDG的再评级催化剂可能来自于：a) 其非战略/非核心资产的变现计划（尤其是橡胶土地），年收益目标为RM500m-700m，这可能导致较高的股息支付，b) 扩大太阳能的业务，在第五大型太阳能计划(LSS5)下投资三个场地，力争拥有1GW的可再生能源容量，潜在投资为25亿令吉。