share_log

Strategist Warns 'There's A Serious Collapse That's Coming' After Monday's Global Market Crash: 'Tons And Tons Of Yen Carry Trades...Have To Be Closed Out'

Strategist Warns 'There's A Serious Collapse That's Coming' After Monday's Global Market Crash: 'Tons And Tons Of Yen Carry Trades...Have To Be Closed Out'

策略师警告道:“在周一的全球市场崩盘后,有一场严重的崩溃即将到来:大量的日元套利交易……必须被平仓。”
Benzinga ·  04:07

Some sanity has returned to the market after Monday's swoon but a report said on Tuesday that investors should brace for more shakeouts in the coming days.

周一的大跌后,市场已经恢复了一些理智,但一份报告称投资者应该为未来几天的更多震荡做好准备。

Protracted Unwinding

拖延性减持

Market participants are worried about an extended sell-off and a contagion effect on other assets, primarily due to fears that the unwinding of yen carry trades will continue, said Reuters in a report. Zhe Shen, head of diversifying strategies at TIFF Investment Management, said, "We expect the sell-off to continue for maybe a few more days as usually these... trades are pretty large," Reuters reported.

路透社在一份报告中称,市场参与者担心出现长期的抛售,以及其他资产受到连锁反应的影响,主要原因是对负债日元交易解除的担忧。TIFF投资管理公司多元化策略负责人沈哲表示:“我们预计抛售可能还会继续数天,因为这些交易通常规模相当大。”路透社报道说。

Shen reportedly thinks people are biding their time to offload more of their financial assets. "People said 'wait, we're losing too much money from unwinding. Let's just hold and we'll unwind some more tomorrow.'"

据报道,沈哲认为人们正在等待时机去卸载更多的金融资产。他说:“人们说,等等,我们在解除负债交易时损失太多了。让我们坚持等到明天再解除负债。”

Complete unwinding of the yen carry traders will take days and this will potentially extend the market rout, the market strategist said.

市场策略师表示,完全解除负债日元交易需要数天时间,这可能会进一步带来市场动荡。

Ulf Lindahl, CEO of institutional investors advisory firm Currency Research Associates, shared the sentiment. "There's tons and tons of yen carry trades that still have to be closed out," he told Reuters.

机构投资者咨询公司货币研究协会的CEO Ulf Lindahl也表达了类似的观点。他告诉路透社:“还有大量的负债日元交易需要平仓。”

Hedge fund PivotalPath said the most affected by the unwinding are global macroquantitative and managed futures, as they have short exposure to the Japanese currency, the report said. The firm estimates that the yen's strength in August may have inflicted a l1.5%-2.5% loss for those funds' indexes, it added.

对于那些开空日元的全球宏观量化和交易期货者来说,解除负债日元交易将是最受影响的,据报道,PivotalPath对冲基金估计,日元8月份的走强可能使这些基金的指数损失了1.5%-2.5%。

Not Regular Correction

该报告还表示,一些资金管理人员已经在过去几天减少了风险,对冲基金在股票市场开始下跌时两周前开始解除负债。摩根士丹利在7月底表示,如果市场进一步恶化,宏观对冲基金可能在未来几周卖出110亿美元。

The report also said some money managers have already been reducing risk in the past few days and hedge funds started unwinding two weeks back when the equity market began falling. In late July, Morgan Stanley said macro hedge funds could sell $110 billion in the coming weeks if markets further deteriorated.

该报告还表示,一些资金管理人员已经在过去几天减少了风险,对冲基金在股票市场开始下跌时两周前开始解除负债。摩根士丹利在7月底表示,如果市场进一步恶化,宏观对冲基金可能在未来几周卖出110亿美元。

Kathy Jones, chief fixed income strategist at Schwab, however, told Reuters that the actual size of the positions and how much hedged may be tough to gauge. There could be derivates involved, prompting a "pretty sizeable reaction."

Schwab的首席固收策略师Kathy Jones告诉路透社,这些头寸的实际规模以及对冲多少可能很难估计。而且可能涉及到衍生品,引发了“相当大的反应”。

The Nasdaq 100's fall below its record high of 18,647.45 on July 10 is seen as a challenge for a " quick and sustainable bounce back."

纳斯达克100指数跌破7月10日的纪录高点18,647.45后备受考验,需要“快速和持续的反弹。”

Lindahl reportedly said most haven't unwound anything, thinking it is a regular correction. "This is a serious thing, it's not just the regular correction. You don't have gap openings for 4% or 5% in major indexes, and then they recover. There's a serious collapse that's coming," he said.

据报道,Lindahl称,大多数人认为这只是一次普通的修正,没有解除任何股票。他说:“这是一件严重的事情,这不仅仅是普通的修正。主要指数不会出现4%或5%的差距,然后恢复正常。它会出现严重崩盘的。”

The Nasdaq 100 on Monday opened at 17,444.40, down 5.40% from the previous session's closing price. Although the index was deep in the red throughout the session, it cut its losses, rising as high as 18,169.49, before settling off this level at $17,895.15.

纳斯达克100指数周一开盘时为17,444.40点,比上一交易日收盘价下跌5.40%。尽管该指数在整个交易日都处于下跌状态,但在涨到18,169.49点后,最终在17,895.15点附近收盘。

Also, the Japanese market, which kickstarted the global sell-off has rebounded and ended Tuesday's session up 10.23% at 34,675.46.

另外,日本市场在引发全球抛售后反弹,周二收盘上涨10.23%,收于34,675.46点。

The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY), an exchange-traded fund that tracks the S&P 500 Index, ended Monday's session down 2.91% at $517.38, according to Benzinga Pro data.

SPDR标普500 ETF信托基金(NYSE:SPY),一只跟踪标普500指数的交易所交易基金,周一的收盘价为517.38美元,跌幅为2.91%,据Benzinga Pro数据显示。

Image via Unsplash

图片来源:Unsplash

声明:本内容仅用作提供资讯及教育之目的,不构成对任何特定投资或投资策略的推荐或认可。 更多信息
    抢沙发